Portugal turns violent in dispute over Olivença (Olivenza)

With a PoD at 1980, is there any way this disputed region could have ignited at least limited military action on the part of Portugal?

A friend was wondering. :D

After 1980? Nahhhh! :)
Not even the fascist nationalist regime bothered to take a shot at it when they had an easy chance to retake it in 1936.
So, no, a regime change in Portugal isn't going to do it.
With a PoD this late, only if Spain turns fascist again and Spain is the aggressor.
 
Successful 1981 coup :eek: Then try to work something from that.

If that coup is successful the new regime must be highly repressive because it will never be well accepted by the majority of the Spaniards.
Afterwards Spain can invade Portugal, effectivily "pulling a Falklands" (i.e. creating a distractive war in order to appeal to the common man's nationalism and ease the internal unrest situation).
Spain knows it will have to face NATO so it's an act of desperation much like the Falklands War was. I once proposed an analogue but even crazier scenario.:D
Portugal will keep Olivença in the end.
 
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