Political Consequences of a Failed Sealion

[usertron2020]

Watch out, here comes another sea mammal... But with a twist.

Let's agree that the July 1940 landing would have been a very near run thing, but probably successful for the Germans. Let's also agree that the level of superhuman foresight needed for Hitler to give the go ahead for preparations to begin for a July operation is ASB (The start of Case Yellow?!). So it's September or nothing. Let's agree to say Hitler isn't goaded into changing targets to British cities (borderline ASB, I'll admit). Then a strategic victory over the RAF is enjoyed by the Luftwaffe just soon enough for Sealion to commence. And the result? The 1975 wargame at the British military academy at Sandhurst. Nine divisions across, only seven supplied, and the supply lines across the English Channel eventually severed, thanks to the Royal Navy. The Germans in England run out of supplies and are forced to surrender. Gallipoli with no escape.

What happens next? To the Empire? It's position in the world? Germany's? How does Stalin react? America? Japan?

Opinions?

 

[Grey Wolf]

I'd expect an uprising in France of some kind

I think things depend on a couple of factors
1. What is the state of the British army after victory? Is it capable of anything or does it need desperately to resupply and rebuild?
2. Has all the KM being sunk?
3. ...

Actually, whilst 9 divisions is a lot of men its not going to do that much damage to the ability of Germany to field an army, or presumably clamp down hard on places it rules, and I doubt Britain has the capacity to try to push straight back.

Raeder probably gets shot. Doenitz gets full rein, loads and loads of uboats and coastal boats need to be built.

Politically - I think Hitler can probably blame someone, shoot them, and survive. Who would he blame? Who drew up the plans? Maybe Keitel and Jodl get the axe.

I'd have to do a bit of research, my memory has drained away

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

 

[The Red]

Stalin might start preparing now, seeing as Hitler has failed on the western front, another Sealion isn't going to come any time soon.

 

[Grimm Reaper]

At sea the Kriegsmarine is a wreck. The comment was that in victory or in defeat the German fleet would be reduced to a yachting club for several years. This might force Hitler to actually divert resources to building a new fleet if only to avoid giving the British a free hand at sea.

As to what this means for Japanese planning if the British can field 7-8 battleships and 3-4 carriers in the Pacific in December 1941...


All the shipping lost will be replacedbut it seems likely that 3-4 months of OTL output for armaments in 1941 has been lost. Then there are all the German pilots shot down over the UK rotting in POW camps for the rest of the war, and, far worse, the German troops flown in were in transports flown by the instructors who trained the rest of the German pilots so heavy losses there could set Luftwaffe rebuilding by a substantial degree.


Most important of all is that a second invasion is impossible for years so this means the British can confidently redeploy much larger forces. Assuming they send two thirds of the available forces from January 1941 that would be 20 infantry divisions and 3 armored divisions. I would imagine that neither Italy(in Libya) nor Japan(in Malaya) is going to like that.

 

[NORGCO]

Definitely not our WWII

Ok, so Sealion goes in and nine divisions are lost which is the most obvious cost

The Luftwaffe would presumably have been doing everything humanly possible to air-drop supplies to the trapped forces. What was left of the RAF, operating from bases in the Midlands - which was the plan as I understand it - would leave a much smaller German air transport and bomber fleet when it was over if what happened when Goering used both fleets to supply Stalingrad is anything to go by. They had been invaded, kamikazie tactics would not have been considered unreasonable under the circumstances.

Also the plan was to use Rhine river barges to transport the troops, which with the Royal Navy in good fighting trim - which it apparently was - would mean not getting them back. Whatever losses needed to be taken to close the channel to supply shipping would be justified in this situation, and the German surface fleet was embarassingly outgunned and outnumbered in summer 1940.

So, its heading for Christmas 1940, Hitler's big run of astonishing victories has ended in disasterous failure. His generals are trying to shift the blame to him, he is screaming the house down it is their fault, the Rhine/Rhur industries have lost a lot of their transport capacity and the substitutes are more expensive then River barge. The political cost is worse than the material, since the 9 divisions are not actually irreplaceable but the destruction of the image of the invincible Nazi war machine is.

The Empire: Serious partying in the streets and a renewal of optimism. A big propaganda/diplomatic offensive trying to get neutrals etc to see this as proof The Empire will Strike Back! Lots of pictures of German POW's being led off by courageous Home Guard men, emphasising the young, fit, cream of Nazism defeated by grandfathers with few weapons but lots of British Pluck! Repeat of theme 'they don't stand a chance against our best'.

Italy. Benny the Moose has second thoughts about picking a fight with Britain in North Africa and elsewhere, which will keep him out of trouble and save Hitler having to divert forces to rescue him.

Russia: Stalin and co carefully assessing what all this means in terms of the actual capabilities of the Fascist Menace. Maybe he will feel a bit more willing to play games with Germany's oil supply etc, but nothing dramatic, since the Red Army won't have finished re-equipment and reorganisation till 1942 or so. Still he's probably feeling good about capitalist's killing each other in big numbers while he prepares.

America. - Roosevelt's pro-British stance looks less like tying themselves to a sinking ship which will make it easier for him to continue supporting and supplying them.
- The Marines and Navy will send people to get a first hand account of what went right and wrong for both sides. After all they have been preparing for a war in the Pacific on the assumption that seizing fortified islands for use as air and naval bases will be the Marines dominant duty. Time to compare doctrine derived from peacetime theorising and wargames with an actual example. Expect them to be unimpressed by the German 'a river crossing on a very wide front' level of planning.

