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So, I am preparing my glorious 3rd attempt at my Land as Promised timeline, whose central conceit is a Jewish state in Palestine in 1922 (even though, broadly speaking, this is one of the less important things that happens in that timeline). And I was thinking, one of the causes of conflict in the region seems to be that the states are relatively heterogeneous, by local standards (mostly religion). For example, the current strife in Syria is basically because the wrong kind of Muslims are in charge; there's been violence in Egypt against Christians; the whole "Jew vs non-Jew" thing, and of course the glory of Iraq and the clusterbomb that is Lebanon.

And so now, I want to talk about population transfer. Here is a rough map of the Middle East in 1923, ITTL:



As you can see, the British fight with the French a little bit on this one. Syria, Iraq, Hedjaz, and Nejd are all Hashemite-ruled British puppets. But the important bit is in the northwest quarter, where we see Syria, Palestine, Alexandretta, Alawite, and Lebanon. Demographically, Palestine is about 100k Jews (the POD is 1919; in those 3 years, the only major butterfly has been slightly higher Jewish immigration to the region), 70k Christians, and little less than 600k Muslims (plus another perhaps 50k in OTL Lebanese and Syrian land grafted on), of which some portion are Bedouins and some portion Druze (I haven't been able to find good numbers on those), plus a few thousand each Samaritans and Circassians. The Alawite state is 60k Sunnis, 160k Alawites, a little more than 40k Christians (mostly Greek Orthodox). Alexandretta is 150,000 Sunnis (the census doesn't say it, but other sources I found suggest that it's probably mostly Turks and some Kurds), 30k Alawites, and some 28k Christians of various types. Lebanon with OTL borders is 120k Sunnis, 110k Shiites, 40k Druze, 240k various Catholics (of which 200k are Maronite), 85k various other Christians (mostly Greek Orthodox), and all of 3.5k Jews, plus 20k "foreigners". Aleppo is 360k Sunnis (not listed in the census, but other documents suggest a sizable Kurdish minority), minimal other types of Islam, and 25k Christians of various stripes, plus a little less than 7k Jews. Damascus is 450k Sunnis, another 25k assorted Muslims, 65k Christians (2/3 Orthodox, 1/3 Catholic), 6k Jews, and 50k "strangers". The Druze state was 43k Druze, 7k various Christians (not that it matters...no one cares about the Druze, in this timeline or any other :( ). There's also some city statistics there. Largely: Beirut, decent Christian Majority, Homs, decent Christian minority, all other major cities: strongly Muslim majority with 10-20% Christians. Not counted are an estimated 350k nomads over the entire region, all of which are likely Sunni Muslim Bedouins. "Small Lebanon" is noted as having 400k residents, including almost all of the Christians. Note also that Sunnis are noted as having protested the census in Greater Lebanon; the actual number may be somewhat higher. I also tried to find good Iraqi numbers (why not? They're also pink here), but the first comprehensive census of Iraq was in 1957, after decades with at least a few definitely recorded ethnic cleansings.

So, let's talk population transfer Palestine, Lebanon, Alawite, and Syria. There will be no Druze state, and I haven't decided what to do with Alexandretta yet. We will use as our population transfer model, Greece and Turkey, circa 1923. This treaty, separate from but concurrent to the Treaty of Lausanne, was pushed by both the Greek and Turkish leadership; exempted Constantinople, and was based solely on religion; Turkish-speaking Christians and Greek-speaking Muslims were considered Greek and Turkish, respectively, for the purposes of the treaty. See: Cappodacian Greeks, Cretan Muslims. about 500k Muslims left Greece, and 1.5 million Christians left Turkey (almost all of both religious populations). See also the Peel Commission plan in the late 30s recommended a population of some 220k Arabs and a whopping 1,250 Jews...despite making note of the lack of arable land to resettle the Arabs in...From these examples, I'm going to consider considering population transfer being considered a legitimate tactic.

