I thought up this earlier today, concerning the 2008 Presidential election. In an alternate timeline, Barack Obama decides against running for the Presidency in 2008, instead deciding to stay in the Senate before running for President sometime in the near future. This leaves Hillary Clinton and John Edwards as the frontrunners for the Democratic nomination, and after a long, hard-fought battle, Edwards emerges victorious.
On the GOP side, John McCain either decides not to enter the race because of his age, or stays in the race and fizziles out early on (no "comeback kid" in this timeline), leaving the race deadlocked between Romney and Huckabee. Huckabee manages to keep up his own momentum after Iowa, with evangelical grassroots efforts pushing him over the line after a similarily hard-fought contest.
On both sides, then, two "populist" candidates emerge, eager to address the problems of the Bush administration through similar economic means but vastly different social means.
Where in the world does this take us?
- I'm thinking that Edwards and Huckabee will both end up choosing relatviely centrist Vice Presidential nominees. For Edwards, that would probably bump Tom Vilsack or Bill Richardson to the top of the list. For Huckabee, any centrist he picks would probably fall into the pro-life category becuase of Huckabee's social leanings (I don't see him choosing Giuliani, Romney, or Ridge), so I'm shot as for VP nominees on the Huckabee side.
- What happens with the Edwards sex scandal? Is it butterflied away? If it happens, I'm sure this is going to seriously wound Edwards in the polls at least until the economic crash in October, in which the Democrats might get a boost back because the public generally trusts the Democrats over the Republicans when it comes to the economy. If it doesn't happen, or if it isn't revealed, I'd say the race remains relatively deadlocked.
- What about Michael Bloomberg? Under such circumstances, in which both candidates are "populists" in the economic sense, do centrists in both parties encourage Bloomberg to actively seek the Presidency? Or for that matter, I would say it would be more likely that Republicans would do so, especially the business wing represented by Romney. If Bloomberg enters and gets the endorsement of various Republicans and business leaders, not to mention the ability to self finance, does he stand a chance of toppling the two-party system or does he split the vote down the center, creating a spoiler effect? (I'm more inclinded to believe the latter).
Thoughts?
On the GOP side, John McCain either decides not to enter the race because of his age, or stays in the race and fizziles out early on (no "comeback kid" in this timeline), leaving the race deadlocked between Romney and Huckabee. Huckabee manages to keep up his own momentum after Iowa, with evangelical grassroots efforts pushing him over the line after a similarily hard-fought contest.
On both sides, then, two "populist" candidates emerge, eager to address the problems of the Bush administration through similar economic means but vastly different social means.
Where in the world does this take us?
- I'm thinking that Edwards and Huckabee will both end up choosing relatviely centrist Vice Presidential nominees. For Edwards, that would probably bump Tom Vilsack or Bill Richardson to the top of the list. For Huckabee, any centrist he picks would probably fall into the pro-life category becuase of Huckabee's social leanings (I don't see him choosing Giuliani, Romney, or Ridge), so I'm shot as for VP nominees on the Huckabee side.
- What happens with the Edwards sex scandal? Is it butterflied away? If it happens, I'm sure this is going to seriously wound Edwards in the polls at least until the economic crash in October, in which the Democrats might get a boost back because the public generally trusts the Democrats over the Republicans when it comes to the economy. If it doesn't happen, or if it isn't revealed, I'd say the race remains relatively deadlocked.
- What about Michael Bloomberg? Under such circumstances, in which both candidates are "populists" in the economic sense, do centrists in both parties encourage Bloomberg to actively seek the Presidency? Or for that matter, I would say it would be more likely that Republicans would do so, especially the business wing represented by Romney. If Bloomberg enters and gets the endorsement of various Republicans and business leaders, not to mention the ability to self finance, does he stand a chance of toppling the two-party system or does he split the vote down the center, creating a spoiler effect? (I'm more inclinded to believe the latter).
Thoughts?