Political consequences of a worse Schweinfurt raid?

  • Thread starter Deleted member 1487
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Deleted member 1487

When the USAAF raiding Schweinfurt both times it took pretty bad damage, the latter time 26% damaged and destroyed. The result was heavy criticism of the conduct of the war in the press and among the public, which had been told to expect 4% casualties. What if the losses have be catastrophic, with 50% or more of the bombers being shot down? What happened politically at this sensitive time in the run up to the 1944 elections?
 
If the summer 1943 raids turn into 50% massacres USAAF will likely switch to night raids (no problem, at day Norden allows you to hit a pickle barrel, at night things will be worse, e.g. you will have to settle with hitting a single building :D).
 
The damage in the Schwienfurt raids was offset by successes elsewhere. The success of the Allied air forces in the Mediterranean and over France and Netherlands provided counter evidence in favor of daylight bombing. The more likely outcome is the same as OTL. That is daylight attacks are confined to targets where escorts are available.

The German fighter groups had already been run off France & Italy, so the USAF bombers could operate there another couple months until the long range escorts were operating in full force. The ball bearing campaign was flown just three months before the 'Big Week' in January 1944 that signaled the defeat of the German AF in its last bastion over Germany. When the 2d Schwienfurt raid was flown 14 October 1943 the VLR P51 groups were already arriving in the UK and their operational advent was just weeks away. Its not like the USAAF faced another 12 months with no solution.
 
If the summer 1943 raids turn into 50% massacres USAAF will likely switch to night raids (no problem, at day Norden allows you to hit a pickle barrel, at night things will be worse, e.g. you will have to settle with hitting a single building :D).

The famed Norden sight was never as accurate in combat conditions over Europe as it was hyped to be beforehand. In reality the 8th and 9th AF wound up conducting an area bombing campaign much as the RAF did - attempted precision bombing of area targets vs area bombing of precision targets.
 
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