I would like to see a timeline on this - but could the Portuguese economy sustain a prolonged suppression campaign (even if it was more settled)?
Well, this is hardly an attempt, but if Spínola manifestation had been supported by more radical groups we could have something like this.
Lisbon, Portugal
2nd July 1974
The voice of the woman on the other side of the intercom ended the silence in the room.
“Mr. General, Mr. Adelino Carlos is asking to speak with you. May he enter?”
“Let him in.” answered General Spínola.
The Prime-Minister Adelino, a conservite liberal attorney, rushed into the office of the President.
“António –he started- we have problems.”
“Even more? This whole thing is being a bigger problem than I ever excepted it to be. What is this time?”
“ Do you remember all the rumors about a manifestation in September to pressure you not to sign the law that MFA’s Coordinating Commission wants[1]? Well, it happened much earlier. They are on their way to Lisbon. It seems that some generals outside of the MFA[2], like Kaúzla and those extremists, of the António Sardinha’s group[3] have called for all the supporters. And the worst of all is that the communists and the guys from PS[4] have closed the roads and are waiting them outside Lisbon.”
“Oh, God. I knew it! I said to the Comission that the law was nothing but problems! I know how to handle things, I just need the power to do so! I’ve should have taken control earlier. Movement of captains…What can I do Adelino? No one controls anything, neither do I. Send someone to meet the communists, make them clear those damned roads. At least they shall see that I’m right when I say there’s a majority that doesn’t want to handover the colonies to those guerrillas.”
“And one more thing, António. Cunhal has just left the country and some people say he is going to have a meeting with the Soviets. If those guys start putting more troops and weapons into Africa we are screwed.”
“Is everybody mad? If things continue this way we are doomed.”
[1]This Commission, with the support of the left-wing parties, wanted Spínola to sign the law that recognizes the right for people in the colonies to be independent
[2]Movimento das Forças Armadas, roughly translated to Movement of Armed Forces
[3]In this TL, António Sardinha doesn’t die in 1925, and becomes the leader of the Integralismo Lusitano group. Nonetheless he is very old and is become less efficient in his rule.
[4]Partido Socialista, translated as Socialist Party