Portillo as Tory Leader

Suppose either Michael Portillo had kept his seat in 1997 and won the leadership or he had outlasted one of IDS or Clarke to get it in 2001?
 
Suppose either Michael Portillo had kept his seat in 1997 and won the leadership or he had outlasted one of IDS or Clarke to get it in 2001?

Depends on when the facts about his dalliances in college get leaked to The Sun. At some point someone will mention it and that would kill his leadership chances stone dead. IF he somehow overcomes this then he'd beat Clarke and SID. Can't see him winning in 2001 no matter what happens.
 
Depends on when the facts about his dalliances in college get leaked to The Sun. At some point someone will mention it and that would kill his leadership chances stone dead. IF he somehow overcomes this then he'd beat Clarke and SID. Can't see him winning in 2001 no matter what happens.

Fair point about that, yeah. TBH I was thinking a 1997 win is far more plausible anyway; all it really needs is a freak swing back to the Tories in Enfield Southgate of the kind that saved Nick Clegg in 2015, but from Referendum Party voters. With their support, he'd cling on by ~100 votes if I recall correctly.
 
Portillo without the '97 defeat is not the Portillo we know today. He would be much more "righteous" in his beliefs rather than the somewhat centre-ist figure he portrays today.

More likely to lead the Tories after 1997 but less likely to challenge NuLab
 
he could've won the leadership in 2001, after his "conversion" to the centre-right
if he'd have then run the 2005 campaign based on the economy and improving public services rather than immigration alone, the tories could've won
 
Portillo without the '97 defeat is not the Portillo we know today. He would be much more "righteous" in his beliefs rather than the somewhat centre-ist figure he portrays today.

More likely to lead the Tories after 1997 but less likely to challenge NuLab

True, but a more fiercely right-wing Tory party might even lose seats in 2001 (Hague achieved a net gain of just 1, remember, and one of those was that wafer-thin margin in Galloway). With that, the next leadership election is probably more open, and might go to someone like Clarke instead of IDS.
 
True, but a more fiercely right-wing Tory party might even lose seats in 2001 (Hague achieved a net gain of just 1, remember, and one of those was that wafer-thin margin in Galloway). With that, the next leadership election is probably more open, and might go to someone like Clarke instead of IDS.

Ken Clarke was never going to be elected leader. He was a Europhile in a Eurosceptic party.
 
All of which depends on him surviving the stories about his sex life in college. This is almost 20 years ago now, when the world was a harsher place. The Tories normally sweep such things under the carpet and then swear blind that there's nothing there, such as with the repulsive Peter Morrison. If the college stories come out (no pun intended) during a bid for the leadership then the Tories drop him like a radioactive potato and run in the direction of The Boy Hague.
 
Ken Clarke was never going to be elected leader. He was a Europhile in a Eurosceptic party.

Before the Ken Clarke - IDS vote I asked my then-editor who he thought would win. He looked thoughtful for a moment and then said that he couldn't imagine IDS winning anything, so his money was on Clarke. Sadly I didn't wave a tenner under his nose and ask him for the odds on IDS winning.
 
I think the moment he lost to Twigg in 98, he knew the game was up, although he came back as Shadow Chancellor under Hague prior to 2001, his heart was never really in it anymore.

He had already started to make a name for himself as TV documentary presenter, in the 2 years he was away.

The way really to make him Leader and PM is for Major to slightly worse in 1995 leadership election against Redwood, Major withdraws after the first ballot, Portillo gets in, and beats Redwood in the 2nd ballot to become PM.

I think the Tories would do better in 1997 under him rather than Major, but he would still take them down to defeat say a 100 majority rather than 170. I think as well that in his heart of hearts he knew the party was going to lose the next election in 95 anyway, one of the reasons he didn't challenge Major and waited anyway.
 
The way really to make him Leader and PM is for Major to slightly worse in 1995 leadership election against Redwood, Major withdraws after the first ballot, Portillo gets in, and beats Redwood in the 2nd ballot to become PM.

I think the Tories would do better in 1997 under him rather than Major, but he would still take them down to defeat say a 100 majority rather than 170. I think as well that in his heart of hearts he knew the party was going to lose the next election in 95 anyway, one of the reasons he didn't challenge Major and waited anyway.

The first part of that I definitely agree with, if Major had pulled out like that, Portillo would have been the favourite to replace him. The second bit, not so much; in fact, if Clarke is stubborn and stays at the Treasury, the schism will probably be even worse for the Tories (comparable to Labour in 1983, possibly). Who knows, Portillo could even be the first sitting Prime Minister to lose his seat in a General Election?
 
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