Polish WI: Gabriel Narutowicz isn't assassinated?

[Vinization]

The first president of interwar Poland, Gabriel Narutowicz was elected with the help of the left and various minorities, much to the anger of the National Democracy and other right-wing movements. He was assassinated by one such right-winger in December 16 1922, after just five days in office.

What if he either survived the attempt on his life or, better yet, makes it out unscathed because the assassin makes a mistake or two? How could Polish politics develop without such a dramatic event right after the country's restoration, and would Pilsudski still launch a coup in May 1926? If not, how could a democratic Poland prepare for the rise of Nazi Germany, assuming it doesn't get butterflied away (which is quite possible with a POD in 1922)?

 

[Vinization]

@Zygmunt Stary @Polish Eagle

 

[Seandineen]

I think he would be a bulwark of democracy and moderation, all of Marshal Plusuki's virtue, without his somewhat otherworldly manner

 

[Vinization]

I think he would be a bulwark of democracy and moderation, all of Marshal Plusuki's virtue, without his somewhat otherworldly manner

Well, parliament would probably still be a squabbling mess, if the results of the 1922 election are any indication, unless Narutowicz somehow convinces the people who elected him to keep working together.

 

[PolishMagnet]

would Pilsudski still launch a coup in May 1926

yep.

If anything, he'll probably launch a coup even sooner

 

[Vinization]

yep.

If anything, he'll probably launch a coup even sooner

Why? Weren't they allies, at least at first? Why did Pilsudski launch his coup anyway, and would the reasons for it still apply here?

 

[PolishMagnet]

Why? Weren't they allies, at least at first? Why did Pilsudski launch his coup anyway, and would the reasons for it still apply here?

Pilsudski hates leftists. He hates socialists. He wants to keep the state Christian, militarised and opportunistic because he thinks everyone is out to get Poland (I mean...he was kind of right).

He launched his coup after his "retirement" when he saw Poland was moving away from the model he laid out. Narutowicz and his party were socialists, and as time went on, it became clear to them that Pilsudski was not their guy.

 

[Vinization]

Pilsudski hates leftists. He hates socialists. He wants to keep the state Christian, militarised and opportunistic because he thinks everyone is out to get Poland (I mean...he was kind of right).

He launched his coup after his "retirement" when he saw Poland was moving away from the model he laid out. Narutowicz and his party were socialists, and as time went on, it became clear to them that Pilsudski was not their guy.

So I did some reading on the Wikipedia article about the May Coup, and I saw something about the government not being able to suppress it in time because the rail workers went on strike, preventing loyal troops from reaching Warsaw. Was there any way something like this could be averted, and the coup defeated?

 

[PolishMagnet]

So I did some reading on the Wikipedia article about the May Coup, and I saw something about the government not being able to suppress it in time because the rail workers went on strike, preventing loyal troops from reaching Warsaw. Was there any way something like this could be averted, and the coup defeated?

Honestly I don't know much about the actual events of the coup, or how it was done. The easiest way to prevent it is having Pilsudski die before 1922 (very possible tbh).

 

[Tizoc]

Pilsudski hates leftists. He hates socialists. He wants to keep the state Christian, militarised and opportunistic because he thinks everyone is out to get Poland (I mean...he was kind of right).

He launched his coup after his "retirement" when he saw Poland was moving away from the model he laid out. Narutowicz and his party were socialists, and as time went on, it became clear to them that Pilsudski was not their guy.

Rather strange for a long-time member of Polish Socialist Party to hate socialists. Pilsudzki may not have been into socialist ideology, but claiming that he was anti-socialist... CITATION NEEDED

Also, IIRC it was Narutowicz' assasination that made Pilsudzki lose faith in Polish democracy of the time - so no, Narutowicz survival won't speed up a possible coup (well, the Pilsudzki led one...).

