Portugal-Brazil dynastic reunion... in the 20th century!

PoD: Pedro II isn't overthrown in 1889 and the Empire of Brazil lives on into the 20th century. Just that.

One can assume the butterflies will be minimal in Portugal.
In 1932 Manuel II dies in exile without issue or close relatives. Around that time Salazar's Estado Novo is in the process of establishing itself with a (republican) constitution.

IOTL Salazar thought that after the death of Manuel II all reasonably legitimate claims to the Portuguese throne died with him and restoring the monarchy really served no purpose. Although he was far from hostile towards the monarchists he kept Portugal as a republic.
ITTL Salazar offers the throne to Pedro III of Brazil (Pedro II's grandson). He doesn't offer him any kind of real power, he just offers him to be the titular king of Portugal with the sole power of nominating a regent to act as head of state on his behalf (à la Governor-General of Canada or Australia).
Estado Novo could then profit from associating itself with an 800 year-old institution without the burden of maintaining a puppet king.
The republicans wouldn't be that much alienated because - let's face it - Canada and Australia are as much republics as the USA. :)
Furthermore such a dynastic union would psychologically "reunite" the old Portuguese Empire and that would be great publicity for a regime with such a nationalist agenda.

So the Emperor Pedro III of Brazil must now ask the Brazilian parliament for permission to also become King Pedro VI of Portugal. If by the 1820s and 1830s the Brazilians - after having recently conquered their independence - had much to fear from a dynastic union with Portugal, at this point I can't see that much opposition towards Salazar's proposal.
1) In the early 19th century Portuguese and Brazilian population were more or less matched but by 1932 Brazil had already far outgrew Portugal and tiny Portugal was no threat for gigantic Brazil.
2) The Portuguese could not gain any relevant influence in the Brazilian affairs. If anything the common monarch would be a Brazilian living in Brazil.

Such union could survive to these days even with the eventual fall of the Estado Novo. The Emperor of Brazil and King of Portugal could over time become King of Angola, Mozambique, etc. as these countries start declaring their independence.
 
I wonder how this will effect Brazilian football later on. Pele and Eusbeio play in the same team? Figo and Ronaldo? Cristiano Ronaldo and Ronaldihno? If they play the same team Brazil/Portugal would win at least 8-10 world cups. If they make it a way the two teams merge then this union would dominant football for decades.
 
To keep the monarchy in Brazil until the 1930s, I guess the easiest way is to make Pedro II a little less conservative and give some high posts in the government to the military. Many generals developed a republican feeling after the government didn't (or at least they thought so) recognize the effort made by the military in the Triple Alliance War, back in the 1860s.

It would also help that the ban on slavery isn't as sudden as it was in Brazil. That alienated the only faction still supporting the monarchy by 1888, the big landowners that still depended on some level on that kind of work.

With a calmed down military and by letting slavery die on it's own (there were several laws in place that were making slaves more a burden than a benefit, and importing slaves from Africa was becoming increasingly difficult since mid-19th century), probably Brazil would adopt in the 1890s or in the early 20th century a more democratic monarchy, keeping the emperor as Head of State.
 
So here's a timeline that follows more or less what I previously envisioned. You only "need" to read the parts in bold as the rest is just me explaining my choices that weren't always random.

