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Suppose Dom Miguel dies in a riding accident in the early-to-mid 1820s, removing the standard around which the absolutist factions gathered, as well as the obvious alternative to Dom Pedro. It's probably reasonable to suggest that Dom Pedro avoid dying of tuberculosis that long after the POD, as well.

Given all that, is Portugal able to avoid a civil war, and settle into a new constitutional system relatively peacefully? Obviously the opposition to the liberals doesn't go away, and they haven't been defeated in an actual conflict, but nor has the country itself been weakened by such a war.

If Dom Pedro's constitutional compromise manages to survive, what are the effects upon the Portuguese Empire, and the Brazilian monarchy itself? Maybe Portugal isn't influential enough to serve as a successful European example in general, but might liberal reformers take some lessons from its experience regardless?
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