Portugal in CP victory world after much more limited WW1

So, what would Portugal do and look like in the postwar decades? Could the Portuguese monarchy be still saved with a POD in early 1900s? And how would Portuguese neutrality in WW1 affect their internal situation? Are there any credible alternatives to the PRP-controlled First Republic and later dictatorships?

This is the world we're talking about, to cut the long story short:
POD comes around roughly at the time of the First Moroccan Crisis. Relations between the political and military leadership of Germany improve a little, while the focus of military spending is gradually turned to favour the army at he expense of navy, after the German diplomats manage to secure an Anglo-German Naval Treaty with Britain.

Later on, starting from roughly around the time of OTL WW1, Germany and Austria-Hungary fight against Serbia, France and Russia, with the Germans focusing to the Eastern Front and leaving Belgium alone while standing on the defensive in Alsace-Lorraine. Britain, being uneasy to see the conflict threaten the status quo that favours them, is temporarily distracted by the violence in Ireland due the Home Rule Crisis, but nevertheless gears up for war and starts to pressure the Central Powers to end the conflict.

Germans, with their war effort led by von Falkenhayn and political leadership more in step with reality than in OTL, are happy to offer Russians terms after a revolution in the country forces Nicholas II to abdicate and turns the former empire into Russian Republic led by shaky coalition of Mensheviks, SRs and Kadets. Loss of most of Russian Poland and the Baltic provinces (including Finland) is a harsh deal, but with their sole remaining ally bogged down in the trenches of Western Front and their internal situation volatile, the Russian government led by Grigory Gershuni ultimately agrees on the terms on autumn 1917. Following this the British diplomatic pressure and covert threats of intervening to the conflict on the side of France force the war-weary combatants to the negotiation table. While their European borders remain virtually unchanged from pre-war status quo due British insistence, France still loses Djibouti, their rights in Morocco, Guangzhouwan Concession from southern China and some territory in Congo and Camerun to Germany. While outright revolution is averted, the bitter result of the bloody conflict still causes great upheaval in the French society.

In the postwar years Germany is busy organizing their new Baltic puppets (United Baltic Duchy and Kingdom of Finland) and arguing with Austria-Hungary about their joint rights in the Kingdom of Poland (ruled by a Hapsburg and mostly controlled from Vienna - the TTL Austro-Hungarian war effort was much more succesfull than in OTL and captured large parts of Russian Poland in 1914)
 
So, what would Portugal do and look like in the postwar decades?

My bet is that the First Republic will decay into a muddy existence anyway.

Furthermore, on the scenario you propose for this alternate WW1 Britain and Germany are not enemies. This means that they're free to go through with their OTL naughty ploy to force Portugal to default on its loans and divide its empire between the two. At the very least Mozambique.

Could the Portuguese monarchy be still saved with a POD in early 1900s?
Yes. No PoD is obvious though. My favorite: a failed 1908 regicide.

And how would Portuguese neutrality in WW1 affect their internal situation?
This ATL WW1 is more limited, if Britain is neutral there's much less pressure to choose a side. Given that, the war shouldn't affect the political landscape so much.

Are there any credible alternatives to the PRP-controlled First Republic and later dictatorships?
Not many. The First Republic was a mess by its own flawed design. It replaced a warn out monarchy that knew it had to reform itself but wasn't sure how.
 

Flubber

Banned
Furthermore, on the scenario you propose for this alternate WW1 Britain and Germany are not enemies. This means that they're free to go through with their OTL naughty ploy to force Portugal to default on its loans and divide its empire between the two. At the very least Mozambique.


That's a very important point.

The UK and Germany came to secret agreements twice concerning Portugal and her empire. The first in the 1890s assumed a Portuguese default would occur soon and that her empire would be put up for sale. The UK and Germany agreed to shut out all other buyers. In the second, the UK and Germany agreed to force a default. They alone would lend Portugal money and prevent other powers from doing the same.

Here's the kicker: the second agreement took place in 1914. That's right, 1914, after invasion scares, naval races, the Boer War, signing the Entente, the British Army planning to support the French, the Daily Mail interview, Fisher seriously planning a pre-emptive strike on the HSF, and all the rest, the UK sat down with Germany, the very power she was counting on fighting, to plan on how Portugal's empire would best be divided.
 
The problem with Portugal is...

