Portuguese North America - The Unlikely Colony

With its nearly 3.5 million inhabitants in 1848 the United Provinces was dwarfed in size by its larger neighbours. Like its neighours, the country faced social and economic turmoil. Beginning in the late 18th century, there had been power struggle between two factions in the country, the Orangists, who supported the stadtholdership under the aegis of the William, Prince of Orange, and the Patriots, who supported the democratisation of the States General, with the most radical hoping to replace the stadtholdership with a republican form government. The Patriots had blamed the decline of Dutch naval and mercantile power on the House of Orange and saw a need to abolish or at the very least limit their role in governing the United Provinces, whereas the Orangists largely saw a need to establish a strong monarchy.

Economically, the Dutch Republic was suffering with a decline in exports and a rapidly increasing population. Dutch agriculture had suffered from a potato blight beginning in 1845, leading to famine. After Ireland, the Dutch Republic was the most potato dependent country in Europe, with food riots plaguing parts of the country by 1847. The famine would lead to an estimated 53,000 deaths between 1846-1849. Economically, the country was also ill prepared to face industrialisation. Unlike Britain and France, the Netherlands possessed no coal resources and the few steam engines in the country had to be imported. The first steam powered textile mill only was founded in 1830, and by 1850 the country only had 55,000 spindles producing mostly coarse cotton cloths to export to the Indies. The textiles were uncompetitive for the European market, and as a result, the Dutch exports lost market-share to the British and French in countries where the Dutch once dominated trade, namely Russia and the Ottoman Empire. Financially, banking remained important, but Amsterdam was surpassed by both London and Paris as Europe's banking and financial hub. Dutch sea power also declined as the Dutch Navy, once the most powerful in the world, ranked sixth in the world in size and Britain's Royal Navy by 1848. Additionally, the Dutch merchant marine it was slow to transition to steam power, relying almost exclusively on wooden sailing ships until the 1880s. Shipbuilding had been an important sector of the Dutch economy, but the lack of coal supplies hampered the embracing of steam power. As a result, by 1848 the United Provinces had fallen to the rank of a second-rate power. Discontentment in 1848 had reached its zenith.

Throughout 1847 and 1848 there had been calls in the press of the United Provinces to enact some sort of reforms to revive the Dutch Republic. Some were more radical than others, with some Dutch nationalists demanding an annexation of Flanders from France to create a "Greater Netherlands". The Stadtholder, William VI (1819-1886) was keenly aware of need to initiate some sort of reforms and rather than face the revolts occurring in neighbouring Germany and France, in March 1848 he called an assembly of the leading political thinkers of the country to draft a charter for a new government, transforming the Republic into a hereditary monarchy. The charter laid out the foundation for a government vesting executive power in the ministers of King, with legislative power in the hands of the States General. Modelled on the British system of government, the king would assume the role of mediator between political factions. Taking the title of William I, he was able to navigate the country through this "peaceful revolution" and the Kingdom of the Netherlands was born. Among the reforms was the establishment of direct elections for half of the members of the States General and the ridderschappen (aristocrats), the other half representing the States Provincial. In 1868, this was eventually supplanted by a bicameral system where the representatives of the States Provincial and ridderschappen sat in the upper house known as the Koninklijke Statenraad (Royal States Council). Among the other reforms was the nationalisation of the WIC (Dutch West India Company) and the VOC (Dutch East India Company), with private shareholders receiving compensation from the Dutch government.

King William I of the Netherlands

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Though the Dutch had declined vis-à-vis the other powers, the Netherlands still ruled an extensive colonial empire, with territories on four continents. With the abolition of the VOC and WIC officially taking place on 1 January 1851, a new trading company was formed by the Dutch government to encourage trade not only between the Netherlands and its colonies, but with the world at large. The Nederlandsche Handel-Maatschappij or NHM had a mission to expand Dutch commercial activity. Additionally, it would establish offices throughout the Dutch Empire to provide capital for projects and would eventually expand into various economic sectors. Like its predecessors it was a private company which issued publicly traded shares, however it was not responsible for colonial administration.

