Politics in the USA if the CSA breaks away successfully?

My first thought is the northern political system in the decades immediately following the civil war would be divided between the Republicans, representing the eastern mercantile establishment, and an alliance between big-city socialists and western pro-silver farmers, resembling the Progressive Party of 1924.
 
My first thought is the northern political system in the decades immediately following the civil war would be divided between the Republicans, representing the eastern mercantile establishment, and an alliance between big-city socialists and western pro-silver farmers, resembling the Progressive Party of 1924.

Leaving aside the fact that a succesful southern secession is kind of... difficult, I agree that such a farmer-labor alliance could very well be in the cards. Do keep in mind that the Republicans were broader than "the eastern mercantile establishment," but I find individual Republicans switching to a farmer-labor movement (Popular Party? Populist Party?) while the party leadership backs the wealthy establishment more convincing than the wealthy establishment forming its own party.

Either way, you'd see such a political division. Probably earlier than IOTL. And chances are such a Popular Party would come into power around the turn of the century. Depending on the exact scenario, this varies. The longer and more costly the Civil War is, the more destitute veterans you're likely to see, and the earlier a popular movement could rise up.

But again: Confederate victory is not exactly an easy thing to just achieve. The ATL events that lead to that scenario will likely be of such a nature that they will also affect the post-war world.
 

Anaxagoras

Banned
The problem with the idea of a farm-labor alliance is that the farmers are in rural areas, which tend to be Republican and nativist, and the laborers are in big cities, which tend to be Democratic and largely immigrant.
 

frlmerrin

Banned
I strongly suspect with the slumps in investment and immigration giving rise to a terrible depression you are going to see the rise of a much more coherent labour movement much earlier and this will give rise to at least one Socialist party. As with most depressions you are also going to see the rise of right wing extremism, probably an authoritarian, nativist, anti-immigration, anti-black party seeking the recovery of part or all of the CSA.
 
The problem with the idea of a farm-labor alliance is that the farmers are in rural areas, which tend to be Republican and nativist, and the laborers are in big cities, which tend to be Democratic and largely immigrant.

That's an obstacle, yes. But is it insurmountable? No. Several other nations (Canada, Australia) saw an alliance between the 'rural downtrodden' and the 'urban downtrodden' emerge. The key is to have populist leaders from both sides of the fence willing to work together. Then they can frame the whole political debate as a struggle between 'the common man' and 'the wealthy elite'.

Despite the problem of getting the CSA to succeed in its struggle for independence in the first place, such a political development in the north would be interesting to see.

(Interesting possible side-effect: the poor whites of the CSA might take inspiration from a succesful popular movement in the USA. I would expect the slaveholding elite to react with brutal repression if the 'commoners get uppity'. Violent revolution in the CSA could be an outcome.)
 
Leaving aside the fact that a succesful southern secession is kind of... difficult, I agree that such a farmer-labor alliance could very well be in the cards. Do keep in mind that the Republicans were broader than "the eastern mercantile establishment," but I find individual Republicans switching to a farmer-labor movement (Popular Party? Populist Party?) while the party leadership backs the wealthy establishment more convincing than the wealthy establishment forming its own party.

Either way, you'd see such a political division. Probably earlier than IOTL. And chances are such a Popular Party would come into power around the turn of the century. Depending on the exact scenario, this varies. The longer and more costly the Civil War is, the more destitute veterans you're likely to see, and the earlier a popular movement could rise up.

But again: Confederate victory is not exactly an easy thing to just achieve. The ATL events that lead to that scenario will likely be of such a nature that they will also affect the post-war world.
I know it's hard, seeing as it did not happen in our timeline. That does not make it impossible. No harm in speculating.

If you're interested, I'm actually working on a timeline where Andrew Jackson loses the Battle of New Orleans and fades into irrelevance, in order to explore a history of the United States without Jacksonian democracy. Right now I'm leaning towards an earlier civil war, and as a result, the southern state seceding.

The problem with the idea of a farm-labor alliance is that the farmers are in rural areas, which tend to be Republican and nativist, and the laborers are in big cities, which tend to be Democratic and largely immigrant.
While that is true on the face of it, I will point out that such an alliance was struck in 1924. Also, the two-party nature of the US system would seem to necessitate an alliance between these two factions, as they have more in common with each other than with northeastern elites. Or could a three-party system work in this scenario?

I strongly suspect with the slumps in investment and immigration giving rise to a terrible depression you are going to see the rise of a much more coherent labour movement much earlier and this will give rise to at least one Socialist party. As with most depressions you are also going to see the rise of right wing extremism, probably an authoritarian, nativist, anti-immigration, anti-black party seeking the recovery of part or all of the CSA.
I agree with you on the stronger socialist movement. I don't know why this scenario would lead to a slump in immigration, though. I can definitely see a bit of recidivism, though I don't know if those factors would lead to a new nativist party or just influence one of the existing parties for a time. I can see the Republican party dominating politics in the years immediately after the conclusion of the war in a similar way to Democratic-Republicans did during the Era of Good Feelings (perhaps this would be an Era of Bad Feelings?). And the election 1868 being a chaotic mess with a liberal republican candidate, nativist recidivist candidate, western farmer candidate, and socialist candidate all doing fairly well.
 
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