Political Ramifications of “North Japan”

Incognito

Banned
So I’ve seen this scenario pop up a few times before: assume that like OTL Germany, Vietnam and Korea ATL post-WW2 Japan is divided into a US-client “South Japan” and a USSR-client “North Japan”. Let’s also assume that this North Japan survives the fall of the USSR and like North Korea does not unify with its southern neighbor. Let’s also assume that (and this is purely author fiat here) that modern North Japan is slightly less horrible than North Korea, avoiding the whole mass famine thing etc.

Here is the question: given the existing animosities and territorial disputes between East Asian nations, how would the existence of North Japan play into the mix. For example, what do you think North Japan’s stance would be on Spratly Islands dispute? Or how do you think North Japan’s Premier/Chairman/Dear Leader/whomever would react to Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s recent statement that “Imperial Japan never invaded anyone in WW2”?

(P.S.: in order to discuss these and similar events, let’s assume that a butterfly net makes sure that 1) the OTL Prime Ministers of Japan = ATL Prime Ministers of South Japan 2) South Japan develops like OTL Japan and that 3) the various OTL disputes in East Asia still occur)
 
ramones1986

ramones1986

Incognito said:
Minimum: Sakhalin & the other islands + Hokkaido.

Maximum: Sakhalin & the other islands + Hokkaido + northern half of Honshu.
Click to expand...
Because you give the borders of North Japan, I imagine what would be its policy towards the Ainus and other minority groups?
 

Incognito

Banned
ramones1986 said:
Because you give the borders of North Japan, I imagine what would be its policy towards the Ainus and other minority groups?
Click to expand...
If North Japan only has Hokkaido and smaller islands than wouldn't the Ainus make up the largest ethnic group? I imagine the Soviets than hand over power on the island to some Communist Ainus leaders. No sense in turning the majority against you if it can be avoided, right?

If North Japan has chunks of Honshu (which has more population than Hokkaido IIRC), the population balance might shift more towards "ethnic" Japanese. I have no idea what the attitude of Japanese communists was towards the Ainus. Lets assume that its like in OTL Japan: some accusations of disenfranchisement towards Ainus but no ethnic death gulags or anything.
 

EternalCynic

Given its geographic location it will be under tight Soviet control. Moscow will never allow a Ceausescu-like figure, so assume North Japan resembles DDR during the Cold War. North Japan's leadership are Soviet puppets through and through.

In 1989, mass protests erupt across North Japan. This time the North Japanese State Security (given the Japanese obsession for perfection, the Japanese secret police will be as terrifying as the Stasi) brutally crush them. After the USSR's fall, North Japan's economy is reformed: its cheap, educated, and Japanese-speaking workforce become the destination for South Japanese companies' outsourcing. However the state retains the militarism and political repression of the Soviet era.

It's later discovered that North Japan has collaborated with fraternal socialist state DPRK in developing nuclear bombs. However North Japan never engages in the attention seeking or insanity of its Korean counterpart, as South Japanese investment keeps its people quiet. Instead it pays lip service to reunification, though accuses the unrepentant fascists of the south of impeding that goal. The border between the Japans resembles the Inner German Border rather than the DMZ: limited, state-approved travel is permitted, though undesired crossing is strictly illegal.
 

Incognito

Banned
OK, I just looked it up on Wikipedia. Apparently the current official estimates of the Ainu population in Japan put them at around 25,000 while unofficial number is upward of 200,000. So even in Hokkaido they are not the majority.
 

BBadolato

Couldn't only a North Japan consisting of only Hokkaido since the other islands would be out the question, largely be considered not "Japanese" by it'a Aniu population, Ninja'd. Well even then wouldn't size, unless they at least have the northern parts on Honshu make it a modern day Ezo Republic, anyway?
 
Vingilótë

Vingilótë

Incognito said:
If North Japan only has Hokkaido and smaller islands than wouldn't the Ainus make up the largest ethnic group? I imagine the Soviets than hand over power on the island to some Communist Ainus leaders. No sense in turning the majority against you if it can be avoided, right?

If North Japan has chunks of Honshu (which has more population than Hokkaido IIRC), the population balance might shift more towards "ethnic" Japanese. I have no idea what the attitude of Japanese communists was towards the Ainus. Lets assume that its like in OTL Japan: some accusations of disenfranchisement towards Ainus but no ethnic death gulags or anything.
Click to expand...

Was the population of Hokkaido really majority Ainu at this point in time? Because this would have been after the major colonization drives of the 1800s, and I think that if there was sufficient grounds for detaching Hokkaido from Japan OTL, such as majority non-Japanese population, it would have been done.

Of course, if that's the case, I would not put it past the Soviets to expel the Japanese, and set up an Ainu ethnic state, as they basically did with Germany.
 
ramones1986

ramones1986

EternalCynic said:
The border between the Japans resembles the Inner German Border rather than the DMZ: limited, state-approved travel is permitted, though undesired crossing is strictly illegal.
Click to expand...
Because you said that the border between two Japans more resembled the inner-German border, there is a possibility that the signal of NHK (and the major South Japanese commercial networks) is more penetrable in the North Japanese territory.
 
Last edited:

satilisu

Some thoughts:

1) North Japan would definitely be the inferior to South Japan. About two-thirds of Japan and 4/5ths of its economic output lives in a band stretching from Tokyo to outside Nagasaki. The Koreas were roughly equal in terms of GDP in 1950, with the less populous North buoyed by aid from China and the USSR. North Japan would be some leftover Japanese peasants and some Ainus who may/may not get massacred, not an equal contender for the island.

2) It also seems very unlikely that the Soviets, who already were active beyond the armistice to to seize the rest of the Kurils, would reach Tokyo even if the US allowed it. I can't imagine even in the most pro-Soviet scenarios that North Japan gets a border that will give it more than Fukushima and the northern half of Niigata prefecture.

3) The inter-Japanese border (if on Honshu) would be much more mountainous and thus more porous than the inter-German border. Since defections in the Cold War by and large went one way, the uneducated and underfunded peasants of North Japan will have a hell of a time keeping other Japanese in. In a remote mountain watchtower where the secret police supervisors are fewer than they should be, the guards might themselves jump the fence with the tacit encouragement of their Southern counterparts. If North Japan is just Hokkaido, then the border will probably be close to airtight.

4) OTL, defectors to Japan came in by aircraft (like that MiG-25), which can be chased down or shot down as a last resort. Assuming a border on Honshu, what if a Colonel-General with a hankering for blue jeans and hamburgers decides to take a family trip to the brother-republic of the DPRJ?

The OP does state that North Japan survives into the present day. I can only see Hokkaido being a viable option. Its only city of any importance is Sapporo, and it's really a periphery of a periphery from both Soviet and Japanese perspectives. A useful airbase and submarine pen for sure, but I find it very unlikely that it can support itself beyond 1989.
 
Last edited:

King Helü of Wu

Banned
I wrote something, but it's too long to post here. So I posted in a new thread:
https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=288341

The Hokkaido-only occupation is not discussed in that thread, it's below:

[FONT=&quot]If the Japanese could trump up a sham "Manchukuo" despite the absolute minority status of Manchus there, the Soviets could trump up a sham "Ainu People's Republic", with puppet Ainu figureheads and a half Japanese half Russian leadership in charge. Moscow would call the shots, obviously. Such a state would not have a Japanese identity (and behave in an anti-Japanese way in diplomatic scene), but the majority of the population are Japanese and willingly identify themselves as Japanese. Such contradiction would most likely bring down the state by the time Soviet Union fall. [/FONT]
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top
Top