Now, in my timeline, I've been going with King Faisal I of Syria as a fairly liberal despot. He's not actively oppressing the Christians, but isn't too enthused about them, he doesn't care about the Druze even a little, the Alawites are backwards but dangerous, and the Jews are a valued bridge to the giant sack of money and technology that's going to be sitting near him soon. The Jews in Palestine are certain that a decade or so of immigration will solve their "non-Jewish majority" problem, but aren't all that patient. They're almost all socialists, and so in principle aren't huge fans of the idea...but they're also mostly nationalists, and OTL Ben Gurion wrote

"The compulsory transfer of the Arabs from the valleys of the proposed Jewish state could give us something which we have never had, even when we stood on our own during the days of the First and Second Temples: [a Galilee almost free of non-Jews]. ... We are being given an opportunity which we never dared to dream of in our wildest imagination. This is more than a state, government and sovereignty---this is a national consolidation in a free homeland. ... if because of our weakness, neglect or negligence, the thing is not done, then we will have lost a chance which we never had before, and may never have again."

Obviously, Ben Gurion in 1937 is a different man from Chaim Weizmann in 1922, but while I suspect the Jews won't propose a population transfer, they'll be all too happy to accept one. The Alawites will be happy to rid themselves of their Sunni presumed-fifth-column and their Christian nonbelievers. Similarly, the French will be all too happy to expel Mohammedans while accepting Christians. So at the very least, 30k Christians will be moving a little south on the sunny coast. Aside from that, I'm looking at something like:

-At least 500k Sunnis leaving Palestine for Syria. Faisal is happy to receive them as long as they come with British aid attached; he has plans to develop his periphery and industry, and an extra 30-40% of people will make him happy enough, even if they're mostly uneducated peasants. Further, the Jewish National Fund will "guarantee to buy their land" and "fair prices". So they won't be a complete drain on Syria's economy.
-The Jews would love to expel their Druze, too, but no one wants them.
-They feel less strongly about their Christians. Also, the French are surprisingly silent about the 30k-odd Catholics coming into Lebanon...apparently they want some Christian souls in and around Nazareth and the Sea of Galilee.
-The French are eager to expel their Muslims from Lebanon; Faisal is eager to accept the Sunnis. The Shiites...less so. They mostly remain in Lebanon.
-The French want Syrian Christians; Faisal is willing to give them. Some 40k Catholics come to Lebanon, as do about half of the 50k Orthodox Christians (generally speaking: well-behaved urban Christians stay, independent-minded rural Christians in the problematic north are kindly encouraged to leave).
-I have no clue with Alexandretta, though most of Alawites go south...or that land gets annexed onto the Alawite state. Since I'm almost certainly unlikely to find a demographic map of Mandate Syria or the Vilayet of Beirut that goes into that kind of detail, I'll probably split the difference and steal a little land while moving all the people).
-The Alawites will expel almost all of their Sunnis, who Faisal will embrace with open arms...mostly resettling them in and around Tripoli, to strengthen his hold there.

Final populations are going to be about:
-Palestine: 100k Jews, 70k Christians, 15k Druze, 200k Sunnis
-Lebanon: 400k Christians (about 2/3 Catholic), 30k-40k Druze, 70-80k Shiites (mostly from borders, not population transfer), minimal Sunnies, about 2-3k Jews
-Alawite: ~180k Alawites, minimal other population
-Alexandretta: 150k Sunnis (presumably mostly Turks?), minimal other population
-Syria: about 1.9 million Sunnis, about 30k Shiites, about 10k Jews, about 40-60k Druzes, about 20-30k Christians, mostly Orthodox

I know that was a pretty huge wall of text, but I'd like any inputs. Especially, if someone can find me how the British felt about the OTL Greco/Turkish dealy, I'd be very happy to know...I've been searching for some time now, and haven't been able to find it. The French reaction would also be nice, I guess.

Of course, how the new-born governments and war-weary imperialists are going to execute the population transfers is another excellent question...

Note: I found a copy of the 1922 Mandate of Syria census! Whoo! I spent like an hour searching for it. http://www.persee.fr/web/revues/home/prescript/article/geo_0003-4010_1924_num_33_181_9758
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