Poll: Likely post-WWI border for Italy if it stayed neutral and Entente won

Italy neutral in WWI; Entente still wins; where is Italy's northern border?

  • OTL's 1914 Italian-Austrian border

    Votes: 14 33.3%
  • OTL's 1919 Italian-Austrian border

    Votes: 4 9.5%
  • In between: Italy gets Trentino, Austria gets Bozen

    Votes: 21 50.0%
  • something else

    Votes: 3 7.1%

  • Total voters
    42

raharris1973

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If Italy had stayed neutral in WWI, and the Entente won anyway, what borders for Italy would have been most likely.

a) OTL's 1914 Italian-Austrian border

b) OTL's 1919 Italian-Austrian border

c) In between: Italy gets Trentino, Austria gets Bozen

d) something else

Italy was of course largely motivated by territorial desire, and the postwar treaties confirmed what Italy won militarily.

However, territorial gains by neutrals would not have been impossible. Denmark gained northern Schleswig not as a reward for war participation but just because the victors agreed with that neutral country's demographically-based claim.

Thoughts?
 
If Italy had stayed neutral in WWI, and the Entente won anyway, what borders for Italy would have been most likely.

a) OTL's 1914 Italian-Austrian border

b) OTL's 1919 Italian-Austrian border

c) In between: Italy gets Trentino, Austria gets Bozen

d) something else

Italy was of course largely motivated by territorial desire, and the postwar treaties confirmed what Italy won militarily.

However, territorial gains by neutrals would not have been impossible. Denmark gained northern Schleswig not as a reward for war participation but just because the victors agreed with that neutral country's demographically-based claim.

Thoughts?
Probably what they got OTL.
 
Well I'll throw in something a bit left-field.

Obviously they aren't going to be given more than they got OTL, but that doesn't prevent them from intervening when Austria-Hungary collapses to take more land than they were given.

In OTL they were angry at not getting Rijeka (Fiume :mad:) and other areas in Dalmatia, as well as Vlore in Albania.

With the war going pretty much as OTL (with the exception of the Alpine Front), then the Italians won't be bled white like they were historically. This will allow them to muscle in when the Kingdom of Serbs, Croats and Slovenes hasn't really got off the ground yet. I can't see the great powers doing anything to oppose this, as it will essentially be a fait accompli.
 
Well on one side much depend on what kind of neutral Italy was:

- true
- favorable to the entente
- favorable to the CP

In the first two cases both France and UK can agree to give her part of their claim as compensation/political move/balance of power; in the third case well it will be much harder as Italy supported the defeated party and make things for the entente much harder.

On the other side, Italy is not only a Great Power but the only one that is basically untouched by the war so she have a certain degree of capacity of pressure.
At this there is the need to determinate how the warring nation are at the end of this war; if Italy non partecipation mean that the CP decide to surrender earlier Rome influence will be less but in case of the same destruction of OTL or more, italian political gain will be much more.

In any case she will not get what obtained in OTL (unless there is an armed confrontation with whatever succesor state of A-H) at the negotiation table.
Italy can easily get:
- Trentino with a favorable border in term of defence
- some border change in the east (land west of the Isonzo plus the city of Monfalcone and surrounding)
- the island of Pelagosa (strategic point on the Adriatic).
- control of Albania (Italy already had a big foothold there by basically controlling the south, the trick/problem is determinate how big will be Albania at the end).
- minor non territorial perk (right for the italian minority, some local autonomy for city like Trieste, Zara and Fiume and the neutralization of some island in Dalmatia).
- some colonial border change (probably more or less what obtained after the end of the war by Mussolini aka lot of sand but that look good on the map)
 
How does the Entente win WW1 with a [mostly to totally] neutral Italy? Could an earlier American or Greek entry on the Entente side or better Russian performance and a sensible Austria Hungary do the trick?
 
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yourworstnightmare

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They'll probably try to solve the Austro- Italian border through referenda in that case. And then of course everyone would be cheating, because that's how these kind of referenda work.
 
I can't imagine an outcome like OTL if Italy was (true) neutral. Many resources were poured into the italian front from 1915. All those go elsewhere.

With Italy neutral I usually assume that we get the CPs winning, but going with the OP Lets assume the Entente won.

In the absence of Italy the Entende decides it needs a strong third front in Europe - naturally that would be the Balkans. So when in 1916 Charles/Karl becomes emperor and he can't convince the Germans to make peace on the turn 1916/1917 he faces a strong Entente Army slowly moving North through the Balkans. He has feelers in Paris (Sixtus affair Mk II) Only this TL Austria-Hungary is not as dependent on Germany as OTL (Italy missing main reason). Also France is not oblieged to heed Italian wishes, so Austria and France find a "good" compromise.

Basically Austria Returns to itsl OTL borders with the following exceptions:

The territories of Bosnia-Hercegovina and Ragusa (Dubrovnic) go to Serbia while Kotor is ceded to Montenegro.

MEanwhile Russia collapses as OTL ;) (much happens parallel A-H still is in the war against Russia,..)

Hungary feels cheated and breaks loose from the doulble Monacy and takes Croatia with it (which then clamns the rest of Dalmatia.

At this time Italy steps in and demands "what is rightfully Italian". Fearing another war Karl agrees to give up Trentino and agrees to the Isonzo border (Trieste is too important to give up, but Italy is guarnateed a "Special Status" in the City) Austria retains South Tirol, and the "Südsteirmark" including the remainder of the "Küstenland". BOhemia and Moravia also break free but Austria manages to get the border regions along ist northern Borders (which was mainly German speaking at the time) Galica goes to Poland (as Germany missing its ally) is forced to ask for terms earlier.


What becomes of Hungary and Croatia other s have to determine :D
 
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