In an effort to raise company revenues from the East Indies, the VOC had implemented the cultuurstelsel or Cultivation System on the island of Java in 1829. The policy made it so that Javanese farmers were required to dedicate a portion of their farming activities to government mandated cash crops. One-fifth of all farm land was allocated to produce sugarcane, coffee, tobacco, pyrethrum or other crops. Additionally, rather than pay head taxes, villagers were required to work a minimum of 60 days per year on company plantations. The resulting boom in revenues led the system to be replicated in Ceylon, Sumatra and other Dutch possessions of the VOC. The nationalisation of VOC company assets in 1851 also led the Kingdom of the Netherlands to utilise the revenue on infrastructure projects at home along with paying slave owners in Surinam and the Cape of Good Hope compensation once slavery was abolished in 1878.

On the island of Ceylon, the Dutch waged a war against the Kingdom of Kandy on Ceylon between 1810 and 1818, finally controlling the entirety of the island. Cinnamon had been the island's primary export commodity, but by the 1830s prices were beginning to slump leading coffee cultivation to spread into the highlands of the former Kingdom. Having been introduced around 1740, its production was not encouraged by the VOC so as not to compete with that of Java. By the 1830s however, production grew so that by 1860 Ceylon had emerged as one of the world's major coffee producing regions. This boom would be short-lived, with a fungus first seen in 1868 destroying many of the island's coffee trees. Though the fungus would spread to Java by 1876, coffee production there would recuperate, in Ceylon it would be largely replaced by tea, so that by 1890 Ceylon was the world's second-largest producer after British India.

The VOC also held several enclaves on the Indian subcontinent, namely Negapatam, Pulicat, along the Coromandel, and Hooghly in Bengal, but by the 19th century these were of little economic importance and had been overshadowed by the larger French and British holdings that bordered them. On the Malay Peninsula, the Dutch control over Malacca had allowed the Dutch to excersise control over much of the Far Eastern Trade. In 1819 this was eroded with the British annexation of Singapore, though the Dutch were eventually able to establish control over several of the sultanates on the Malay Peninsula during the second half of the century. In the bay of Dejima, near the Japanese port of Nagasaki, however the Dutch continued to enjoy the fruits of a privileged trading monopoly with Japan, which was increasingly importing machinery and other goods from the Dutch.

In Africa, the WIC held onto half a dozen forts along the Gold Coast, mostly established during the 17th century to sell slaves to the Spanish colonies in the Americas, with the principal being Fort Nassau. With the abolition of the Atlantic slave trade by the Republic in 1837, the forts became superfluous. By 1850s however, the export of palm oil had given Dutch Guinea a new lease on life. In Southern Africa, the VOC ruled Cape of Good Hope which had emerged as the continent's preeminent settler colony. Controlling the strategic Cape of Good Hope had led other powers, namely France and Britain to eye as a strategic prize worthy of conquest. The territory exported largely wool to Europe and provisioned VOC shipping to the East Indies, but it was its geographical position which was made the territory so coveted. The threat of conquest had led the VOC to send 12,000 soldier/settlers to the territory between 1785-1787, so that by 1800, the colony had a population of 50,000 Europeans, nearly half of the total population.

