Poll: Consequences of no Hitler

Most likely consequence of no Hitler?

  • Far-right government + large European war

    Votes: 11 20.4%
  • Far-right government but no large European war

    Votes: 26 48.1%
  • Large European war but no far-right government

    Votes: 10 18.5%
  • Neither far-right government nor large European war

    Votes: 7 13.0%

  • Total voters
    54

Deleted member 1487

Likely Germany gets a revanchist government of the right wing variety, probably a military one, but it would not start a major war in Europe, because they were fundamentally rational actors; even von Blomberg who was really pro-Nazi balked at Hitler talk of war in 1937 at Hossbach, so got removed as a result. Someone less pro-Nazi would be Chief of Staff without Hitler, so they'd be even less likely to advise or sanction war.
 
Likely Germany gets a revanchist government of the right wing variety, probably a military one, but it would not start a major war in Europe, because they were fundamentally rational actors; even von Blomberg who was really pro-Nazi balked at Hitler talk of war in 1937 at Hossbach, so got removed as a result. Someone less pro-Nazi would be Chief of Staff without Hitler, so they'd be even less likely to advise or sanction war.

I think this probably covers it - lots of Right wing Governments in Europe at this time and I can see it rearming later than OTL only in the face of a threat from the USSR.
 

Deleted member 1487

I think this probably covers it - lots of Right wing Governments in Europe at this time and I can see it rearming later than OTL only in the face of a threat from the USSR.
And without Hitler as an icebreaker Stalin doesn't go to war and continues to lobotomize his nation with purges to stay in power. The right wing discredits itself in the long run anyway due to their failed economic policies, because fear of the 'evil commies' only lasts so long when people can't feed their families.
 
Given the hatred and desire for getting rid of the Versailles Treaty by virtually the entire German nation there would have been a European war sooner or later.
 
Even A 1930s Germany without Hitler would do War in Europe

The reason is simple: the treaty of Versailles
lost of territory, lost of Colony, aggregate indemnity, interdiction and prohibition on aircraft and Military production.
most Germans consider this as humiliation and wanted avenge the responsible: the french.

who ever rule Germany they will start War to regain former Border of Imperial Germany and there former colony...
 

Deleted member 1487

Given the hatred and desire for getting rid of the Versailles Treaty by virtually the entire German nation there would have been a European war sooner or later.
The ToV was already being worn away before Hitler got into power. Its likely that another leader would have ripped it up eventually without war.
 
The ToV was already being worn away before Hitler got into power. Its likely that another leader would have ripped it up eventually without war.

That's what I meant. The Germans were already looking at ways of going around the ToV. For example, they were working with the USSR and training the German Army in the USSR in the 1920's. I think that there would eventually be a conflict over the Danzig corridor.
 
The only thing I take for granted is that a lack of Hitler results in the preservation of eastern German lands as, well, German lands. Because whatever happens, an alternate World War II without the Nazis means that there won't be anything like Barbarossa, let alone the backlash of Russians standing in Berlin and moving Poland westward.
 
That's what I meant. The Germans were already looking at ways of going around the ToV. For example, they were working with the USSR and training the German Army in the USSR in the 1920's. I think that there would eventually be a conflict over the Danzig corridor.

Probably, yes. All German parties, even the moderate ones, were thouroughly against Versailles and, particularly, the border changes. While they could write off the Danish expansion (it was largely irrelevant and not particularly important) and, in a pinch, Alsace-Lorraine, the Eastern borders were generally unaccaptable to the Germans.

So, yes, there would have been a conflict with the Poles, but would this spiral into a large war or would it remain limited to a German-Polish fracas? That's more questionable, IMO. The Little Entente was falling apart and a resurgent (but rational) Germany might be able to politically isolate Poland ... there was some sympathy for the German cause OTL (wasted by Hitler for the most part), at least from Britain and France wasn't going to go to war without Britain to back them up.

Of course, it could spiral out into a larger war, as well. Probably with a Berlin-Moscow axis on one side (the Germans were pretty buddy with the Soviets well before the Nazis).
 
A lot depends of course on the definition of far right but while the right would probably dominate German politics for the foreseeable I would generally expect the coalition system in the Reichstag to produce a more centre-right conservative preponderance. Admittedly weak democracy might produce a kind of Thai style government by use of Presidential emergency powers followed by brief flirtation with democracy and back again regime but unlikely the far right would be able to sufficiently dominate the conservative core power blocks in the same manner as Hitler only just managed to pull off for long enough to make stick.

As pointed out above Versailles was busy withering and dying quite happily on its own to the point that eventually even an SPD governments might have been the one to dispense with it.

While you cannot guarantee there would not be a major war in Europe I do not feel it is a given. Without a single all powerful megalomaniac to drive the issue it is likely that regimes looking to re-arm would soon calculate the cost of out-arming France and Britain to be too great without looting the economy and making war not at a time of their choosing too great a risk. Thus I would anticipate the Reichswehr being slightly more than capable of offering credible defence of Germany but not a lot more. Perhaps cycles of intensive spending followed by retrenchment would become the norm.

In the likely event of war between Japan and China (likely considering that being a common state of affairs from 1895 onwards) Germany might well discover selling arms to China is more profitable than making war itself.

The menace of a heavily armed USSR might provide a credible focus for right wing paranoia the rest of the time without the need for any flying bullets.

Nothing can be deemed certain but I strongly suspect there was a high probability of most of Europe being mostly at peace most of the time without the rather unfortunate coincidence of Hitler and Hindenburg and von Papen and the Wall Street Crash and...a very long list from which you do not have to remove much to avert the course of events that transpired OTL.
 
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