Portugal's Return

[Finn]

What is the general likelyhood of the return of Portugal to independence from the Iberian Union? Is it almost inevitable, or one of those easily butterflied events that really shouldn't show up in every timeline?

 

[Hyperbolus]

It was substantially a consequence of the broader crisis in the Spanish Empire as a result of the Thirty Years War. Normally, Castille+ American silver+loans paid the bulk of the bills, but that was utterly insufficient after 2 decades of global war, so Olivares levied tax rises on Portugal, the Basque Country and Catalonia cover the shortfall. Portugal and Catalonia rebelled, the former successfully.
so butterfly the Defenestration of Prague....

 

[Anticlimacus]

It was not a tax rise, it was a project to make all the possessions of the spanish crown to cooperate in covering the expenses.

By the way the Basque Country was a XIX century invention. In the XVII century what would later be known as Basque Country was just a part of the Crown of Castille.

 

[The Ubbergeek]

I wonder if Portugal could and would ally with France instead of England...

 

[SavoyTruffle]

It was not a tax rise, it was a project to make all the possessions of the spanish crown to cooperate in covering the expenses.

By the way the Basque Country was a XIX century invention. In the XVII century what would later be known as Basque Country was just a part of the Crown of Castille.

Before that it was part of Navarre, however.

I wonder if Portugal could and would ally with France instead of England...

Well, Portugal could ask the French help against the Castilians, but they really liked the Anglo-Portuguese Alliance, even if England was more erratic on the matter.

 

[Anticlimacus]

Before that it was part of Navarre, however.

Well. It was a complex history...

First of all they were somewhat related to the Asturias crown (VIII-IX centuries) then they looked in Pamplona and became a navarran county (in the X century). When Castille was fighting for their independence from Leon the basque lordships made a common cause with them in order to gain independence from Navarre.
Vizcaya moved from Navarre to Castille in the XIII and remained as an independent Lordship separated from the crown (they tried to join the crown but they were vetoed by other castillian towns).
Alava was incorporated to Navarre until the XI century then to Castille until the XIII century and back to Castille. Guipuzcoa was castillian from the XII onwards with small periods of navarre dominance.
One more thing the basque lordships were the first political entities to use castillian (spanish) as their official language.

 

[Gonzaga]

I wonder if Portugal could and would ally with France instead of England...

It depends on when it happens. IOTL Portugal did ally with the French against the Castilians during the independence conflict. There were even talks about marrying Catherine of Braganza to Louis XIV.

But I agree that if Spain isn't so busy fighting in the 30 Years War and putting down a rebellion in Catalonia then the Portuguese wouldn't rebell. There would still be political conflict with the court in Madrid, but not to the point of war.