Portugal divides Angola

I really see no more grounds for a partition of Portuguese Angola than I do for a partition of French Algeria. In both cases, the populations of the colonized and the colonizers are too intermixed for anything short of a brutal partition with massive population exchanges to create a division.

Not really. Portuguese settlers only really began to arrive to Angola in large numbers in the late 40s, early 50s. It was nothing like French Algeria where the colonists had been there since the 19th century and had strong ties to the land. Also, the vast majority of the Portuguese colonial population was urban and did live in the northern coastal areas (agricultural interior colonization never went anywhere). This wouldn't require massive forced relocations at all.

Also, I don't see why integrating 3 million blacks would be a problem.
 
The assimalados had equal rights

Ah yes, the assimilados, AKA like 2% of mixed race, and only 0.8% (IIRC) of the african population.

Also the requirement to become one was stupidly high IIRC. As always the answer for a better 20th century for portugal always has to come to education, education, education, make reforms in the 30s


I really see no more grounds for a partition of Portuguese Angola than I do for a partition of French Algeria. In both cases, the populations of the colonized and the colonizers are too intermixed for anything short of a brutal partition with massive population exchanges to create a division.

Intermixed? If you mean a mixed population, it was as i said very low, and most in cities, as for the white population was overwhelmingly Urban (mostly coastal cities+ Huambo/Nova Lisboa), outside it was either plantation owner, small traders or soldiers, the countryside white farmer population was very low (a few thousand), and the countryside settlement effort in the 60s failed spectacularly (the whites often had worse output than the native they took land from, and there are even accounts of MPLA insurgent taking pity of them and deciding not to attack them).

Any "partition" of angola that aims to limit settler movement would have to include all the coast and would result in a large african majority, a north-western state would need the movement of over a hundred thousand white settlers.

Mozambique's settler population was much more focused in the south (beside it only beira had a large population), a state entirely south of the save river could very well work demographically, especially if angolans settlers are moved there. Only problem is that it would be at the mercy of south africa economically and politically and portugal would always be seen as an ally of apartheid (and if they try to oppose South Africa, the latter will just cut most trade and will make that southern mozambican state's economy collapse)


Also, I don't see why integrating 3 million blacks would be a problem.

In the immediate it won't, but inequalities will stay, in the long run (after a decade or two) you're going to have a Northern Irish/New Caledonian problem on steroid. Expect a second insurgency in the 80s/90s that will cause thousands of additional death. I'm not even talking about immigration from neighbouring countries which will be a huge problem (although it could potentially be an issue both independantist and loyalist sides would agree with).

Ideally you'd want to maybe send a million or so of native angolans to the portuguese mainland, where they would hopefully assimilate, and at the same time open the gate to brazilian immigration (2 million brazilian left, mostly to the US, in the 80s-2000s, only 150-200k went to Portugal IRL, that number can be boosted especially if luanda is a quickly developping city.
 
Ah yes, the assimilados, AKA like 2% of mixed race, and only 0.8% (IIRC) of the african population.

Also the requirement to become one was stupidly high IIRC. As always the answer for a better 20th century for portugal always has to come to education, education, education, make reforms in the 30s




Intermixed? If you mean a mixed population, it was as i said very low, and most in cities, as for the white population was overwhelmingly Urban (mostly coastal cities+ Huambo/Nova Lisboa), outside it was either plantation owner, small traders or soldiers, the countryside white farmer population was very low (a few thousand), and the countryside settlement effort in the 60s failed spectacularly (the whites often had worse output than the native they took land from, and there are even accounts of MPLA insurgent taking pity of them and deciding not to attack them).

Any "partition" of angola that aims to limit settler movement would have to include all the coast and would result in a large african majority, a north-western state would need the movement of over a hundred thousand white settlers.

Mozambique's settler population was much more focused in the south (beside it only beira had a large population), a state entirely south of the save river could very well work demographically, especially if angolans settlers are moved there. Only problem is that it would be at the mercy of south africa economically and politically and portugal would always be seen as an ally of apartheid (and if they try to oppose South Africa, the latter will just cut most trade and will make that southern mozambican state's economy collapse)




In the immediate it won't, but inequalities will stay, in the long run (after a decade or two) you're going to have a Northern Irish/New Caledonian problem on steroid. Expect a second insurgency in the 80s/90s that will cause thousands of additional death.

Ultimately, will it be worth it to Portugal?
 
Ultimately, will it be worth it to Portugal?

