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a couple of questions:
How large a role did Portugal play in causing the peninsular war?
Portugal constantly played the part of good lackey for the English, siding with the English against the French, allowing trade, allowing ports to be used by the English fleet. Basically, being a thorn in France's side. France used this as a good excuse to throw a lot of troops into Spain and beyond to subdue the Portuguese. Let's say Portugal decided to become a French toady instead of an English Toady. Never mind what the English would do to Portugal and it's colony's. Without the pretext of invading Portugal, does France still go after Spain? Factor in that Spain was attempting to buffer Portugal from France in the years leading up. They mostly sided with France, but attempted to soften the blow to the long time allies, and family tied, Portugal, which pissed off Napoleon to no end.

Question 2. The war of the oranges (1801) is OTL just a footnote in history. What if Joao IV emerges from his near death experience circa 1790 and found he had grown a pair of testicles and a brain? He decides that the military needs serious attention/reform, and actually achieves some success. Not expecting miracles here, just a moderate success in creating some sort of viable military machine instead of the mockery it was (he had to bring an 82 year old out of retirement to run the war). Could the war of 1801 become a more major conflict instead of the throw down all weapons and beg for mercy it was? If so, what happens? Barring some ASB, Portugal loses, but does it become worse than OTL throwing down all weapons and begging for mercy? Delaying the inevitable gives the French time to get involved (OTL, Portugal gave up in record time, so the French didn't have a chance to march across Spain). Could you speed up the transfer of the court to Brazil to 1801-1802? At this time, England basically abandoned Portugal, as it was desperate to finagle the peace of Amiens. What does this do to the causes of the peninsular war? Would Spain and France fall out over dividing the spoils of Portugal? Or would Spain recognize that France would kick it's ass in a heartbeat conventionally, and let France do what it will? If Nap still goes ahead with his little bit of insanity and try taking over Spain in relatively the same timeframe (1808), without Portugal as a platform, the English have no ability to project land power in that theatre. If Spain toadies up to France, as it had been doing, without the Portuguese thorn, does Nap keep his sanity and not try taking over Spain? What does this do for the overall outcome of the Napoleonic Wars?
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