Japan. - Second thoughts about joining the axis and attacking British possessions on the way to the Southern Resource area.
- Same type of careful analysis of the failure of the invasion to see if it has any applicable lessons for their war plans.

 

[usertron2020]

At sea the Kriegsmarine is a wreck. The comment was that in victory or in defeat the German fleet would be reduced to a yachting club for several years. This might force Hitler to actually divert resources to building a new fleet if only to avoid giving the British a free hand at sea.

All the shipping lost will be replaced but it seems likely that 3-4 months of OTL output for armaments in 1941 has been lost. Then there are all the German pilots shot down over the UK rotting in POW camps for the rest of the war, and, far worse, the German troops flown in were in transports flown by the instructors who trained the rest of the German pilots so heavy losses there could set Luftwaffe rebuilding by a substantial degree.

Actually, a surprisingly large amount of the Kriegsmarine was either in drydock under repair (following Norway, British air attacks) or on commerce raider patrol. Other than the heavy cruiser Prinz Eugen, and a couple of ancient pre-dreadnoughts (to be used for shore bombardment), they really didn't have much to put in harm's way. Even their destroyer force got creamed in Norway, losing 9 DD's at Narvik alone. This was why I always groan at the Sealion successful TLs. It wasn't just the Royal Navy, or that the German's didn't have one. It was that right at September 1940 you could ask for a date where the Kriegsmarine wasn't weaker. No wonder Raeder was so worried.

The biggest strategic effect for military operations for Germany may be the complete loss of their paratrooper/glider forces. No Crete landings. No threat of an Operation: Hercules. Assuming Italy even invades Greece in such a TL.

 

[zoomar]

This is a more interesting Sea Mammal question than most. I would consider the following possibilities to explore if I were constructing an ATL based on a failed Sealion:

(1) An anti Nazi Coup. Since 1938 the ineffectual anti-nazi conspirators were always waiting for a massive failure in Hitler's foreign/military policies as a pretext for staging a coup. Austria didn't work, Munich didn't work, POland didn't work, the invasion of France and the low countries didn't. But now they have the most damaging mistake of all. Hitler in his arrogance attemped something even Napoleon never tried and it led to the most massive and one-sided military defeat in modern German History, far worse than anything in the Great War. Would this actually end the war or would a semi-denazified Germany continue to fight Britain? Would such a Germany be willing to negotiate away its occupation of France and the low countries in exchange for western neutrality in the event of a war with the USSR?

(2) British responses. Would this victory, with or without a successful anti-Nazi coup in Germany, increase or decrease British resolve to see the war through to a complete victory? How would Britain respond to an armistice offer from beaten Germans?

(3) US Responses. I think it's possible that a clear British victory in Sealion might actually lessen public sentiment in the USA to assist Britain further. To many Americans, Britain had been portrayed as little isolated England - the last free country in Europe - a nation that absolutely needed US assistance and possibly even intervention to survive. A British victory would show that Britain could take care of itself - and might even be seen as the turning point in Britain's favor. I suspect isolationist sentiment in the USA might actually increase now that the German threat is seemingly lessened.

(4) The USSR. Might Stalin steal the jump on Germany and attack himself?

(5) Italy. How would Italy respond to such a disastrous German defeat? Would Mussolini reconsider his alliance with Germany?

(6) Japan and the far east. It is unlikely this would affect Japan's plans significantly, but could the military (and presumably naval) losses suffered by Britain in repulsing the German invasion affect her ability - or even willingness - to respond to Japanese aggression in the far east?

 

[stevep]

Italy. Benny the Moose has second thoughts about picking a fight with Britain in North Africa and elsewhere, which will keep him out of trouble and save Hitler having to divert forces to rescue him.

I think its already a bit late for this. Believe the Italians have already launched their 'attack' into Egypt.

Depending on the degree of fight involved in Britain this might delay Compass a bit. OTL the offensive depended on the armour rushed through the Med once it was certain no invasion was coming. Its now certain no further attack will be coming in the foreseeable future but possibly the armoured units will have seen combat, with losses and disruption.

This is not necessarily a good think for the Italians I suspect. The British may well be a bit later but probably stronger and definitely more experienced. Also, given the disorder in Germany - political as much as military, it could well be that Hitler won't be interested in committing forces to N Africa.

Overall a lot would depend on the actual losses to both sides. As said the 9 divisions are fairly small beer for the Germans but it could include a lot of specialised units, not just the paras. Probably also a lot of engineer units. Even more to the point the air and naval losses could be crucial, both in terms of total losses and again losses of key facilities, such as the Luftwaffe trainers. Coupled with the economic losses.

On the plus side for the Germans it could mean they go for a sub heavy approach earlier while Britain might get overconfident. Or possibly if the problems were to trigger a Soviet attack [although I think this is pretty unlikely] it could led to a badly overstretched Red army getting mauled and largely destroyed before they can get permission to retreat deep into Russia.

However, overall this is I think a good result for Britain. The victory will boost moral and confidence the war can be won and cause the Germans a lot of problems.

The situation in the far east would depend on how the British and Japanese interact. Britain will have more resources available to go east but it might still send insufficient forces to Malaya. However, especially if N Africa could be cleared of Axis forces earlier, Britain would be able to send enough forces to easily defend her key positions in the far east.

The other point here come to think of it would be what happens with Russia. Its likely that Germany is going to be too weakened for even Hitler to think an attack on the SU is viable in 1941. If so then there will be no allied aid to Stalin, which will free up a lot of British shipping and equipment for use elsewhere.

Steve