The so called Butterfly Effect makes any (good written) TL diverge more and more from OTL as time passes, eventually leading to an unrecognizable World.
If, just after the POD, (almost) everything could be rationally deduced from the POD, as the TL progresses the author eventually has to start making stuff up (new characters, events, wars, etc).
Just vote according to your preference.
Feel free to add anything in the comments.
Thanks.
Amber