Side part of a larger TL. Butterfly effects
No assassination of Carlos I in 1908. Also, Luis (his first born son) survives. Portugal limps on till the events described happens. In 1910 a WW1 analogue takes place in Europe, the Second Atlantic War (SAW)
Portuguese Civil War
The Portuguese Civil War is often regarded as a 'secondary front' to the greater Second Atlantic War. This too greatly simplifies the actual circumstances. The build up to the war was complex and involved. We will only give the briefest of outlines here.
For years the republican (and socialists) forces had been gaining strengthen int his nation, trying to overturn the hide-bound Monarch Carlos 1. Indeed the assassination attempt in 1908 only threw in sharp relief how dangerous the environment had become. The attempt on Carlo's life however did little to speed up negotiations. The royalists were too stubborn to permit any real change and Prince Royal Luis Filipe seemed to be in the same mold. On the other hand, the Republicans were very violent and while having many supporters, seemed ill-suited to taking over politically (or peacefully).
In 1910, Portugal was (for the third time) approaching bankruptcy. As with the other times Republican feelings ran high. This time would be different however. In the years building up to it, the more radical Socialists had planned for massive blow. On November 5th, the plan was given the go ahead. A massive crowd formed in Lisbon, and then stormed the palace. All across the nation Republicans factions and cells popped up in the Navy and Army and Portugal was basically shut down. Carlos was captured in his palace bedroom. The old man had hardly had time to dress let alone escape. The angry mob, in a fit of short-sighted anger, killed Carlos (in full regalia) in his own bedroom.
The rest of the Royal Family escaped however, and used the rally cry of the dead King as a banner as they fled to Spain. As the Royal family crossed into Spain, followed by Royalist forces, the Portugal Civil War had begun
Republican Reign
At first it seemed that their would hardly be a war at all. The Republican forces (concentrating on many mutinied vessels in the Navy) quickly assumed control of the government and many areas of the country. Till January the nation hung in the balance. The Royals were still on the Spanish border, in a Galacia. The monarchists forces either had fled with them, or were in hiding. It seemed that the revolt was over. Indeed, many British and French diplomats were already starting to jockey to renew treaties with the new government.
But despite this strong start the Christmas parliament crisis soon led to the dismantlement of the interim Parliament. This chaos soon led to the counter campaign by the Royalists. The first sign of this was the return of Henrique Couceiro from Angola. He had sneaked back into the nation and soon became a rallying point for many Royalists in the war.
As 1911 wore on, it became clear that most of the nation wasn't in the firm hands of anyone. International opinion was focused on the Saw so little intervention was made. The single exception to this was the habit of Spanish 'adventures' to cross the border and fight for the monarchist forces in Portugal. While many said these adventurers were funded by Madrid nothing was ever proved and many proved to be cunning and clever warriors.
The Turn of the Tide
By the summer of 1911, it was clear that the Republicans had a war on their hands. The infighting between the different factions hindered any comprehensive fighting to take place. In addition the heavy handedness of the Republican government hurt any real connection with the people. Mass conscription and brazen anti-clerical legislation didn't help Lisbon endear itself. On the part of the Monarchists, the image of Carlos gunned down in bed was printed in hundreds of posters and pamphlets. Many illicit print shops in Portugal ran thousands of such prints. This propaganda drive severed two purposes. One was to inflame public opinion and cause anger at the Republican government. He second was to show that the Royalists were still a force to be reckoned with, despite the fleeing of the King.
The “Republican Reign” was little more then a abstract concept in most of Portugal. Not only were Royalist forces fighting for the re-reinstatement of the King, but various factions were fighting amongst themselves for power. It was this 'warlordism' that led to the rise and return of the King in 1912.
The Return of the King
The battle of Vila Real set the stage for the next phase of the war. Early in 1912 while Couciero was winning battle sin the South, a Spanish supplied Royalist army poured into north Portugal. At its helm was King Luis, leading the army like a King from olden days. Indeed, he even had a fully operational calvary regiment, who would soon gain world wide fame.
As Luis proudly entered the nation, thousands turned out to greet him and offer aid. His ranks swelled immensely, as he asked for 'negotiations and peace' in Portugal. Indeed, many Republican officers, dis-enfranchised by the harsh and ill-run Republican government, turned back to the Royalist as Luis offered change and reform.
It was this well equipped and high morale army that was the greatest threat to the unstable government. Indeed, in response, Lisbon gathered the best counter-force they could. It was more modern (if not as well supplied) and had much more artillery. The force was lead by Joaquim Pimenta de Castro, who promised to 'disband' the force. The debate of his choice had raged for weeks, and had delayed the setting up of the army. Castro was deemed too 'monarch' friendly to lead such a crucial force. His political acumen and popularity had won the day in the end.
However, the government's qualms were proven correct as half way to Vila Real (the most recent supply area of the Luis's army), Castor deserted, along with a small number of officers.