1847 - PoD - Afonso Pedro, Imperial Prince of Brazil (b. 1845) survives.
* My premise was that any change in the Brazilian domestic affairs will only have slight butterfly effects on Portuguese domestic affairs. Pushing the PoD 85 years before the death of Manuel II, well... I admit the butterflies should kick in harder. I choose to ignore them! There's nothing that big going on in Brazil that will have that dramatic effect in the following 85 years of Portuguese history and if things are going to be slightly different I'd figure the end result would be always more or less analog: British Ultimatum, Republican coup attempts, Regicide, Republic, instability, military dictatorship... Those could come in different times or shapes but they're likely to come. So there, I ignore the butterflies and assumed Portuguese history takes course as IOTL until 1932.
c. 1865 - Afonso Pedro marries Infanta Maria Ana of Portugal (b. 1843) and sires a son, Luiz. Shortly after Luiz's birth Pedro Afonso leaves to the battlefield and becomes highly engaged in the War of the Triple Alliance.
* To speculate which princess would Afonso Pedro marry is a very hard task. I believe however that it's reasonable to assume that one of the main candidates would be two of Maria II's daughters: Maria Ana (b. 1843) and Antónia (b. 1845). IOTL they married early (1859 and 1861, respectively) with older princes. ITTL having a future emperor as potential husband material, I'd say it's reasonable to assume that there's some sort of diplomatic restraint in order to postpone these princesses' marriages. Having the Brazilian Braganzas marry into the Braganza-Coburgs isn't needed to achieve my ultimate goal but it would help! And it was not at all unlikely...
* Why Maria Ana and not Antónia? Pedro II had a terrible experience with his own marriage: He was given a fake portrait of her future wife and he was misled into believing he'd be marrying a beautiful princess. He was terribly disappointed! I can see Pedro II encouraging is teenage son to make a trip to Europe and while at it check out his Portuguese cousins by himself. I don't have teenage portraits of when they were teenagers but I believe Maria Ana is fairer than her sister. The fact that she's 2 years older than Afonso Pedro is apparently not a problem since both Pedro II and Pedro I married with slightly older women too.
* The name Luiz is not entirely random. I believe OTL Pedro Afonso was only named Pedro Afonso because he was born after Afonso Pedro's death. Later on, the second most popular name among the Brazilian Braganzas was Luiz and so I chose that name to TTL "Pedro Afonso". OTL Pedro Afonso died young like his brother and I can't see any reason for this to be butterflied away so I say TTL "Pedro Afonso" (called Luiz) will die too. Afonso Pedro's son will be named in his late uncle's honour.
* I know that one of the easiest ways to keep the Brazilian monarchy is to butterfly the War of the Triple Alliance away. Here I just want to use one PoD (the survival of Afonso Pedro) and I don't see why would the war be avoided just because Afonso Pedro is alive.
c. 1875 - Pedro II, bored from his job, abdicates in favour of his son. Pedro Afonso I will reign surrounded by his former army comrades.
* From the 1870s on it seems that OTL Pedro II was getting tired of his job. I think he would have abdicated if he believed he had someone to abdicate to.
* Oh yeah that's right: Pedro Afonso is a popular fellow among the military. No coup. Thanks for the input, jiyonesu. Never mind the slavery thingy. The plantation owners may not have his back but they are not going to conspire against him.
c. 1895 - The Imperial Prince Luiz marries and sires his first son, Luiz.
* Little to say. OTL Brazilian Braganzas of this generation married and bred in their late 20s. I don't care with whom did he marry :)
c. 1910 - Pedro Afonso I dies, Luiz I ascends to the throne.
* Little to say. His father lived until the age of 66 and that's a normal age to die back then.
c. 1920 - Dover Pact - After it became obvious that Manuel II wasn't going to produce heirs, Manuel II cuts a semi-public deal with a representative of young Duarte Nuno (the Miguelist pretendant, b. 1907) and with a representative of the Brazilian Imperial family. The Miguelists were restored to the line of succession, being recognized to Duarte Nuno the titles of Infante and of Duke of Guimarães. Nonetheless, should Manuel II fail to produce offspring, a Brazilian prince would have precedence over Duarte Nuno if he assumes Portuguese nationality as dictated by the monarchic constitution.
c. 1925 - As a consequence from the Dover Pact, the Imperial Prince Luiz marries Maria Benedita (b.1896), an older sister of Duarte Nuno.
* OTL Dover Pact allegedly took place in 1912 when the royal couple's infertility wasn't known and should Manuel II (and his elderly bachelor uncle) die the only believable candidates to the throne were the Miguelist pretendants. ITTL I believe that the strength of the idea that Manuel II could eventually be succeeded by a Brazilian prince (that here also descended from Maria II) would complicate things and a deal wouldn't be reached that soon. After WWI the Austrian-based Miguelist family goes through hard times and I believe that the Miguelist family will be satisfied to simply see its branch restored to the line of succession. Furthermore having a member of the Miguelist line marry into a reigning family is an excellent deal.
c. 1930 - Luiz I dies, Luiz II ascends to the throne.
* Same considerations than those regarding Pedro Afonso's death.
1932 - Manuel II dies in exile making Luiz II his universal heir. Among the drafters of the new Portuguese constitution the idea of restoring the monarchy gains strength. Luiz II is caught off guard by Manuel II's untimely death. Not that he had never flirted with the idea of some day accumulate the Portuguese and the Brazilian crowns, but the main plan was to put some day one of his younger sons in the Portuguese throne.
1933 - After some negotiations, the Brazilian parliament allows the Emperor to assume the title of King of Portugal and a bilateral treaty is signed symbolically in Bragança, SP. The Braganza Union is born! Luiz II is proclaimed King of Portugal (also as Luiz II), Óscar Carmona is nominated Regent and Salazar carries on as President of the Council of Ministers.
 
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So here's a timeline that follows more or less what I previously envisioned. You only "need" to read the parts in bold as the rest is just me explaining my choices that weren't always random.

Cool. Of course more butterflies would be reasonable, but as an intellectual excercise this remains useful. If nothing else it demonstrates plausibility of the concept.
 
Cool. Of course more butterflies would be reasonable, but as an intellectual excercise this remains useful. If nothing else it demonstrates plausibility of the concept.
My thoughts exactly!
I intellectually know that if I go back in time and save Pedro Afonso, the slight changes that'll cause in Portuguese domestic affairs will snowball over time and Portuguese history could never go exactly as IOTL. I believe it's likely to have a similar course of events but I lack the imagination to randomly say things like "during the Regicide Manuel is killed instead of Luiz-Filipe" or even "Salazar's parents have sex a day later and a Salazar with a slightly different genetic composition is born". ;)
 
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