The establishment of the a British colony at Natal in 1834 alarmed the States General, and the VOC was forced by the Dutch government to pay for the transport and settlement of 8,200 Europeans to settle along the western frontier along the Fish River. Of these, nearly half were Germans from Prussian-ruled Cleves (mostly from Duisburg), with the balance being Dutch and around 1,000 Scandinavians, mostly coming from Norway. This settlement meant to strengthen Dutch control instead would precipitate a war with the Xhosa whom were expanding into the region. Cattle raiding of the settler farms by the Xhosa would lead Dutch "commandos" to retaliate, leading to a state of war between the Dutch and Xhosa lasting until 1837. The Xhosa were forced to retreat east of the Keiskamma River, forming a buffer between the Zulus and the Dutch. The European settlers for their part were unhappy with company rule and in 1853 were finally granted limited autonomy with a legislative assembly called the Estates of the Cape. By 1851, the population of the colony had grown to 500,000, nearly two-thirds of whom were Europeans with the rest being Hottentots, and to a lesser extent, African and Malay Slaves. During this time, Dutch settlement pushed northward as well, a move which would transform the colony with the discovery of gold and diamonds in the 1870s.

In the Americas, Dutch Guiana remained the WIC's most important primary colony, with it producing over 50,000 tons of sugar, most of that cultivated by the nearly 200,000 African slaves imported from West Africa. By 1850, nearly 95% of the population were slaves, making this one of the highest ratios in the world and leading to runaway slaves forming maroon communities in the interior. After the abolition of slavery in 1878, Chinese and Javanese labourers were imported to work the sugarcane plantations, but shortly thereafter bauxite would supplant sugar as its most valuable commodity. The other Dutch colonies, namely the islands in the West Indies had for centuries served as conduits of trade between the Spanish Main and the outside world languished after the opening of Spanish ports to foreign commerce in the 1820s.
 
I want to restart this timeline, but I have been very busy with work and though I have a few ideas, I was hoping that some feedback for ideas of how the rest of the 19th century will playout. I imagine the shift in the balance of power with a Greater Germany emerging will inevitably lead to conflict. Additionally, Spain though just defeated by a nascent Italy still rules its empire in the Americas. Russia is looking at expanding into the straits, and this might be the next major conflict. Again, I would appreciate any feedback.
 
Good to see you're starting this TL again. As for feedback give a say to re read it again. I've kinda forgotten some parts.
 

Lusitania

Donor
I want to restart this timeline, but I have been very busy with work and though I have a few ideas, I was hoping that some feedback for ideas of how the rest of the 19th century will playout. I imagine the shift in the balance of power with a Greater Germany emerging will inevitably lead to conflict. Additionally, Spain though just defeated by a nascent Italy still rules its empire in the Americas. Russia is looking at expanding into the straits, and this might be the next major conflict. Again, I would appreciate any feedback.

I really liked the TL. What I would recommend is to think more about the butterfly affect. For example a TL that starts in 1500 would probably not have Pombal as prime minister when the 1755 earthquake occurs. But the earthquake does occur and another person similar to him, or even better than him could exists.

I will leave it to you to decide if there is an Iberian union. I ask you to ponder if Portugal is stronger or not as each decade goes by. What the economic benefit of terra nova colony has on Portugal’s finances and power.

For example I read that more Portuguese emigrated to Brazil by 1777 then British emigrated to 13 colonies at the start of the ARW. So what is the impact of the North America colony on Brazilian immigration.

Also do the larger and more powerful Portuguese suffer same loses to Dutch in the 17th century or they able to hold their own.

Before we get to 19th century does the stronger Portugal have greater capabilities to defend itself from Spain? While the 7 year war or equivalent does happen how will it play out in North America, South America and Iberian Peninsula? The same I am not sure.

Now for the 19th century that is 300 years after the POD. My first question is what is the result of the Napoleon wars (or equivalent). For those wars set in motion the eventual German unification. It showed Hapsburg weakness and Prussian growing power. After the war Prussia received a large portion of the Lands around the Rhine. Prevent that and you have different German unification. If one at all and not two or three germanies.

What of the Portuguese crown does it flee Napoleon and Spanish forces. Do the Spanish still side with Napoleon. For A Spain without Godoy might not side with France.

As for the British. Their loss of Hanover was due to British Queen in the 19th century. Have a king and they continue controlling Hanover. How would that impact Germany?

