My list of misconceptions:
1. Ottoman Empire failed to reform.
2. War of independences created the States in the Balkans (it was Russia, it was always Russia).
3. Every European Power had the goal to drive the Turks out of Europe (to be fair, it was probably desired as an utopia but nobody wanted the other to fill the vacuum abandoned by the Ottomans).
4. Russia with a different Czar (Constantin, longer Alexander II etc...) is destined to turn in to a constitutional monarchy.
5. Austria-Hungary is destined to lose all/most of their non-German lands.