Population of Manchuria without a Qing Conquest of China

[Noscoper]

What would the population of Manchuria look like over the years without the Qing Conquest of China.

Would the population be low enough for a possible Russian annexation ?

 

[Forbiddenparadise64]

Well given the Qing came from there, does this more limited realm remain broadly similar while the Ming dominate the rest of China (sans Mongolia and Dzungar)? If so, and the Ming’s successors mostly take over old lands, then it’s likely these territories all fall into Russia’s sphere of influence, if not outright annexation. With how Manchuria in otl only managed to become assimilated to China properly in the late 19th century, and that was after centuries of Qing excsptionalism, I imagine Russia could have assimilated an independent Manchuria similarly, as they did in outer Manchuria in otl. In fact without Qing protectors in Beijing, they’d probably do so much earlier ITTL. Outer Mongolia and Xinjiang are probably more difficult to integrate, and are likely an extension of OTL’s Great Game.

 

[Pelranius]

That depends on if Han Chinese or Koreans end up settling ATL Manchuria.

 

[kholieken]

Its possible that Independent Manchuria is still powerful regional state, like Balhae historically. formidable enough to cause difficulty to Russian, Korean, and Chinese. its population might be low, but it still have fertile farming areas and strong horsemanship tradition.

 

[wertiol123]

Manchuria has the potential to be a smaller independent state, much like Mongolia OTL. It has the potential to safeguard its borders, and might be a good candidate later on for incorporation as an SSR. (Keep in mind this is all conjecture). The Ming might be replaced by an ethnically Han dynasty, or possibly keep ruling, although the underlying factors for Li Zicheng's rebellion are still there.