In writing your TL i suggest looking at the social, economic issues of each time period and try to determine if those still apply to your TL. For example the 1848 revolt of Europe, what were the triggers for it and will that happen and with different actors what do you think are the outcomes. The Irish famine is destined to happen although dates can change. How would that affect Portugal? We had a small but active Irish population in Portugal. It would make sense that it might be larger in your TL.

Good luck rewriting. Hope this helps.
 
Ehh, they would have lost everything to the British during the Iberian Union anyway

More likely to the Dutch, who conquered Angola and NE Brazil in that period.

OTOH, both those places were reconquered by Portugal after she regained her independence, and it is at least possible that her North American possessions might also be regained, esp if the Dutch hold it down to the period of the Anglo-Dutch Wars, when Portugal could probably do so with British acquiescence if not active support.
 

Lusitania

Donor
I think that rather than restart the TL, I might just continue it. Any good ideas for the rest of the 19th century?
Look at what I stated. Look at general social and political, economic trends and issues and determine how you wish to incorporate them into the TL.

Do you think Prussia will succeed in uniting Germany of do you think a western German leader could emerge to unite the various principalities and kingdoms into one larger Germany to oppose Prussia? How will Hapsburgs react?
 
Revolution in Spain
The revolutions in Europe in 1848, would not be without repercussions in Spain. Though not experiencing problems with its harvests during the 1840s, Spain's elite was nevertheless influenced by the current wave of liberal thought. Though it had managed to experience little turmoil in Spain itself, the war in the Italian possessions would shake the foundation of the Spanish Crown to its core. The once indomitable Spanish Armada was decrepit and with many of its ships were rotting in its dockyards as the better ships were in American waters. Unable to move troops from the Peninsula to Italy, the Spanish forces there were quickly defeated in a small number of skirmishes. The conduct of the war in Italy led to increasing pressure on the existing Regency Government of the kingdom. In September 1848, a naval mutiny in Cadiz followed by a popular uprising a week later in Madrid, would lead to the downfall of the Regency which had governed Spain since 1838. The council had been composed of thee Infantes, Juan, Francisco, and Luis, all of whom were younger brothers of the now deceased king. The princes three had all been born in the 18th century and were perceived by the Spanish liberals to be completely perceived to be out of touch with the modern world, and as a result were blamed for the country's backwardness. The Regency Council had governed the kingdom since 1838 on behalf of the young King Carlos V, who at the age of five had ascended the throne upon the death of his grandfather.

There had been popular uprisings in Madrid since August, though these were limited in size and had effective been put down by members of the Guardia Real (Royal Guard). There was growing discontent within members of the Spanish Army , however and this would lead to a confrontation with the Royal Guards. On 28 September 1848 Madrid, members of the army, made up of a coalition of liberals and moderates led by General Juan Prim marched on the Buen Retiro Palace in Madrid. They faced off with the Guardia Real, calling on the liberal Queen Mariana to assume the role of regent for her son. Rather than face bloodshed, the three infantes relinquished their control over the regency to the Queen. Though this role was largely symbolic, as power was in the hands of the governing junta. One of the most important tasks facing the junta was to organise the defence of Spanish North Africa as the Italians in Tunis had revolted. Infighting between liberal and more moderate factions would plague the junta for the rest of the war, however. Initially the junta was split into two camps, with the liberals having purged the moderates from the junta by August 1849. Led by General Prim, the junta called for a centralized government, a reform of the civil service and tax system, and a complete abolition of the remaining feudal privileges. They also wanted a General Cortes to represent Spain and its colonies. They however, needed to end the war in Italy. Their first act was to call for a cease fire and negotiating the cessation of the Kingdoms of Naples, Sicily along with the provinces of Tripoli, Tunis and Constantine in North Africa to the Kingdom of Italy. This was negotiated in September 1849 and a final draught of the peace treaty, Known as the Treaty of Rome went into force in December 1849.

