Population and economic question for a larger Germany

JJohnson

Banned
As a hypothetical, let's say that Germany experiences a different 19th and 20th century, as an ally of Britain instead of antagonist, a role filled by France. Her borders are this, having merged with Austria and Slovenia at some point in the 20th century.

The main question is, what would this country's population be considering it had no holocaust, but perhaps experienced two or three major wars in Europe? Is 120-150 million reasonable? What kinds of resources does this land possess?

Let's say this country keeps its monarchy, what would a reasonable evolution of the kaiserdom be over the last century and a half? Do you expect Germany to at least partly resemble the UK with respect to its monarchy/parliament, or would it have a stronger, more influential royalty?

I'm trying to incorporate some ideas into a timeline I'm working on and I want to make sure this version of Germany is as realistic as I can make it. Thanks in advance.
 
Germany that absorbs Slovenia and not Bohemia? The EU3 player in me wants to yell "ugly borders". Anyway, I imagine that this Kaiser-Reich would be similar to the UK but with more authoritarian trends. The Chancellor would most likely overpower the Kaiser over the years, I would imagine a the Chancellor would be able to introduce legislation, negotiate treaties, veto. Legislation would be stronger than pre-1914. they would have some bite as legislation would be strengthened to keep stability in the empire (my guess at least, it could end up being a rockier time). The upper house may open its ranks to the bureaucracy.
 
The main question is, what would this country's population be considering it had no holocaust, but perhaps experienced two or three major wars in Europe? Is 120-150 million reasonable? What kinds of resources does this land possess?

Britain and Germany allied means that Italy is on their side as well. France as an antagonist might start 2 or three major wars - but loose them rather quickly. Major war will only happen in Eastern Europe, where Germany will gradually build up buffer states against the Russians that will bear most of the suffering. Germany, on the other hand, will never be blockaded successfully. All in all I would expect rather less military casualties and those casualties more spread over the years than IOTL. Also there would be a lot less civilian casualties in the wars. Jewish immigration to Germany is likely, overall it's likely that Germany dominating large parts of Eastern Europe will attract immigrants much earlier than IOTL. Add to that a more conservative leaning society, an overall more rural and more catholic Germany and you'll get a higher population growth as well. However, from the 1970s onward, population growth will slow down as IOTL - maybe even earlier if this Germany is more prosperous.

IOTL, Germany has 82 million inhabitants, the Sudetenland should have around 4, Austria has 7, Slovenia 3, Alsace-Lorraine 2. Ignoring the rest that would make 98 million (a very rough calculation that mixes times, but anyway). My guess would be that a population of 110 to 120 million could be expected.
 

JJohnson

Banned
I agree that this seems a bit improbable, especially as they've apparently acquired the Sudetenland.

Slovenia, yeah, it could probably be improbable, but it could be doable. I only left it in there to give them a Mediterranean port, and leave Styria, Carinthia, and Carniola from Austria-Hungary together. It's not necessary to keep, as the main focus of the timeline would be a united German state, but it would be nice.

If there were two or three wars, do you think the large-scale ethnic population transfers of OTL would take place perhaps?

I'm not sure of exact numbers of how many Germans were present outside the proposed borders here, but I figured roughly 2.6 million from Slovakia, Bohemia-Moravia, Hungary, Netherlands, Poland, Volga, Russia, and the Baltic states in total. If there were any population transfers, say of Polish out of Germany, these people could be resettled in Posen and West Prussia, if anything.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
Slovenia, yeah, it could probably be improbable, but it could be doable. I only left it in there to give them a Mediterranean port, and leave Styria, Carinthia, and Carniola from Austria-Hungary together. It's not necessary to keep, as the main focus of the timeline would be a united German state, but it would be nice.

If there were two or three wars, do you think the large-scale ethnic population transfers of OTL would take place perhaps?

I'm not sure of exact numbers of how many Germans were present outside the proposed borders here, but I figured roughly 2.6 million from Slovakia, Bohemia-Moravia, Hungary, Netherlands, Poland, Volga, Russia, and the Baltic states in total. If there were any population transfers, say of Polish out of Germany, these people could be resettled in Posen and West Prussia, if anything.


These should help.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethnic_and_religious_composition_of_Austria-Hungary

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minorities_in_Hungary

I don't see a Germany doing large involuntary population moves without a major war, just too hard politically. Probably economic incentives for moving. WW1 and before, Germans treated Jews better than Russians, so I can see most of Russia Jewish population moving to German areas over a generation.
 
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