Poll: What happens if a successful Confederacy invades Northern Mexico?

What happens if a successful Confederacy invades Mexico

  • Major Confederate Victory: Takes everything north of Mexico City

    Votes: 18 11.3%
  • Minor Confederate Victory: Border moves 40 miles south

    Votes: 41 25.6%
  • Stalemate

    Votes: 35 21.9%
  • Minor Mexican Victory: Kicks the Confederates totally out and moves the border 10 miles north

    Votes: 37 23.1%
  • Major Mexican Victory: Confederate Army takes huge casualties Mexico takes back half of Texas.

    Votes: 29 18.1%

  • Total voters
    160
Personally I think it would be a disaster as the Union would help supply Mexico and most CSA would have to gaurd its northern border just in case the US would be tempted to attack when most of its army is in Mexico. I figure the last option is most likely due to heavy US involvement.
 
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Prefrence

Banned
If they sided with Maxamillion Nothing.

If they sided with Juarez, Sonora, Chicanahula (however the hell you spell it), and Baja California

If they attacked not in a Civil War.... Mexico makes good gains
 
If they sided with Maxamillion Nothing.

If they sided with Juarez, Sonora, Chicanahula (however the hell you spell it), and Baja California

If they attacked not in a Civil War.... Mexico makes good gains


This is a successful Confederacy, so it is after the CW. The Confederacy is siding with neither. It is a war of conquest.
 
Could be a variety of outcomes - nothing is certain. Relations between the US and CS would be important to take into account and that could be a variety of outlooks.

My opinion would be that the Mexicans don't stand a chance. They can't get their act together and were lucky to have beaten the French at all.
 
Could be a variety of outcomes - nothing is certain. Relations between the US and CS would be important to take into account and that could be a variety of outlooks.

My opinion would be that the Mexicans don't stand a chance. They can't get their act together and were lucky to have beaten the French at all.
This is right after the CW so expect to be the relations of the USA and CSA to be simular to those of the US and USSR in 1951, AT BEST.
 
This is right after the CW so expect to be the relations of the USA and CSA to be simular to those of the US and USSR in 1951, AT BEST.

Key words AT BEST. The US will declare the Monroe Doctrine as suddenly being inclusive of the CSA (yes, I know how absurd that is) and declare war. Reconstruction, Mexico is awarded some territory and probably uses this 'victory' to stabilise and generate something akin to nationalism.

Hey, the CSA invading Mexico might actually be one of the best things that could happen to Mexico ;)
 

loughery111

Banned
My opinion falls somewhere between minor and major Mexican victory; the Confederates wage an unsuccessful counter-insurgency, taking crushing casualties that limit its ability to control its slaves, the United States may well use it as a casus belli and declare war, and in any case the Mexican border probably only sees minute adjustments at war's end, unless the United States wins a crushing victory and begins reabsorbing things, in which case the Mexicans might manage to grab quite a bit of Texas.
 
My opinion falls somewhere between minor and major Mexican victory; the Confederates wage an unsuccessful counter-insurgency, taking crushing casualties that limit its ability to control its slaves, the United States may well use it as a casus belli and declare war, and in any case the Mexican border probably only sees minute adjustments at war's end, unless the United States wins a crushing victory and begins reabsorbing things, in which case the Mexicans might manage to grab quite a bit of Texas.

Why wouldn't the US win a crushing victory? After the Civil War I'm sure they'd have been constantly preparing to reabsorb the south in some manner, and have a lot more people to do it with.

My prediction is that the CSA gets absolutely smashed after a fairly balanced war (meaning that there would be points where the CS forces might win some battles, after all they would probably be quite the paranoid state after independence), but they are ultimately defeated and reintegrated into the USA.

Mexico reannexes some parts of Texas.
 
Why wouldn't the US win a crushing victory? After the Civil War I'm sure they'd have been constantly preparing to reabsorb the south in some manner, and have a lot more people to do it with.

My prediction is that the CSA gets absolutely smashed after a fairly balanced war (meaning that there would be points where the CS forces might win some battles, after all they would probably be quite the paranoid state after independence), but they are ultimately defeated and reintegrated into the USA.

Mexico reannexes some parts of Texas.

That's just abserd. The US jsut lost the Civil War and had an angry population to deal with. The CSA has likely managed to gain some sort of international backing at this point. The Union isn't going to like the Confederacy taking any more territory, but there is very little they can do, unless they want to offend Britain and France.
Likely? The CSA, which has a very strong military tradition, is able to make some initial gains and, possibly, strip the northernmost tier of states from Mexico, but they get drawn into a nasty insurgency.
This is where the USA comes in; supplying weapons, finances and, most likely, volunteers to the rebels.
 
