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Apologies if this topic has come up before but I've hit a snag while building a timeline that I could use input on:

Thanks to some differences in starting conditions for the Second World War (unimportant to this discussion) Japan surrenders six months early, in February, 1945. Since the arrangement with the Soviet Union concerning Japan stipulated that the Soviets wouldn't get involved in Asia until after Germany's surrender, an early Japanese surrender would mean that the Soviets wouldn't invade Manchuria or Korea.

Here's where I can't make up my mind: Without Soviet intervention in Asia, who wins the Chinese Civil War?
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