Polonia Restituta (Poland Reborn)

Discussion in 'Alternate History Discussion: Before 1900' started by Historymaster, Jul 12, 2019.

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    Historymaster Well-Known Member

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    Disclaimer, this is the translation with corrections of a timeline in Italian language by Tommaso Mazzoni (my real name) you can see here:http://www.fmboschetto.it/Utopiaucronia/Polonia_Restituta.htm

    1863
    January 22: Polish-Lithuanian Independence war starts.

    April 7: Meeting in Rome between British Foreign Office Secretary John Russel and French one Edouard Drouyn de Lhuys; is decided to help polish-lithuanian insurgents, on anti-prussian and anti-russian ground.

    April 18: Meeting in Berlini beetween secretary Russel and chancellor Bismark; the latter gains assurance in of neutrality of England in regard of the future war with Denmark, and in exchange, he retires political endorsement to Russia.

    May 7: A French-English fleet crush the feeble russian baltic fleet, and lands in Lithuania, bringing relief to the insurgents.

    June 27: (Six month earlier then the OTL) The provisional governement license the land decree, which, promising land to the peasants who enroll in the army, boast the numbers of the Independet Polish-Lithuanian army, now commanded by Romuald Traugutt.

    September 30:Warsaw provisional governement declares reborn the Kingdom of Poland and the Grand Duchy of Lithuania, in personal union under the crown of Prince Wladyslaw Czartorisky,with the name ofi Wladyslaw V. Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth is back. The new king names the Red Faction member Jaroslaw Dabrowsky as Premier, with the White faction member Antanas Mackevičius as deputy.

    October 20: Anglo-French-Polish-Lithuanian Army inflicts to the Russian the grievious defeat of Opatow.
    Zar Alexander II starts to understand he seriously risks to face yet another Crimea.

    1864
    April 4: General Mikahil Muravyov, nicknamed the Hangman, is defeated and killed in the Battle of Vilnius from the Polish-Lithuanian army commanded byl general Jozef Hauke-Bozak.

    August 5: Signed the Treary of London, which aknowledges independence for the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, in the borders of Congress Poland, plus 1990 OTL Lithuania. Nationalist unsatisfaction not-withstanding,the day became national holyday of the new state.

    1865
    April 7: Licensed the new constitutution, which is monarchical, parliamentary, federal and liberal.

    May 7: First free elections in the Commonwealth, Commonwealth's Popular-Coservative Party lead by Traugutt wins in a coalition with the Liberal Party. Traugutt governement respects the rights of Catholic Church, which is even refunded of the loss it was subjected during Russia domination. It respects the pact with the peasants,and boast the armed forces, in light of a likely attempt of return by the Russian Empire.

    1866
    The young Polish governement sides with Prussia in the War against the Austrian Empire. In Leopolis (Polish Lwów,Lithuanian Lvovas, Ukainian Lviv), The Austrian army lead by Leopold Gondrecourt is defeated by Polish-Lituanian lead by Jozef Hauke-Bozak. Galicia is annexed to the Commonwealth, this is called the Second Independence War.

    1870
    New elections; the Commonwealth's Radical-Democratic Party lead by Jaroslaw Dabrowsky wins on the promise of social reforms; It begin industialization in Warsaw, Krakow and Vilnius.
    The alliance beetween the Second French Empire and England makes Bismark think twice beforeprovoking Paris to war; no Ems telegram, and no French-Prussian war.

    1873
    Second Holy Alliance between Prussia and her german allies, Austria-Hungary and theyr german allies and Russia.

    1874
    Anglo-Polish- Lithuanian Treaty, opposed to the Second Holy Alliance.

    1876
    Emperor of the French Napoleon III dies, he is succeeded by his son Napoleon Eugene, as Emperori Napoleon IV.

    1880
    After Sejim elections, majority shifts to Popular-Conservative Party; Alfred Józef Potocki, new Premier of the Coomonwealth, is oriented to a distensive policy with the central powers.
    Dies French Emperor Napoleon IV, he is succeded by his cousin Joseph Napoleon, Napoleon V.

    1881
    With the endorsement of Great Britain Poland-Lithuania is allowed to anticipate France in annexation of a small part of Guinea (OTL French Guinea).
    The colony is christened New Galicia, and it's capital is Wladyslawpol (H.L. Conakry)

    1883
    Congress of Berlin, confirmedo il Polish-Lithuanian possession of New Galicia.

    1885
    Potocky is confirmed as Premier.In the Commonwealth begins a season of economic growth and cultural renaissance.

    1889
    Sudden death of Polish-Lithuanian Premier Potocky,he is succeded by Internal Affairs Secretary Kazimierz Badeni.

