It think the butterflies would be more complex.
Sure, the optimates, and especially, as Syme demonstrated, the faction that gathered around Cato with Domitius Ahenobarbus, the Claudii Marcelli, Metellus Scipio, the Cornelii Lentuli, wanted conflict against Caesar at all costs. But all their strategy stood on the capacity of mobilizing Pompey's clientelae and veterans, on placating Pompey's prestige and popularity.
With Pompey dead, as happened when Crassus died, a large part of Pompey's clientelae and supporters is going to flock away to other patrons because their tirs were not so strong and because his sons had no such talent and prestige that all would have kept following him.
And without Pompey's resources, there will be a much stronger incentive for those optimates to face the facts and to find a compromise with Caesar, no Matter how they hate him personnally.
The moderates' mediation (with Cicero) will have far more chance of success. The optimates will probably not be able to get out of the corner where Curio then Anthony locked them in the Senate since OTL they had to stage a military coup with the support of Pompey's soldiers in order to get out of this corner.