Population of a much longer settled Siberia?

If Kievan Rus remained united and wasn't invaded by the Mongols, and East Slavs settled Siberia several centuries before they did historically, how populated could Siberia theoretically become?

In this case, Siberia would be settled to agricultural carrying capacity by the end of the pre-industrial era, and so its population would expand like Europe's or Japan's did with the start of industrialization.
 
An interesting idea. It could have many tails.

The question I have would be if it was possible for Russia to maintain control over such a remote area. I don't think there are much in the way of east-west rivers through the Urals. How could they reach it in large numbers in, say, 1403?

Would the Russians want their peasants to depart their lands? If there wasn't a labor surplus, the government wouldn't want to lose productive workers.

How would this affect the development of serfdom? This was actually a fairly late development in Russia relative to much of Europe (I think). If this movement east was possible, then that may have major butterflies on Russian history.

I would think the first step that Russia would have to do for this movement to happen is break the Ukrainian Tartars early. Traveling south of the Urals seems easier than trekking through them. However, there are a lot of Muslim tribes in the Crimea, Caucasus and Central Asia to get through. Without a major technological advantage, that will be a challenge for the Russians.
 
The first Russian expeditions towards the Urals were in the very late 14th c. But Russian people were still internally colonizing Perm Vologda and Volga into the 16th century. There would be a really dramatic change needed to have Rus lands be densely enough settled to export people into Siberia very early.
 
You have multiple problems here. The two that immediately spring to mind are:
1) Steppe nomads have the advantage over settled farmers until the widespread use of firearms. So, removing one lot of nomads just opens the way for the next. Removing all nomads is ASB.
2) if the steppe grass is anything like the north american prairie, you really want steel plows.
 
What part of Siberia are we talking about? It covers a 13.1 million square kilometer area.

But to tag along with the agricultural aspect, another thing to consider is that in quite a bit of the area they experience short growing seasons. That is a potential limitation.
 
You have multiple problems here. The two that immediately spring to mind are:
1) Steppe nomads have the advantage over settled farmers until the widespread use of firearms. So, removing one lot of nomads just opens the way for the next. Removing all nomads is ASB.
2) if the steppe grass is anything like the north american prairie, you really want steel plows.

Not all nomads are the same; the Russian princes broke the Cuman power around the Dniepr and started colonising along the Donets and potentially as far east as the Voronezh river. All those towns seem to have survived Cuman and Russian internal politics, but then both the Russians ans Cumans got swept up by the Mongols (along with the Volga Bolgars, another important player). If it was someone other than the Mongols, who knows - maybe they could be settling the Volga (provided the Bolgars are defeated) somewhere in the 14th c. instead of the 16th.

It's not a given that the Vladimir princes even with Cuman allies were capable of defeating the Bolgars by the given date, by the way. The Mongols really changed everything.
 
Kazan is key for any Russian expansion to Siberia. However Kievan Rus had to defeat Volga Bulgaria if it wanted to colonise eastwards
 
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