Poll: Political fate of Cambodia without US invasion

Without US invasion, who ends up in control of Cambodia in 1970s


  • Total voters
    45

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
Donor
Monthly Donor
If President Nixon (or a President Humphrey) did not invade Cambodia in 1970, what is Cambodia's most likely political fate in the short-run and long-run:

A) Pol Pot's Khmer Rouge still take over, possibly earlier and have at least a few years to conduct auto-genocide

B) Sihanouk is restored by Vietnamese military and/or a brokered deal with Lon Nol regime, and remains titular head for decades. Khmer Rouge perhaps control local pockets but never take national power.

C) Vietnamese install a "domesticated" version of the "Khmer Rouge" lacking the most radical tendencies of the movement and purged of overtly anti-Vietnamese elements (much like the Heng Samrin and Hun Sen governments) at some point in the 1970s, and before Pol Pot ever gets a chance to rule.
 

d32123

Banned
I'm no Cambodia expert, so take this with a grain of salt.

I think the Khmer Republic would probably survive, at least until the Vietnamese intervene. By 1970 Sihanouk had lost credibility with large portions of the country due to economic collapse and his inability to adequately defend the country's borders and I don't really see him being able to retake power without outside help. IOTL he buddied up with the Khmer Rouge, which ultimately backfired, but I don't see him being able to raise enough support to take back his throne. By 1970 most urban Khmer were sick of him. If things go poorly I could see Sirik Matak, who was more royalist than Lon Nol, being willing to entertain the idea, but in essence the entire legitimacy of the new regime was about turning the page and instituting a new form of dictatorship.

Without the U.S. invasion, the Khmer Rouge are likely unable to seize power. I don't know if the Khmer Republic will be able to fully oust the Khmer Rouge, but without American forces devastating the countryside, they won't have the necessary propaganda to win over the peasantry nor the outside support to seize power.

Vietnam is probably the greatest threat to the Republic's survival. Once they unify, they are going to want to put an end to what will be a racist, nationalist, and aggressive regime next door (Khmer Republic was notoriously vicious towards its ethnic minorities, especially the Vietnamese). IOTL the Khmer Rouge had an....aggressive foreign policy that involved lots of cross border raiding. I can't see the Khmer Republic maintaining such a nutty foreign policy, but I also see the Vietnamese being interested in creating a friendly neighbor once they get their own house in order.

So I'm going for Lon Nol for now, but Vietnam could easily decide to intervene. No matter what happens, it's automatically an improvement over the horrors of OTL.
 
I think one of the pressing issues for the Khmer republic is ensuring the few capable Administrators are promoted within the regime. One of the key critiques of Norodom Sihanouk was the endemic corruption that flourished under his regime. Accordingly, if the Khmer Republic is to survive they will need to address corruption as one of their key priorities.

The second point is does South Vietnam survive in this timeline, as Cambodia provides the strategic depth necessary for their defence. For Cambodia a united Vietnam, whether pro Western or Communist provides a threat, so if the leadership are strategic than co-operation is necessary. However, as d32123 has pointed out the racial hatred preached towards the ethnic Vietnamese in Cambodia began with the Khmer republic, so that will need to be addressed. In fact it is not impossible to consider a larger form of ethnic relocation from both sides.

The military will also need to be expanded which requires support from Thailand Vietnam and the United States. Strangely enough during the OTL the Cambodian government formed closer ties with the Indonesian military and particular the Kopassus, a link that continues to this day.

In short the Khmer Republic can survive but will need to put its best foot forward. However, the ability to do so was lacking from the OTL and would require some butterflies to achieve.
 
An interesting scenario...

The scenario might have occured that Pol Pot ruled Cambodia, while South Vietnam survived as a truncated version. This will make North Vietnam (or PRG), South Vietnam had common borders with Khmer Rouge :eek:.

This could have occured because: USSR severed relations with Lon Nol's republic one month before 17 April 1975, as it was clear that Lon Nol's republic could not survive in any extent. With humanitarian aid to Phnom Penh, less people would have starved but still not related to ammunition problems. Morale of FANK still collapsed :(.

For Gerald Ford's aid and possible short-time interventions, if had occurred, would be provided to South Vietnam rather than Khmer Republic, as the priority of South Vietnam would have been higher than Khmer Republic. Furthermore, Sino-American reapproachment might make Ford administration to targeting on pro-Soviet North Vietnam rather than Pro-China Pol Pot. Anyway, the winning of North Vietnam had large effects on geopolitics, but winning of weaker Pol Pot had virtually no effects on geopolitics "other than genocides".

Even without American aid, Thieu's decision and arrangements would have been critical for longer struggle in exclaves in Corps I and II, and plausible defense in Corps III and IV. Still if Thieu's government ever survived, it would have been too weak to intervene Khmer's political change. Thai would not likely to intervene other than border regions.

PRG would be likely to share a small border with Khmer Rouge, which North Vietnamese intervention of Pol Pot (if neccessary) would have been reduced. Genocide might last longer if Khmer Rouge ruled Cambodia :mad:.
 
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