    1890
    The Popular-Conservative Party wins the election again, Badeni is confirmed as Premier.

    1891
    The beloved French Emperor Napoleon V is died, he is succeded by his son Victore Napoleone, Napoleon VI.

    1893
    August, crown prince of the Commonwealth, dies with great pain for the King.

    1894: Wladyslaw V, King of Polonia and Lithuania dies, he is succeeded by his second born son Adam Ludwik, enthroned with the name of Louis II.

    Continues.
     
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  2. Jan Olbracht Well-Known Member

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    The only thing that realistically could went better for Poles in 1860s was not successful uprising (in 1830 there was tiny chance, some one-in-million event with chain of lucky coincidences, in 1863 chances were literally zero) but no uprising at all-if margrave Aleksander Wielopolski was more capable and could prevent rebellion Congress Poland could regain autonomy.
    Alliance with Prussia is another ASB-Prussians IOTL cooperated with Russians against Polish rebels, Independent Poland was not in Prussia's interest.
     
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  3. Historymaster Well-Known Member

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    Chance literally 0? I do not agree; with the help of Great Britain and French is absolutly realistic Polish success, expecially if the Land decree arrives six month earlier. There is non ASB in this work, because what happens respect the laws of phisics; if you think it is impossible I respect your hopinion, but I do not share it. Independent Poland was not in Prussia's interest, indeed, but A) war with England and France in 1863 was even less in Prussia interest so Bismark preferred in TTL to assure England Neutrality in future war against Denmark, B) in 1866 is not a real alliance more an opportunity.
     
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  4. ElMarquis Well-Known Member

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    Could the Poles rise up during the Crimean War? The timing would seem better for drawing on Franco-British resources.
     
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    Historymaster Well-Known Member

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    1895
    Seen as inept, Premier Badeni lead his party to electoral defeat; he was succeded by the Liberal-Democratic Jonas Basanavičius, who worried about a stronger federal structure.

    1896
    Italy enter the II Holy Alliance

    1897
    II French Empire and Ottoman Empire find common ground in Anti-Russian policies.

    1900
    Liberal-Democratics win and Basanavičius stay as Premier.

    1903
    Birth of the Four Way Entente between France, Poland-Lithuania, Great Britain and Ottoman Empire.

    1905
    Popolar Conservative Party is back in power with Roman Dmowsky Premier; Dmowsky promotes extension of vote right.

    1907
    Poland-Lithuania gives women vote right.

    1910
    Dmowsky is confirmed as Premier. Winds of warpush him to intensify weapon ran and heavy idustry,even if he was, personally, a firm believer in a diplomatic approach in internetional comtoversies resolution.

    1914-1919
    First World War.
    Coalitions: British Empire, II French Empire, Serbia, Montenegro, Belgium, Poland-Lithuania, Ottoman Empire, Ha'il Emirate, Italy (from 1915), Greece (from 1916), Romania (from 1916), Stati Uniti (from 1917), Giappone (from 1917); Of the Holy Alliance are members Prussia (and allies), Austria-Hungary, Russian Empire, Bulgaria ed Nejeb Emirate. The murder, in Sarajevo, of Archduke Franz Ferdinand, heir to the throne of Austria -Hungary, by the hand of ayoung serbian nationalist named Gavrilo Princip, caused a catastrophic chain effect.
     
  6. Historymaster Well-Known Member

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    Is a nice idea; But in OTL 1863 was the year of the insurrection, and i this TL I explored this one.
     
  7. ElMarquis Well-Known Member

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    As an earlier PoD, could the Polish Legion have been reconstituted by the Franco-British during the Crimean War. So a few years later, you've got veteran soldiers with western influenced ideas, an understanding of the power of the ongoing industrial revolution and perhaps holding some quantity of arms.

    Veterans of such a force could be useful in a successful uprising.
     
  8. alexmilman Well-Known Member

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    To be of a meaningful usefulness the French and Brits would have to get to Poland which would be close to impossible without alienating Prussia and your scenario of the Prussian concession is, while physically possible, hardly realistic. The same goes for Austria (Galicia). Not to mention that the chances France and Britain so soon after the losses of the CW embarking on the next major war against Russia (and Prussia and AH) just for the Polish sake is highly unlikely and this assumption is a cornerstone of your scenario. While both Brits and NIII liked to make anti-Russian noises (which cost nothing but keep public at home enthusiastic), motivation for the major war was not there.

    FYI, in 1863 size of the Russian army was over 1M and, unlike the case of the CW, a bulk of it was located reasonably close to the potential theater.

    As for the reforms, taking into an account that the driving force of the OTL Uprising was Polish nobility, a meaningful emancipation of the slaves was the last thing they wanted. In OTL Russian government actually accelerated conduct of the reform of the Polish territory to undermine the rebellion. So your scenario also requires serious change of the Polish nobility's brain power.
     
