Poll- should/would LBJ run for reelection in the TL "Alternate Vietnam partition, war and 1960s"

Should LBJ run for reelection in this TL?

  • yes

    Votes: 13 68.4%
  • no

    Votes: 6 31.6%

  • Total voters
    19

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
Donor
Monthly Donor
If you're reading my new TL titled, "Alternate Vietnam partition, war and 1960s", would you prefer I have LBJ run for reelection in 1968 or not?

To summarize where the thread stands now, I have brought the TL up to Christmas 1967.
Because of territorial and demographic changes dating to the 1954 partition of Vietnam, Ngo Dinh Diem is in power, the collapse of the Saigon regime to either internal strife or rural insurgency is not perceived as imminent, and other than the presence of 75,000 US specialist advisors, Vietnam is a distant low-intensity conflict to the American and world audiences rather than "the Vietnam War". The Johnson Administration has not yet been faced with the imminent choice of "escalate big or lose" that it felt it faced in OTL '64 and '65, and has been able to focus more on domestic politics and policy.

Under these circumstances, do you prefer to see LBJ plan to run for reelection or to step down after completing a successful single-term presidency?

While ultimately the war and primary challenges in OTL prompted LBJ not to run for reelection, I've at least heard rumors that as early as 64 or 65 LBJ was thinking of not running again. Otherwise I would not have even considered him not running as an option.

Map from the TL:

Vietnam partitioned at 15th parallel.gif
 
Last edited:

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
Donor
Monthly Donor
..thanks for weighing in with votes so far. Would be interested in hearing your rationale for LBJ going one way or the other. And would be interested in any speculation on domestic American impacts of no Vietnam War for the America of 1965, 1966 and 1967.
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
Donor
Monthly Donor
...by the way, I see scant prospect for LBJ to avoid either losing or seriously escalating in Vietnam through a second term.

Letting him quit after one-term can leave his reputation in better than OTL shape. If he goes through a second term his legacy will be more sullied with the left or right or both, much like in OTL.
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
Donor
Monthly Donor
Also with the US going through 1965, 1966 and 1967 only spending at a level around what it was spending in 63 or 64 in Vietnam, could the lack of economic stimulus result in a recession?

Could the apollo missions have been sped up, leading to a moon landing in 1967 or 1968?
 
...by the way, I see scant prospect for LBJ to avoid either losing or seriously escalating in Vietnam through a second term.

Letting him quit after one-term can leave his reputation in better than OTL shape. If he goes through a second term his legacy will be more sullied with the left or right or both, much like in OTL.

Considering that OTL LBJ died two days after Inauguration Day 1973, I find it very likely that his re-election in 1968 is a death sentence in his second full term, even without the stress of the OTL Vietnam War.
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
Donor
Monthly Donor
Alright - the people have spoken, by more than two to one. LBJ is running for reelection.....and going to war!

For various indirect reasons the altered partition of Vietnam bought LBJ time to delays major decisions on Vietnam, and to focus on his domestic agenda, but that time is up!
 
Last edited:
@John Farson LBJ went on a so-called death spiral after his OTL Presidency by returning to his vices, and it specifically happened because he was no longer president (he stopped his vices in 1955 when he became a Senator), greatly shortening his lifespan. If he's POTUS for another four years, it's plausible that he's in much better shape and would serve a full second elected term.
 
Top