Portuguese Overseas Provinces

In 1975 Mário Soares after a round of negotiations recognizes the independence of the Portuguese Overseas Provinces. But how could this be different? Could Marcello Caetano had done anything so there was no revolution? Was a Portuguese Commonwealth possible as Spínola wanted? A federal Portugal as Gen. Kaúzla sugested? What could have the USA done, thinking of this as an episode of the Cold War?
 
hold everything

Thanks for bringing up one of my favorite topics.
The porugese kept their empire, because they understood the need to win over the locals. If I were given full power, this is what I would do.
Bring Spinola into the government sooner.
Double spending on the Alamedos.
Convince the Economics Professor, to give a primary defector from Frelimo the deputy Governor Generalship in Mozambique.
The Angola situation is easier, because FNLA, can be seducted and Unita redirected, MPLA was defeated before Cuba helped
 
Thanks for bringing up one of my favorite topics.
The porugese kept their empire, because they understood the need to win over the locals. If I were given full power, this is what I would do.
Bring Spinola into the government sooner.
Double spending on the Alamedos.
Convince the Economics Professor, to give a primary defector from Frelimo the deputy Governor Generalship in Mozambique.
The Angola situation is easier, because FNLA, can be seducted and Unita redirected, MPLA was defeated before Cuba helped

I would like to see a timeline on this - but could the Portuguese economy sustain a prolonged suppression campaign (even if it was more settled)?
 
I would like to see a timeline on this - but could the Portuguese economy sustain a prolonged suppression campaign (even if it was more settled)?

Angola and Moçambique were already under control of the Portuguese forces before the Carnation Revolution and the population did supported them.

The problem was that the military had enough, they wanted to come back home. That's why the revolution happened in the first place.

Maybe if Spinola was a bit more liberal and supportive of the MFA, the Federal plan could work.
 
Angola and Moçambique were already under control of the Portuguese forces before the Carnation Revolution and the population did supported them.

The problem was that the military had enough, they wanted to come back home. That's why the revolution happened in the first place.

Maybe if Spinola was a bit more liberal and supportive of the MFA, the Federal plan could work.

But the MFA was almost divided after the revolution. When Spínola tried to guarantee to the political forces that he was supported by what he called a "silent majority" on his federal plan, the PCP and the PS roadblocked every way into Lisbon. They simply wouldn't alllow for a federal Portugal.
The solution is to take out the part of the MFA controlled by the PCP, and only thing I remember is a civil war. Wich almost happened.
 
It would never have worked because of the bad history.

As I understand it, even though Portugual abolished slavery by the mid-1800s, it effectively stayed in place in Angola under the guise of forced labor (which wasn't abolished there until the '60s). This resulted in a plantation-style economy not unlike that of the pre-Civil War American South. Eventually Angola's plantation economy was replaced by a mining-based (copper) economy, also reliant on slavery.

Combine this with a tough dictatorship. Then add a huge influx of Portuguse immigrants after WWII--the Portuguese gov't offered it to make up for big unemployment after the war, and the white population went from something like 50K to 175K between 1940 and 1960. Being white, they did the usual White-Man-In-Africa stuff: took the best farmland with no compensation for the owners, conscripted natives to harvest crops for a salary of pennies a month, build railroads to the copper mines, etc.
Side note - Funny thing about this is that today the main Portuguese power is Brazil which is very active both economically and culturally in Angola, in Mozambique and somewhat in Timor Leste. Timor-Leste could have avoided what happened to there nation if the Portuguese had not decided to pack up and leave so fast without helping the Timorese set up a proper government and defense force. Same thing happened to Spanish Sahara when the Spanish just walked away. At least Timor-Leste managed to break lose from Indonesia.
 

MacCaulay

Banned
Thanks for bringing up one of my favorite topics.
The porugese kept their empire, because they understood the need to win over the locals. If I were given full power, this is what I would do.
Bring Spinola into the government sooner.
Double spending on the Alamedos.
Convince the Economics Professor, to give a primary defector from Frelimo the deputy Governor Generalship in Mozambique.
The Angola situation is easier, because FNLA, can be seducted and Unita redirected, MPLA was defeated before Cuba helped

I'm almost tempted to say that South Africa would find this much more amenable.
I can't say how realistic it is (to be honest, I only know a bit about the Bush War in Namibia and Rhodesia), but it seems logical that the South African government would be happier with a colonial power on it's northern border.
And lord knows what that would mean for Rhodesia...sorry. Of course I butterfly this out in the direction I know.

But I'm really interested in watching you guys hash this out.
 
Realistically, there is no chance whatsoever of a Federation with the colonial territories remaining part of Portugal. The best that could be hoped for is some sort of commonwealth like the British one.

I think it's really stretching reality to claim that the populations of Angola and Mozambique supported Portuguese rule.
 
I would like to see a timeline on this - but could the Portuguese economy sustain a prolonged suppression campaign (even if it was more settled)?

Well, this is hardly an attempt, but if Spínola manifestation had been supported by more radical groups we could have something like this.

