Poll:Reagan primaries Ford in 1976, does he win the general election?

If Ronald Reagan primaried President Ford in 1976, would he win the general election?

  • Yes, he wins the election

    Votes: 8 22.2%
  • No, he loses the election

    Votes: 28 77.8%

  • Total voters
    36
  • Poll closed .
If Ronald Reagan had won the 1976 Republican primaries/convention, against President Ford as IOTL, would he win the general election? He could be weaker in the Midwest, and be regarded as more of an extremist, as well as having a deeply divided party and might not be as polished. However, he could also wouldn't have Ford's weaknesses(Nixon pardon), be an outsider and be able to use his charisma. He would probably do better in the debates where he wouldn't gaffe like Ford. What do you think?
 
I still think he loses and does worse than Ford. I've heard many people say otherwise, but they've failed to convince me that Reagan would do better against Carter in 1976.
 
I still think he loses and does worse than Ford. I've heard many people say otherwise, but they've failed to convince me that Reagan would do better against Carter in 1976.

Have to agree, Ford was a pretty brilliant campaigner and managed to turn Carter's 25-point lead into a 2-point one by election day. He had many celebrity endorsements, did statesman work, and oversaw the bicentennial celebrations during the course of the campaign. Reagan would have none of these advantages, and the only real benefit he could add over Ford would be his 'Washington outsider' status.

As for the debates, Ford was considered the winner even with his gaffes IOTL, as his poll numbers rose against Carter after them.
 
Not only is Reagan of the President's party in bad economic times, ask John McCain, but he has unpopular views like his opposition to Medicare.
 
Why do people seem to be saying Reagan was less polished in 1976? He gave a brilliant speech at the convention, so much that many delegates wondered if they'd nominated the wrong guy. I think Reagan would also win some states in the South, not too many, but maybe Texas, so he'd be closer to victory if he could perform well nationwide, especially on the debate stage. Carter lost against Ford in the first debate, so against Reagan he'd struggle. The obstacles against Reagan are still pretty intense though, and while he has his own strengths he doesn't have Ford's. I'd call the race a toss up, but you can take it either way depending on what you want.
 
The point isn't that Reagan was less polished in 1976, but that the conditions were infinitely worse for the GOP than in 1980. I do not think that Reagan did any better in 1980 than any other Republican would have done. (Recession, a misery index around 20% https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Misery_index_(economics), long gas lines, the continuing Iranian hostage crisis--the first anniversary of which was Election Day, as the media reminded voters!-- the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, the grain embargo which enraged farmers--why *shouldn't* the 1980 Republican presidential candidate win by a substantial margin?)

Moreover, the Electoral College would not be in Reagan's favor in 1976. The states where he would presumably do better than Ford would be in the West and the South. But Ford won every western state except Hawaii (which there is no reason to think Reagan would have won) anyway. Winning California and Nevada by bigger margins than Ford did will do nothing for Reagan in the Electoral College. As for the South, Carter's being from the Deep South gave him substantial margins of victory there; Reagan might cut into them, but in most southern states he would be unlikely to overcome them completely. Indeed, *even in 1980* Carter not only carried Georgia but came very close to carrying a large number of other southern states--Alabama, Arkansas, Kentucky, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_1980

By contrast, Reagan might well lose some northeastern and midwestern states Ford narrowly carried. But even if he doesn't he is by no means guaranteed victory.
 
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