I'm fairly sure the US isn't going simply let Mexico walk away with former-American territory, resources and population. Perhaps a 'return sale' from the Gadsen Purchase and some of the New Mexico territory, if the Mexicans get lucky. Depending on how the entire situation played out you might see the Mexicans and Americans pulling together; military alliances, economic bloc, etc. Either way the British are going to suddenly be very, very nervous; expect the Canadians to start building more forts and railroads near the border.

I voted for stalemate, but in reality it would be a major Mexican victory; I just don't see how the Mexicans gain any Texan territory out of it. I think this thread suffers from this particular trope.
 
CSA attacks and attempts to conquer portions of Mexico, the US almost guaranteed will intervene as per the Monroe Doctrine, Mexico pushing for territorial concessions from the CSA will bother the US, who feel that they had a lot of hard-earned work going into settling all those Mexican Cession territories and that they aren't just going to give em back.

Basically the situation is as follows: Mexico feels (and probably is pretty justified in thinking as such) that it can probably win against the CSA in the long term but in the meantime the war will be expensive and costly and generally a major pain to have to deal with. US intervention needless to say will end Mexico's problems with those rebel Southerners. The US will have a decent read on the Mexican situation and, knowing that their charity or lack thereof could very easily make the war alternatively much easier or much harder for Mexico and thus will laugh off any proposals of "rewards" to the Mexicans for fighting against the Confederacy.
 
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CSA attacks and attempts to conquer portions of Mexico, the US almost guaranteed will intervene as per the Monroe Doctrine, Mexico pushing for territorial concessions from the CSA will bother the US, who feel that they had a lot of hard-earned work going into settling all those Mexican Cession territories and that they aren't just going to give em back.

Okay, I hate to be the bringer ofbad news, but the Monroe Doctrine would have no bearing on this. The Monroe Doctrine specifically stated that no European powers could interfere with the development of North and South America. The CSA does not constitute a European power.
Furthermore, the Monroe Doctrine, until the 20th century was supported heavily by Britain. Without their support, the US doesn't have a proverbial plank to stand on.
Pushing it even furter, the CSA would be fighing, most likely, against Maxamillian; a foreign 'Emperor' imposed by European powers. The CSA would be the nation most likely to claim that the Monroe Doctrine relates to them, as the are fighting to return Mexico to a civil government; if they ask for compensation, that is only fair.
After the Civil war, as much as the US wants revenge, its most likely going to be dominated by the copperhead Democrats who want to see CSA cotton flowing to their mills. Also, they are going to be very unlikely to alienate Britain which will be a supporter of the Confederacy.
Most likely, you end u pwith a straight up war with the CSA 'helping' to topple the Habsburg Emperor and demanding territory as compensation. The Conferdacy gets what it wants, but has to deal with rebel forces which, likely, are being supplied by the USA (although there is no evidence to support this assumption)
 
I'm pretty sure the USA and CSA would do an exception for each other - or ANY powerfull americas based state. First, they are now ennemies.
 
That's just abserd. The US jsut lost the Civil War and had an angry population to deal with. The CSA has likely managed to gain some sort of international backing at this point. The Union isn't going to like the Confederacy taking any more territory, but there is very little they can do, unless they want to offend Britain and France.
Likely? The CSA, which has a very strong military tradition, is able to make some initial gains and, possibly, strip the northernmost tier of states from Mexico, but they get drawn into a nasty insurgency.
This is where the USA comes in; supplying weapons, finances and, most likely, volunteers to the rebels.


Is GB and France willing to actually DO anything about it? Damn unlikely.
 
I'm fairly sure the US isn't going simply let Mexico walk away with former-American territory, resources and population. Perhaps a 'return sale' from the Gadsen Purchase and some of the New Mexico territory, if the Mexicans get lucky. Depending on how the entire situation played out you might see the Mexicans and Americans pulling together; military alliances, economic bloc, etc. Either way the British are going to suddenly be very, very nervous; expect the Canadians to start building more forts and railroads near the border.

I voted for stalemate, but in reality it would be a major Mexican victory; I just don't see how the Mexicans gain any Texan territory out of it. I think this thread suffers from this particular trope.

Why not? The land taken would be from the CSA and not the USA. Unless the USA is able and willing to retake it the entire CSA it will happily allow its chief rival to become weaker. If the CSA folds it can take it then. After the South wins the Civil War they would consider Southerners traitors not "Fellow Americans".
 
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