  9. alexmilman Well-Known Member

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    This was, potentially, their only more or less realistic chance but such an uprising could get Prussia directly involved. Still, with only a fraction of the Russian army being involved in the CW, I would not put chance of success too high.
     
  10. lukedalton Well-Known Member

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    First Benvenuto e buona permanenza nel sito, second, yes maybe an expansion of the Crimean war with A-H siding later with Russia will bring Prussia, France and UK to side with a Polish revolt at time
     
  11. SealTheRealDeal Well-Known Member

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    Why is Prussia going to attack two of its allies to support rebels with irredentist claims to Prussian lands, at a time when Prussia is in a military rut?
     
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  12. lukedalton Well-Known Member

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    I know that's a strech but at least in this scenario Prussia can simply decide to allow the use of his territory and port for supply the Poland rebels to gain point with the Anglo-French backing on their victory in the war
     
  13. SealTheRealDeal Well-Known Member

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    And then they've just emboldened their own Poles.
     
  14. alexmilman Well-Known Member

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    Prussia was approximately as much interested in the Polish independence as Austria, aka, not at all due to the obvious “issues”. And, just a nitpicking, there was no A-H in 1856 and Prussia was relatively weak militarily (Roon became Minister of War only in 1859 and Moltke became Chief of the Prussian General Staff only in 1857).

    Then, to keep fantasies close to the reality, any scenario involving Bismark making decisions for Prussia prior to 1962 require OTL change (or simply indicates that author is unaware of the relevant dates) because prior to that year he was Prussian envoy in Frankfurt (1851 - 57) , then ambassador to Russia (1857 - 62) and then for a short while in France. :)
     
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  15. lukedalton Well-Known Member

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    Boys i know is very very unlikely that this will happen and the Polish population in Prussia will probably also rebels if their kin in Russia succeed, but i just try to make at least the scenario credible, and an expansion of the war (that will probably include something in Italy) and Prussia doing a really not wise move in term of diplomacy (to use an euphemism) look the only way
     
  16. alexmilman Well-Known Member

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    Prussia allowing the French troops on its territory ... Not sure that any government would survive such a decision. If this is strictly a supplies issue, even a better situation with the weapons would not help too much against a bigger and better led regular army.
     
  17. lukedalton Well-Known Member

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    For this reason i said supply and not men and the insurrection can succeed...if it's only part of a more widespread war and the bigger and better led regular army had other things to do
     
  18. alexmilman Well-Known Member

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    Ah, I see. Yes, putting improbability aside, this would be probably the only scenario with a chance to success.
     
  19. Historymaster Well-Known Member

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    First of all Baltic Sea is not Prussia propriety. Second, we are in 1863 so I do not understand the remark about Bismark. Third numbers alone do not win wars. Four, there were real projects of an Anglo-French intervention which failed because the revolt was crushed too easily. In this timeline simply a couple of decisions (Traugutt as commander in Chief, official petitions for help, the land reforms ) are taken earlier (they were taken in the OTL too, only later) That's all. To me it is enought. Butterflies will do the rest.
     
  20. alexmilman Well-Known Member

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    First, access to the Polish territories from the Baltic coast was possible only through the Prussian and Prussian ports. With Russia obviously not being interested, Prussia pretty much “owned” the coast relevant within context of this discussion.

    Second, read carefully: comment about Bismark was made in the context of 1656 proposal. OTOH, in 1863 Bismark signed anti-Polish agreement with Russia (which he did not fully implemented).

    Third, even Nappy thought that “God is on the side of the big battalions” (and was the best proof that this principle works even for a military genius) and there is no evidence whatsoever that there was on the Polish side a military genius capable of winning a war against better trained and bigger army.

    Four, the British-French projects belonged to the “Palmerstonian” category (see thread about his plans regarding the CW): aka, being made without consulting the needed parties (Prussia and Austria), which were not at all interested in creation of the independent Poland. And, of course, your own statement about uprising being defeated too fast is killing your #3 argument. So you have catch 22 situation (or 1939, whichever you prefer): the help (realistic or not) could materialize only if there is a prolonged resistance and prolonged resistance is not possible without an outside help. As for the help, Austria declared a martial law in the early 1864 and approximately at that time NIII gave up on the idea.

    As far as Traugutt and the land reform are involved, no miracles to be expected: he was relying on the foreign intervention and Russian Empire already was in a process of the sweeping land reform and abolition of a serfdom so he was not providing peasants with an extra stimulus. Not to mention that it takes time to make soldier out of a peasant and the time was not there (see #3).

    To you your arguments could be enough but you are presumably trying to convince others.
     
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