Lisbon, Portugal
2nd July 1974

The voice of the woman on the other side of the intercom ended the silence in the room.
“Mr. General, Mr. Adelino Carlos is asking to speak with you. May he enter?”
“Let him in.” answered General Spínola.
The Prime-Minister Adelino, a conservite liberal attorney, rushed into the office of the President.
“António –he started- we have problems.”
“Even more? This whole thing is being a bigger problem than I ever excepted it to be. What is this time?”
“ Do you remember all the rumors about a manifestation in September to pressure you not to sign the law that MFA’s Coordinating Commission wants[1]? Well, it happened much earlier. They are on their way to Lisbon. It seems that some generals outside of the MFA[2], like Kaúzla and those extremists, of the António Sardinha’s group[3] have called for all the supporters. And the worst of all is that the communists and the guys from PS[4] have closed the roads and are waiting them outside Lisbon.”
“Oh, God. I knew it! I said to the Comission that the law was nothing but problems! I know how to handle things, I just need the power to do so! I’ve should have taken control earlier. Movement of captains…What can I do Adelino? No one controls anything, neither do I. Send someone to meet the communists, make them clear those damned roads. At least they shall see that I’m right when I say there’s a majority that doesn’t want to handover the colonies to those guerrillas.”
“And one more thing, António. Cunhal has just left the country and some people say he is going to have a meeting with the Soviets. If those guys start putting more troops and weapons into Africa we are screwed.”
“Is everybody mad? If things continue this way we are doomed.”

[1]This Commission, with the support of the left-wing parties, wanted Spínola to sign the law that recognizes the right for people in the colonies to be independent
[2]Movimento das Forças Armadas, roughly translated to Movement of Armed Forces
[3]In this TL, António Sardinha doesn’t die in 1925, and becomes the leader of the Integralismo Lusitano group. Nonetheless he is very old and is become less efficient in his rule.
[4]Partido Socialista, translated as Socialist Party
 
Good start, this might also change Palma Costa's fate in front of the government and the Portuguese constitution.
 
Good start, this might also change Palma Costa's fate in front of the government and the Portuguese constitution.

Thank you. Yes maybe Palma Costa can make something different. And maybe Spínola won't resign. This way he won't be liderating right-wing extremists groups, because as president he doesn't need it.
The constitution would be way different. First thing I think it wouldn't be finished by '76, because thsi way Portugal would enter in a civil war. Someone really could do a TL with this.
 
Thank you. Yes maybe Palma Costa can make something different. And maybe Spínola won't resign. This way he won't be liderating right-wing extremists groups, because as president he doesn't need it.
The constitution would be way different. First thing I think it wouldn't be finished by '76, because thsi way Portugal would enter in a civil war. Someone really could do a TL with this.

Palma Costa was working hard to pass a constitutional referendum for a more presidential democracy, instead of the current model of governmental power on the Prime Minister. His plan was rejected by everyone, including the State Council, which led to Palma Costa leaving the government in 18th July 1974.

Since the "silent majority" movement acts sooner, he might get his chance with his plan of referendum.
 
The Portuguese empire was an anachronism they were in the process of being kicked out anyway. India had siezed Goa back in 1961. The Portuguese economy was being crippled by the cost of military expenditure. The non-marxist guerillas in Angola were being backed by the CIA. The only possible allies Portugal would have had would have been South Africa. As for a commonwealth. Mozambique thought so much pf Portugal that it joined the British Commonwealth. It was a non starter there was too much antipathy. The question to be asked is what if Portugal trained a an elite to run the colonies after independence like Britain did

Thanks for bringing up one of my favorite topics.
The porugese kept their empire, because they understood the need to win over the locals. If I were given full power, this is what I would do.
Bring Spinola into the government sooner.
Double spending on the Alamedos.
Convince the Economics Professor, to give a primary defector from Frelimo the deputy Governor Generalship in Mozambique.
The Angola situation is easier, because FNLA, can be seducted and Unita redirected, MPLA was defeated before Cuba helped
 
The Portuguese empire was an anachronism they were in the process of being kicked out anyway. India had siezed Goa back in 1961. The Portuguese economy was being crippled by the cost of military expenditure. The non-marxist guerillas in Angola were being backed by the CIA. The only possible allies Portugal would have had would have been South Africa. As for a commonwealth. Mozambique thought so much pf Portugal that it joined the British Commonwealth. It was a non starter there was too much antipathy. The question to be asked is what if Portugal trained a an elite to run the colonies after independence like Britain did

Angola and Moçambique were under control of the military forces, with native support, right before the Carnation Revolution.

One has to understand the mentality behind the "colonies". The Ultramar weren't simple colonies, they were officially Portuguese territory, like any other zone of the metropolitan Portugal. The current Portuguese elite were born on the colonies.
 
But must say that even though Portugal could not keep its territories today it seems all the territories including Portugal are trying to work together
via "Community of Portuguese Language Countries"

Read this: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Community_of_Portuguese_Language_Countries


Cplp.gif

And then there is "Portuguese-speaking African countries" which is a separate organization.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Portuguese-speaking_African_countries
 
This is a TL I would also like to see written :), but I must point out the following:

But the MFA was almost divided after the revolution. When Spínola tried to guarantee to the political forces that he was supported by what he called a "silent majority" on his federal plan, the PCP and the PS roadblocked every way into Lisbon. They simply wouldn't alllow for a federal Portugal.
The solution is to take out the part of the MFA controlled by the PCP, and only thing I remember is a civil war. Wich almost happened.
PS didn't roadblock the entries into Lisbon, and they wouldn't cooperate with PCP.

A good link, and which may help you for a TL, is:
http://www.25abril.org/specific/25abril2/index.html

Remember that Kaúlza was important in the upper echelons of the dictatorship, but had no popular support, and that, by extendeing Sardinha's life, you affect a lot of things.
 

Thande

Donor
The Portuguese-speaking language community has a rotating symbol? The Francophonie and Commonwealth will be so jealous :D
 
Angola and Moçambique were under control of the military forces, with native support, right before the Carnation Revolution.

One has to understand the mentality behind the "colonies". The Ultramar weren't simple colonies, they were officially Portuguese territory, like any other zone of the metropolitan Portugal. The current Portuguese elite were born on the colonies.

This is an absolute truth. Angola and Moçambique recieved the status of "state" few years before the revolution. It was all walking to a federation. Even the book of Spínola "Portugal e o Futuro", implied such solution.
 
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