Depends if it slows down the integration to the EU or Alt-EU....

If it doesn't, it's still hard to say, yes portugal will have a larger population and a larger gdp likely, but the unstable angolan politics will necessarily spill over in the mainland and the larger state, the larger immigration to the mainland (many angolans would prefer to be in portugal proper, and so in europe, than in africa) will also create additional society issues.

The oil revenue (that also depends if they keep cabinda) will be huge too, and you could have a bad case of dutch disease, if they keep cape verde it will also develop as an important northern european touristic destination (especially once low cost flights appear), at the expense of the Algarve (but i'm biaised here since i'm from the Algarve :p), it will also mean a necessarily larger military budget (which can be good or bad ofc), portugal army's may be larger than spain's ! (which it was IRL during the colonial war).

East timor could replace Bali as the main touristic destination for Australian, but generally it would be given a lot of autonomy and it wouldn't reallly beneficiate portugal proper. Sao tomé would be ignored and the only interesitng thing about it would be that it would constantly be at the bottom of ranked list of developped/wealthy european regions.

If it does slow down significantly or completly european integration, then no, it won't be worth it under any circumstance.
 

Anawrahta

Banned
First off that Portugal give up one inch of its overseas provinces is blasphemy. See Lusophone world for clear example how to keep it.

But lets say that POD is 1962 when Portugal looses India and the Portuguese government also witness a revolt and Salazar removed but estado Novo remains. A decision might be made to lusophone part of the rest of the oversea provinces. It could of directed Portuguese investment and settlers to southern Mozambique and northern Angola and integrated them into a stronger country. With more development more prosperity for all. The colonial wars would still of happened and by 1974 estado novo is overthrown (using same dates for simplicity proposes). We could of had a portuguese population close to 1.5-2 million and they decide they want to stay part of Portugal. Southern Angola, Northern Mozambique and Guinea are granted independence and rest integrated into country.

So now you have a population of 11 million on Iberian peninsula, 5 million in Angola and another 7 million in Mozambique. Blacks might account for 40% of overall population and they be in government but it could of worked. But you need a POD in early 1960s for starter and different leaders otherwise we end up with same mess.
The POD seems to late considering the circumstances of the time. Apparently the HDI of portugal was comparable to present day india in 1980, and in 1960s this was likely even lower. Portugal must be 30-40 yrs ahead in order to integrate the Africans.
 

Lusitania

Donor
The POD seems to late considering the circumstances of the time. Apparently the HDI of portugal was comparable to present day india in 1980, and in 1960s this was likely even lower. Portugal must be 30-40 yrs ahead in order to integrate the Africans.

Ok if you want that read my lusophone world As I indicated with with Salazar that was not going to happen as under him they not only believed in that regular Europeans should be uneducated and ruled by elite group of families the same attitude applied to non Europeans. So take away Salazar, introduce development, education and industrialization before war and due to small population size be forced to integrate Africans and Asians into the country and then we have a chance.

Now that you know what is required please read lusophone TL which starts in 1920 where all that is done. The TL is Updated every two weeks. Hope to hear from you.
 

Anawrahta

Banned
Ok if you want that read my lusophone world As I indicated with with Salazar that was not going to happen as under him they not only believed in that regular Europeans should be uneducated and ruled by elite group of families the same attitude applied to non Europeans. So take away Salazar, introduce development, education and industrialization before war and due to small population size be forced to integrate Africans and Asians into the country and then we have a chance.

Now that you know what is required please read lusophone TL which starts in 1920 where all that is done. The TL is Updated every two weeks. Hope to hear from you.
Sounds interesting, I'm going to look into it.
 
Ultimately, will it be worth it to Portugal?

If Portugal has northwest Angola + Cabinda, then Portugal has even more oil than Norway does. If they invest the money wisely like the Norwegians have, then it'd absolutely be worth it. Furthermore, Luanda probably would be a global city in which many American, European, and Latin American firms set up their local operations in.


Another knock-on: Galp Energia may grow to rival the supermajors (BP, Chevron, ExxonMobil, Eni, Totale, and Royal Dutch Shell). As it stands, there's only two other companies OTL who came close to those six in terms of technical competence and size: PetroBras and PDVSA. The latter suffered from Chavez and Maduro using it as a tool to appoint cronies to. The former has domestic corruption issues, but the technical competence is there. TTL I either see Galp Energia being much bigger or the Portuguese developing a very very strong relationship with Brazil and Petrobras.
 
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