Portugal Without the Liberal Wars

Suppose Dom Miguel dies in a riding accident in the early-to-mid 1820s, removing the standard around which the absolutist factions gathered, as well as the obvious alternative to Dom Pedro. It's probably reasonable to suggest that Dom Pedro avoid dying of tuberculosis that long after the POD, as well.

Given all that, is Portugal able to avoid a civil war, and settle into a new constitutional system relatively peacefully? Obviously the opposition to the liberals doesn't go away, and they haven't been defeated in an actual conflict, but nor has the country itself been weakened by such a war.

If Dom Pedro's constitutional compromise manages to survive, what are the effects upon the Portuguese Empire, and the Brazilian monarchy itself? Maybe Portugal isn't influential enough to serve as a successful European example in general, but might liberal reformers take some lessons from its experience regardless?
 
I think it's as simple as you say. No Dom Miguel, no civil war. The Absolutitsts will still be there, they'll probably gather around as a Traditionalist faction in the Parliament but they won't try to take over the country if they have no king to accept ruling that way.

What they could try to do is get someone absolutist to take over as regent during Dona Maria II's minority but the question is... who? Possibly the Duke of Cadaval but... mheh! They're not getting the same opportunity they got IOTL when Dom Miguel was nominated the "constitutional" regent.
TTL's constitutional regent will probably be Dona Maria da Assunção, Dom Pedro's sister.

I don't think butterflies will save Dom Pedro's reign in Brazil but he'll have a less obvious excuse to abdicate and self-exile without being in outright disgrace.
 
I think it's as simple as you say. No Dom Miguel, no civil war. The Absolutitsts will still be there, they'll probably gather around as a Traditionalist faction in the Parliament but they won't try to take over the country if they have no king to accept ruling that way.

How do you think this would affect Portugal's politics as time goes on? If the absolutists implicitly accept the constitution and Parliament by working through it, might that improve or stabilize political culture in general?

Another question occurs to me--Who might Pedro's daughter Maria end up marrying? Unlike OTL, she wouldn't be at foreign capitals in exile, or promised in marriage to Miguel.
 
How do you think this would affect Portugal's politics as time goes on? If the absolutists implicitly accept the constitution and Parliament by working through it, might that improve or stabilize political culture in general?
The Carta Constitucional of 1826 wasn't exactly radical, so I believe Traditionalists over the decades could eventually grow into accepting that living under a constitution doesn't make Jesus cry...

As soon as the Civil War was over IOTL, the liberals became bitterly divided between "right-wing" and "left-wing" for decades. If there are Traditionalists with so much power, I'd say this means that the political spectrum will tilt more to the right. Having 3 powerful political forces is unlikely as the regime favors rotativism.

Another question occurs to me--Who might Pedro's daughter Maria end up marrying? Unlike OTL, she wouldn't be at foreign capitals in exile, or promised in marriage to Miguel.
I won't even begin guessing here. :) Most Catholic princes are suitable...
 
The Carta Constitucional of 1826 wasn't exactly radical, so I believe Traditionalists over the decades could eventually grow into accepting that living under a constitution doesn't make Jesus cry...

As soon as the Civil War was over IOTL, the liberals became bitterly divided between "right-wing" and "left-wing" for decades. If there are Traditionalists with so much power, I'd say this means that the political spectrum will tilt more to the right. Having 3 powerful political forces is unlikely as the regime favors rotativism.
It's quite possible that the the post-Absolutists while moderating over the years, might take some political space of the OTL Regenerators (Conservatives), while the Regenerators might shift a bit to the centre and become a bit more constitution friendly (and a bit more conservative liberal, rather than conservative), but this would still leave some fringes in said party (liberal conservatives - most of OTL Progressive Party, IRRC) that might form other party at a certain point. The more left-wing elements inside what was the OTL Progressive party might enlarge the ATL Socialist Party or the ATL Republican Party.
 
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