The agreement to the Treaty of Rome was seen as a humiliating defeat by conservatives in Spain and its empire. The liberals had been seen as sympathisers with the emerging nationalist movements and were perceived as being unwilling to fight to defend Spain. The junta had further problems as its calls for a centralised government, encroached on the carefully guarded regional autonomy enjoyed in the Kingdom of Navarre and the Crown of Aragon. The two latter provinces were the wealthiest in Spain due to the success of the iron ore mines along with merchant fleet and banking in Navarred, and with the textile industry of Catalonia. For that reason, Basque and Catalan elites became wary of the liberals in Madrid. In Pamplona on 18 January 1849, the Viceroy of Navarre, the Count of Venadito repudiated the edicts sent from Madrid, an act which was supported by many of the infantes of the royal house.

This was soon followed by a similar act by the Viceroys of both Catalonia and Valencia. In Barcelona, the Viceroy, the 4th Marquis of La Romana rallied troops to send to Madrid and restore the natural order. Backed by the reactionary Catholic Church, the army increasingly turned against General Prim, and in March 1849 reactionary forces surrounded the gates of Madrid. On the 12 March after bombardment of the palace with artillery fire, Queen Mariana signed her abdication as regent. Both the Prim and the Queen were forced into exile, with the Queen fleeing to her native Vienna, never returning to Spain again. Infante Luis, Duke of Segovia and younger son of Charles IV now assumed the regency of Spain. He would now have the task of uniting various factions while preparing Spain for a greater threat.

Barcelona in 1848
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Peaceful Revolution in the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth
Having become a hereditary monarchy under the dispossessed House of Wittelsbach, the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth remained a largely agrarian multi-ethnic state acting as a buffer between the Russian Empire and Hapsburg dominated Holy Roman Empire. As a result of its situation, the Kingdom's rulers maintained an active alliance with France. In 1848, Poland was ruled by King Louis II (reign 1825-1867). Until 1848, the king's reign had been largely uneventful as he was dedicated to his mistresses and serving as a patron of the arts. Fascinated with mediaeval Polish architecture, he had many older churches and monuments preserved and restored. When the revolutions of 1848 broke out, the Commonwealth's ruling classes were caught off guard by the emergence of a powerful united Germany. Additionally, revolutionary turmoil would reach Warsaw in March of 1848.

Due to increased unrest in February 1848, the King had ordered the close of the university and as a result on 4 March a large crowd of students assaulted the Armoury with plans to storm the Royal Palace. King Louis' brother Prince Władysław managed to appease the protesters, but the intransigence of the King to negotiate with the protesters, led the Sejm to turn against him. On 18 March, he was persuaded by members of the Royal Household to sign a "Constitutional Proclamation" which would allow for the creation of a constitutional monarchy along the lines of Great Britain. During the next two months, members of a Commonwealth-wide convention elected by property holders drafted a new constitution which would limit the power of the King and give greater representation to the property owners and burghers of the cities.

On the 18 June 1848, a final version was approved and it contained several provisos making it among the most liberal in the world. Recognising the religious diversity of the Commonwealth, among the provisions included were one stating that the Roman Catholic Church was recognised as the dominant religion, though guaranteed tolerance and freedom to all religions. Serfdom was abolished, and within a short time, tenant farmers were replaced by wage labourers. Legislative Authority was vested in a bicameral parliament,with the lower chambre, called the Sejm and the upper chambre the Senate. The Sejm was a body of elected members from each of the counties of the Commonwealth, along with a number of electors from free cities. The members of the Sejm were elected by a group of electors, whom had been elected by qualified voters. The electoral roles were limited to male property owners over the age of 25 whom were literate and paid a minimum tax of thirty-five złotych in taxes per year. The Sejm's members were elected for a maximum five year mandated, but earlier elections could be called at the request of the king. The upper house, the Senate composed of members of the nobility Szlachta, was reduced to a largely advisory body. Members were appointed for life by the king and though they possessed the authority to initiate legislation, they could only excersise a suspensive veto over legislation passed by the Sejm. The King too could only possess limited veto power and when presented with a law, he could request another reading of it by the Sejm, but only once per law, or refer bills to the Straż Praw. The newly established Straż Praw (Guardians of the Laws) was a form of council acting as a the judiciary for the Commonwealth of Poland, comprised of the King and his ministers, the Primate of Poland, representing the church and the speaker of the Sejm. Throughout the 19th century, the body would eventually evolve into a form of supreme court for the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth.

