I can see it now, the British government spending tax dollars to pay off private debt made to slavocrats! The British government didn't lend any money to the CSA and so couldn't forgive any of it. They would have to spend tax money to private British citizens to pay off CSA debt. Not going to happen. Great Britain didn't get so rich by spending money so foolishly.
The US would see it as a hostile act and would do something about it, such as building big naval guns for every port, building a seaworthy navy and massing troops on its northern border. Great Britain can make that threat to Canada go away for quickly and cheaply by NOT helping the CSA.
Mostly in Latin America. They may well interfere in Latin America but backing the CSA is pushing it. Not only would it piss off the USA it would piss off their own abolitionist populace.
Russia has a much higher population than CSA would have and Saudi is under US military protection because it is hardly a military power in its own right.
Mexico is about the same size and is hardly a technological or military powerhouse.
The US has PA, CA and likely OK. These are big oil producers in the 19th and early 20th centuries.
Mexico has a lot of resources, that hasn't helped much.
Russia has a very large population, the CSA wouldn't
Not for long. The US has all sorts of ways to officially or unofficially encourage malcontents to move South. I think most CSA sympathetic border Southerners would move to the CSA within a generation or two or simply change sympathies. Why fight it when you simply can move south?
The fire-eating slavocrats couldn't out-politic a used teabag.
Totally ignoring US nationalism.
The Black Slaves from the CSA would make far better spies than anything the CSA would have in the USA. There is no way the slave loving Charleston Mercury is going to be better at propaganda than the New York Times and the Chicago Tribune.
Agreed.
Being slavocrats the only people they get are idiots.
Assuming open borders, which is one hell of an assumption.
In which case the Democratic Party dissolves with impotence.
West Virginia really, really didn't want to be part of Virginia anymore and would worry if the CSA got too strong they might be forced back in again.
Culturally and trade ties will be stronger between the US and CSA then Mexico and US. CSA shares a language and is much closer to its industrial centers then Mexico. Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Cincinnati, St, Louis, and Chicago are not far from the border. The Atlantic states also has much more regular trade between themselves then northern coastal cities do with the Gulf of Mexico. Their will always be some people doing shady and illegal business. A more divided US makes that easier. Businesses abuse borders and countries different policies. They are mostly doing it for their own interest. If the north breaks down too hard that could drive them to pick up and take everything south feeding into their economy.
I would like to point out southern plantation class might be reactionary but they could end up too distracted with the military and it’s own luxury to involve themselves in actually running most things. That could be managed mostly by the growing middle class. Think of all the corrupt local officials you see in depictions of southern culture or Andrew Johnson types. The CSA could have three to four types of leaders over the years. Someone like Lee who sees the flaws of stuff but doesn’t have enough power to completely change. Lee could become kind of a strongman during his reign and set groundwork for industrialization hoping it would eventually lead to slavery being phased away near turn of the century. Lee being military man focuses heavily on reforming, organized, and building up the national defense forces. He then encourages industrial growth through military production(need to arm police force and local militias in case on slave revolt).
Second type would be someone like Andrew Johnson. A populist to the white underclass but constantly at odds with aristocrats and is extremely racist(paranoid about slave up rising more so then the average confederate). He could also encourage industrialization to help provide jobs to white poor and he careless so about upsetting aristocrats. Lee on the other is aristocrat so he knows how to talk to them but Lee seemed much more pragmatic and actually honorable(not fake like most aristocrats even if some of Lee’s ideas were still a bit unpleasant). He was just extremely loyal to his state(Lee is the closest and one of the few real life examples of a southern aristocrat living the life they often pretend to live). Lee probably becomes a Washington type figure to the republic and acts like Washington in many ways but with more strongman tendencies(he thinks people around him are incompetent and wants to try to preserve the new nation. Lee might be a decent leader after the war and set ground work for confederate development).
The third could be Huey Long type man. A other populist but flips flop a lot depending on the crowd and situation. He a “new money” President and a “self made man”. Him and his family came from poor background but worked their way up to own a bunch of mines, mills, textile, small farms(food crops), few slaves, and some private armies. His policies encourage the development of businesses like his(he changing policies to benefit himself and his support base which leads to more small local industries but still industries). The south could have a bunch of Huey Long, Boss Hog, and “new money” white politicians and businessmen in the south. They won’t be bound to the same taboos as slave owning aristocrats and are often populist(propaganda and politic skills. There are layers to class system in the south besides just master and slave).
The four is traditionalist or Davis type. This would basically be stagnation or recession period but end early if he caves to whatever possible shifts happen in the houses during his presidency.
The last one could be a military general originally from the lower. He could come to power by a coup or force the aristocrats to give them more power over the country with rising unrest and domestic issues. Either way the aristocrats become second to power to the new military elite and junta(the structure with the exception of maybe constitution stays unchanged. President and branches still technically rule but in reality they are puppets of military at worse or like Turkey at best when they only throw coups when they don’t support the president but go back to status quo after). Him and military do all in their power to to strengthen nation which leads it to become more spartan like.
Open borders isn’t an assumptions but fact. The US cannot prevent people from across that border if they really want too. Part of it goes through heart of Appalachia mountains. Many slaves, outlaws, partisan, and whoever else isn’t using roads if they are blocked or patrolled. That whole border being patrolled by either country in that time period is impossible. There will be wide areas of long rural wilderness with no one watching those areas. Those companies back then are probably not checking or have paper work to see who is from where back then.
For economic recovery focusing on diversifying the trade economy is key. Focus on trading a greater variety of raw resources to the market. They might not be able to create factories at first but crop production and mineral extraction can pull them out of debt. The south will have more resources then it can use for itself and the country especially given backward living conditions. Unlike a small Latin American nation that trades one or two resources the south trade dozen or more. They just need to make enough to get out of debt first not compete with US but once they get out it won’t be bad especially if the north really doesn’t invade the south. If the south ends war before the major offensives war repairs won’t be nearly as much. The south can pay off debt by trading its resources when left undamaged by the war for the most part. The south can also sell land, property, or other valuable assets within the nation to pay off debts and help develop at the same time. If they are selling this to private companies or interests groups from multiple nations it balances itself out a bit. No country businesses has full control over CSA due to wide variety of them and CSA has made sure it has finally say in things when needed(they make sure businesses are giving them their cut as thanks for letting them run how the see fit in CSA). Foreign businesses in CSA might become more sympathetic or even loyal to them over time. They are winning many(not all) through brides and corruption. The businesses came to CSA looking to exploit the country for all its worth but many while their actual decide to stay when they figure out “hey I have less tariffs, little taxes, no worker rights, no minimum wage, cheap materials nearby, government support, and plenty of cheap labor”. Many probably decide to stay. A Yankee moving to CSA won’t be the same as him going to Mexico(foreigners also can’t own land or certain things in Mexico. Big hinderance to possible early American business). Southern industrialization might just happen. Even if France stayed a reactionary and backwards regime industrialization from Belgium, Britain, and Germany are likely to drift over by default due to how close it is and how often they react with each other.
Why do you have Oklahoma with union? I’m pretty sure they joined south? When did they fall to the north?