Pompey the Great Dies in 50 BC

Anaxagoras

Banned
Suppose that, roundabouts the beginning of 50 BC, Pompey the Great slips while walking down a flight of stairs, hits his head, and dies. What happens?
 
Well, Caesar is definitely going to be forced to cross the Rubicon here. No way without Pompey is Cato and his ilk going to not push Caesar to the brink. A compromise was only feasible because of Pompey's influence. Without it, Cicero would be hard pressed on his own to avoid any conflict.

The only problem is, they lack a quality commander. They might still get Titus Labienus, but with his original patron Pompey dead, he has less of an incentive to betray Caesar and may very well remain loyal. The only reason Pompey risked battle in the first place, which he knew was an unwise decision as opposed to starving Caesar out, was because the bigwhig senators threatened to split off with their own portions of the army if he didn't finish Caesar right then and there. Here, there's no reason to assume that, even if they are prudent enough to abandon the Italian peninsula, that they'll so deftly manage the campaign in Greece.


Labienus remaining loyal has its own butterflies. He was Caesar's natural right hand man, a role Antony inherited after his defection. So Antony's status is reduced in this scenario.
 
It think the butterflies would be more complex.

Sure, the optimates, and especially, as Syme demonstrated, the faction that gathered around Cato with Domitius Ahenobarbus, the Claudii Marcelli, Metellus Scipio, the Cornelii Lentuli, wanted conflict against Caesar at all costs. But all their strategy stood on the capacity of mobilizing Pompey's clientelae and veterans, on placating Pompey's prestige and popularity.

With Pompey dead, as happened when Crassus died, a large part of Pompey's clientelae and supporters is going to flock away to other patrons because their tirs were not so strong and because his sons had no such talent and prestige that all would have kept following him.

And without Pompey's resources, there will be a much stronger incentive for those optimates to face the facts and to find a compromise with Caesar, no Matter how they hate him personnally.

The moderates' mediation (with Cicero) will have far more chance of success. The optimates will probably not be able to get out of the corner where Curio then Anthony locked them in the Senate since OTL they had to stage a military coup with the support of Pompey's soldiers in order to get out of this corner.
 
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