Despite its relatively liberal constitution, the Commonwealth remained economically backwards with fewer than 80,000 of its workers engaged in industry. It remained a largely agrarian country, reliant on the production of wheat and other grains. The introduction of new technology did allow production to increase, and between 1822-1864 the production of wheat grew five fold, barley tenfold, rye and oats threefold. Despite these improvements, yield per acre was still less than half of that of France. The Commonwealth's largest industry was the production of spirits with over 3,000 distilleries producing 34 million gallons of whiskey annually by 1852. Nearly, one-fifth of the potato crop was used to make whiskey. The production of coal and iron ore was hampered by the lack of railways, with the country's single railway from Warsaw to Krakow having been inaugurated in 1846. As a result, urbanisation was slow with Warsaw being the largest city with 165,000 inhabitants in 1848. The second and third largest cities were Lwów 75,000, and Danzig with 65,000 inhabitants. The latter city served as the Commonwealth's principal port, but with over 80% of its population being German speaking, it was coveted by German nationalists as a territory to incorporate the Reich.
 
The African Slave Trade
In 1808, the Royal Navy had established a squadron based at Saint Helena to prevent British subjects from engaging in the West African Slave Trade. Initially limited to preventing British flagged vessels from engaging in the trade, the squadron would later be expanded to enforcing the complete abolition of the trade. In 1831, the British Government signed an agreement with Denmark to allow the West Africa squadron to monitor the Danish ports and in 1838 a similar agreement was made with the United Provinces to monitor enforce the abolition in Dutch ports. In both instances, the British government had paid £450,000 and £500,000 in agreement to the Danish and Dutch government enforce the provisions. During the 1830s and 1840s French, Spanish and Portuguese all continued the trade however, and there was increasing pressure by British abolitionists to pressure these countries to abolish the trade as well. Pressure from French abolitionists, led France to end the trade, whereas both the Portuguese and Spanish continued to exports slaves from Africa to America in greater numbers.

In Brazil, the increasing expansion of sugar production as well as the growth of coffee and cotton as well made it so that over 100,000 slaves per year were being imported into the colony. With the exhaustion of supplies from Angola, larger numbers were being sourced from East Africa and the Gold Coast, as well as from Senegambia. In the Spanish colonies, particularly in Cuba and Trinidad sugar production was increasing and some 45,000 African slaves were being exported to the Antilles alone. Another 25,000 were being shipped to New Spain, the Spanish Main and Peru. Additionally, there was a small but increasing business made by smuggling of slaves to neighbouring British colonies. This further incensed British authorities.

One way the British sought to combat the trade was by making agreements local rulers in Africa, so that they would abandon the trade. In Lagos for instance, in 1851 when they bombarded the slave port and installed their own ruler which not only ended the slave trade, but effectively made the territory a British protectorate. Additionally, in an attempt to dissuade Spanish slave traders in Sierra Leon, the British established their own settlement for freed slaves from the West Indies and North America. In Sierra Leon, over 100,000 freed slaves, were settled between 1800 and 1860.