It's a small country with limited natural resources that always aims a lot higher than it can afford, and has, a lot of times in its history, managed to somehow work out some scheme to pay the bills.
When the sea trade scheme and the slave trade scheme dried out, we scored big with gold in Brasil. Without Brasil's gold we would have either have to find a way to make the colonies generate a profit, or face bankruptcy.
And turning a profit in underdeveloped colonies without a strong national industrial base would be very hard.
We need a POD that puts a genius in power in Portugal in the late 18th century and have him use the gold from Brasil to launch a British style economical revolution, while preventing us from being invaded in 1807, and follow up with another genius that keeps us competitive in the early 19th century, followed by a third one that turns a properly developed empire into a Comonwelth before WW1.
We need a lot of bats. Then again, we did it in the 15th century...
 
I believe that with a POD around 1906, the Monarchy was already too discredited by the British Ultimatum, but the avoidance of João Franco's dictatorship could prolong its life.
That's a very important point.

The UK and Germany came to secret agreements twice concerning Portugal and her empire. The first in the 1890s assumed a Portuguese default would occur soon and that her empire would be put up for sale. The UK and Germany agreed to shut out all other buyers. In the second, the UK and Germany agreed to force a default. They alone would lend Portugal money and prevent other powers from doing the same.

Here's the kicker: the second agreement took place in 1914. That's right, 1914, after invasion scares, naval races, the Boer War, signing the Entente, the British Army planning to support the French, the Daily Mail interview, Fisher seriously planning a pre-emptive strike on the HSF, and all the rest, the UK sat down with Germany, the very power she was counting on fighting, to plan on how Portugal's empire would best be divided.
Furthermore, on the scenario you propose for this alternate WW1 Britain and Germany are not enemies. This means that they're free to go through with their OTL naughty ploy to force Portugal to default on its loans and divide its empire between the two. At the very least Mozambique.
If Portugal's African Empire get's a partial partition from Britain and Germany, the Portuguese Monarchy can't survive this.

And how would Portuguese neutrality in WW1 affect their internal situation?
This ATL WW1 is more limited, if Britain is neutral there's much less pressure to choose a side. Given that, the war shouldn't affect the political landscape so much.
If Portugal is a monarchy, neutrality helps prolong it. If it's a republic, it might butterfly episodes like Sidónio Pais ruling.

Are there any credible alternatives to the PRP-controlled First Republic and later dictatorships?
Not many. The First Republic was a mess by its own flawed design. It replaced a warn out monarchy that knew it had to reform itself but wasn't sure how.
The only thing I can conceive (excluding an invasion that reinstall the Monarchy, or a right wing dictatorship that reinstalls the monarchy for a Spain like transition), is somehow destroying the dominant wing of the PRP (the "Democratics"*, or rather the Bonzo** faction of it). Without Afonso Costa's*** followers in power, the remains of the PRP, its right-wing splinters, the (historical) Socialists and the Catholic Parties could make a somewhat functional First Republic.

*Their nick-name, after the first splinters;
**A nickname for the dominant faction inside the rump, in essentia, the right-wing of that rump, which for todays' standards would be centrist (in the tradition of the French Radical Party).
***For strange it may seem, most of the other parties (on the right and left) defended more progressive ideas than them, like (re)-enlarging the electoral franchise and extend it further, allowing more freedom to Unions, more conciliatory policies with the Catholic Church and Monarchists, less patronage, etc


Edit: corrected a typo that gave the opposite impression of what I meant.
 
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Yes. No PoD is obvious though. My favorite: a failed 1908 regicide.

This could be interesting. What about the later proposed royal marriage with Britain, do you know who was the British princess they had in mind?

I believe that with a POD around 1906, the Monarchy was already too discredited by the British Ultimatum, but the avoidance of João Franco's dictatorship could prolong its life.

If Portugal's African Empire get's a partial partition from Britain and Germany, the Portuguese Monarchy can't survive this.

If Portugal is a monarchy, neutrality helps prolong it. If it's a republic, it might butterfly episodes like Sidónio Pais ruling.

Good points - having the monarchy limp over the interwar decades to 1930s only to face a major crisis due Anglo-German plans to divide the colonies sounds like an entertaining storyline.
 
This could be interesting. What about the later proposed royal marriage with Britain, do you know who was the British princess they had in mind?

I didn't even know there was such proposal at that time. The last time that I know of a Portuguese royal that ever wanted to marry a British princess was Pedro V, Carlos I's uncle...

EDIT: Anyway, after a small research, the British Royal that Manuel II tried to marry to was Louise Mountbatten.
 
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