Increasing British opposition to the Spanish and Portuguese slave trade would lead to more aggressive legislation aimed at limiting the Spanish and Portuguese trade, instead equating it with piracy. In 1851, the Aberdeen Act was passed by Parliament stipulating that slave traders could be arrested and be tried in British courts in Saint Helena. In September 1850, the British had raided Lomboko, a slave factory controlled by a Spaniard in Sierra Leon and tried him, provoking outrage in Spain and its colonies. Seen as an affront to Spanish sovereignty, the Spanish government sought to protect its rights by fortifying its Santa Isabel on the island of Fernando Poo to provide cover to Spanish ships in the Gulf of Guinea, which was now the center of Spanish slave trading in the region.

The following year, in June of 1851 a British ship, the HMS Comorant pursued two Portuguese flagged Brigs carrying slaves into the harbour of Luanda. This action led the commander of the fortress to fire on the British cruiser, causing damage to the ship. The Portuguese commander of the harbour then apprehend the crew of the ship. This would lead to a diplomatic rift between the two allies would almost lead to war, were it not for the manoeuvring of Portugal's ambassador to the court of Saint James, the Count of Lavradio. Realising that a war with Britain would be disastrous, he agreed that the Portuguese would pay an indemnity to the British in exchange. In exchange, the British would respect Portuguese flagged vessels trading in Portuguese possessions.
 
I'm curious about Alaska in this situation. I dont think the changes so far would change its situation in the 19th century so will it be sold and who would buy? Portugal seems the only contender to me, Britain and France dont have any land in the area, Spain could buy it but I doubt they will do the last peace treaty with Portugal giving them everything north of their border. I'm interested to see.
 
I'm curious about Alaska in this situation. I dont think the changes so far would change its situation in the 19th century so will it be sold and who would buy? Portugal seems the only contender to me, Britain and France dont have any land in the area, Spain could buy it but I doubt they will do the last peace treaty with Portugal giving them everything north of their border. I'm interested to see.
I agree Portugal likely buys Alaska, if it is sold.
If it isn't sold, that could result in interesting butterflies as well - it's not common on this site that you see the mere possibility of Portugal-Russian conflict over Russia!
 
I agree Portugal likely buys Alaska, if it is sold.
If it isn't sold, that could result in interesting butterflies as well - it's not common on this site that you see the mere possibility of Portugal-Russian conflict over Russia!
It depends. If some random dingus finds gold in Alaska early than Russia will try to keep it, if not, I think OTL fate is highly likely. Even if a war erupts between the two it would by an even worse Sino-Russo war for Russia. They wont have the large number of soldiers in the east at the start like they did in that war, no matter how not well supplied they are. Any serious possible fighting would be a Russian invasion of Portugal proper but I dont think that would go well.

What would be interesting is the butterflies for the Sino-Russo war if it happens. If they take a serious loss in that war, they might take an earlier initiative to defend their eastern terrorities. They could win or at least white peace Japan and annex Manchuria later, the butterflies for that would be nuts.

Also Hawaii is gonna be in a awkward spot, a lot of powers would like a naval base in the heart of the Pacific
 
It depends. If some random dingus finds gold in Alaska early than Russia will try to keep it, if not, I think OTL fate is highly likely. Even if a war erupts between the two it would by an even worse Sino-Russo war for Russia. They wont have the large number of soldiers in the east at the start like they did in that war, no matter how not well supplied they are. Any serious possible fighting would be a Russian invasion of Portugal proper but I dont think that would go well.

What would be interesting is the butterflies for the Sino-Russo war if it happens. If they take a serious loss in that war, they might take an earlier initiative to defend their eastern terrorities. They could win or at least white peace Japan and annex Manchuria later, the butterflies for that would be nuts.

Also Hawaii is gonna be in a awkward spot, a lot of powers would like a naval base in the heart of the Pacific
Would be interesting if a Luso-Russian War over Alaska ends in a white peace, and they give it to Japan as a way of compromising, to ensure that neither side has control over Alaska.
 
The Russian Giant
Of all the European states in 1848-1849, Russia remained unaffected by the revolutions that had swept Europe. Though it did intervene in propping up Prince Ion against rebellion in Wallachia, its governing class remained largely unshaken by the events that year. Considered by many intellectuals to be an intellectual and economic backwater, Russia's status a great power rested largely upon it having a population of around 65 million and possessing a sprawling empire. Tsar Alexander II, ruled as an autocrat and aimed to preserve Russia's system of government. More concerned with external threats, he sought to expand his empire, particularly at the expense of a weakened Ottoman Empire. His main goal was to secure control of Constantinople and the straits, if not for himself, at least for his nephew the King of Greece, keeping the latter as a Russian vassal state. With Hungary now a weak independent kingdom, he hoped that Russia could control the Balkans, including the Danube Principalities. Only Britain and France stood in his way, as both powers were keen on protecting their interests in India and keeping Russia from conquering the Ottoman Empire and advancing into the Middle East. The Portuguese too were wary of Russia's ambitions but for different reasons, hoping to contain Russian Expansion along the Pacific Coast of North America. Poland and Sweden also sought to prevent of Russian Expansion at their expense, and as a result both countries maintained treaties of alliance with the Ottoman Turks.

By 1850, Russia found itself diplomatically isolated, with Spain as Russia's principal ally with a Treaty of Alliance being signed between the two powers in 1825. Tsar Alexander II, sought to change all of this, as he knew that Russia would need a major power as an ally in any future conflict. He hoped to take advantage of the revolutions of 1848-1849 by rearranging the diplomatic map of Europe. Italy was seen as a potential new ally, with Alexander hoping to to entice the Italians to make a grab for Egypt in return for a free hand in the Dardanelles. Additionally, it was hoped that Italy could act as a bulwark in the Mediterranean against Britain and France. After the unification of Italy, the Russians attempted to stir rivalry between France and Italy as to which power could claim to be the protector of Roman Catholic pilgrims in Holy Land. With Italy on their side, it was hoped that the Russians could entice Germany into an alliance as well. Alexander saw Germany as a major land power, one which could potentially hold its own against France. Additionally a German Alliance could act as a bulwark against Poland and Sweden, forcing the latter two to remain neutral in any future conflict. These diplomatic overtures would be difficult however, as both Italy and Germany were emerging from revolutions and in no mood for major war during the 1850s.

Compounding to the Russia's diplomatic problems was its economic underdevelopment. Economically, the Russian Empire was one of the most backward parts of Europe, lacking in almost any industry or even a modern banking system. An overwhelmingly agricultural society, where over 80% of Russia's peasantry were farmers, a great deal of whom remained tied in mediaeval servitude as serfs. What industry did exist, was mostly extractive. During the 18th century, mines in the Urals had produced two-thirds of Europe's pig iron, but technological advances in Britain and Germany made it so that both countries outproduced Russia by 1815 and 1840 respectively. Textiles were produced mainly in the form of linens homespun by millions of peasants, but these were mainly for internal consumption. When large-scale industry did emerge, it relied on French and British technology. Such was the case with the emergence of cotton spinning in both Moscow and St Petersburg. By 1850, nearly 2 million spindles produced cotton textiles and cotton fibres providing the Russian internal market with cheap goods, but even there the output was only one-tenth of France's.

To stem this economic backwardness, Tsar Alexander II decided to invest heavily in industry, bringing in foreign advisers, particularly French and Germans to modernise the Empire. Among the main objectives was the building of new railways to more soldiers in times of war, and as a result, in 1849 the first railway link between St Petersburg and Moscow began. Additionally, railway lines crawled southwards to the Black Sea, as the Tsar prepared for an eventual assault on the Ottoman Empire. Further preparations were made made by expanding Russia's fleet with the first paddle steamers during the 1840s and further conversions of sailing ships to steam throughout the decade. The very first screw steamship was launched in 1851, allowing Russia to provide a formidable threat to Britain and France, particularly if war should break out. These preparations could not come soon enough as the first major European war of the nineteenth century would break out by the end of the decade.
 
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