 

[PolishMagnet]

Rather strange for a long-time member of Polish Socialist Party to hate socialists. Pilsudzki may not have been into socialist ideology, but claiming that he was anti-socialist... CITATION NEEDED

Also, IIRC it was Narutowicz' assasination that made Pilsudzki lose faith in Polish democracy of the time - so no, Narutowicz survival won't speed up a possible coup (well, the Pilsudzki led one...).

He was a socialist in his youth, but he turned away from it towards a paternalistic Christian nationalism. One could argue he imposed working regulations to appease the population, which had become very socialist up until then (Congress Poland was incredibly underdeveloped).

Józef Piłsudski - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

The quote is described as disputed, but it always comes up.

 

[Tizoc]

Yes, but where's the HATE? That quote only shows that Pilsudzki didn't see himself as socialist anymore...

 

[PolishMagnet]

Yes, but where's the HATE? That quote only shows that Pilsudzki didn't see himself as socialist anymore...

He thought Das Kapital was stupid.

W rozmowie z Arturem Śliwińskim w listopadzie 1931 roku na temat swego rozumienia marksizmu mówił:
/ In a conversation with Artur Śliwiński in september 1931, on the topic of his understanding of Marxism, he said:

Starałem się poznać i zgłębić idee socjalizmu. Zacząłem nawet czytać Kapitał
Marksa. Ale gdy spotkałem się z dowodzeniem, że stół równa się surdutowi, czy

też surdutowi równać się może, jeśli chodzi o ilość i wartość pracy, jaką repre-
zentują oba te przedmioty, zamknąłem książkę, gdyż takie ujęcie sprawy wyda-
wało mi się bzdurstwem. Filozofia materialistyczna, której panowanie szybko się

skończyło, a na której podłożu powstała teoria Marksa, nigdy nie trafiała mi do

przekonania. Nie mogłem również pogodzić się z dziwacznym Mutterrechtem En-
gelsa. Do socjalizmu odniosłem się krytycznie i tego krytycyzmu nie pozbyłem

się już nigdy34.

I decided to get to know and understand the idea of socialism. I even started reading Marx's "Kapital". But when I came across the idea that a table is equal to a coat, which is also equal to the value of the labour put into both objects, I closed the book, because such an approach to the matter was, I felt, nonsense. The materialistic philosophy which Marx based his theory on, whose reign ended quickly, was never something I got into. I also couldn't get over the bizarre Mutterecht Engels. I was critical of socialism and never rid myself of that criticism.

Especially once he went further dwn the road of authoritarianism, he began going after his former party, the PPS, and the "Centre Left" coalition.

Everything I've heard about him in Polish media has portrayed him as being vaguely socialist, abandoning it, and turning on it. Socialists don't like him. AFAIK, he didn't like them either.

I've actually found an article about the fake "don't call me tovarish" / "I got off the red tram at independence" quote here but it covers what I've basically said. He split ways and then they both began to see each other as enemies.

I've attached the pdf for the paper I got the Piłsudski quote from. It covers Piłsudski's "adventure" through socialist thought and what exactly his views were. They aptly say in the conclusion:

W niepodległej Polsce Piłsudski odszedł od młodzieńczych ideałów, od ruchu socjalistycznego, z którym był związany przez ponad dwadzieścia lat życia. Rozpoczyna polityczną grę na rzecz realizacji swojej koncepcji rozwoju Polski, często będąc w opozycji do koncepcji socjalistycznych, a po 1926 roku wchodząc drogę autorytaryzmu.

In independent Poland, Pilsudski departed from his youthful ideals and from the socialist movement, with which he had been tied to for more than 20 years of his life. He starts a political game to bring his vision of Poland to fruition, often being in opposition to socialist concepts , and after 1926 starting on the path of authoritarianism.

 

[Polish Eagle]

Narutowicz was, in many respects, not unlike most of the men in the Sanationist government and its successor. Left-leaning, but in general a technocrat; a freemason, and so not particularly palatable to the Polish falangist movement, but actually pretty civil toward the center-right in Poland. I honestly do not think that Pilsudski would have much problem with him (though I haven't reached the later part of my biography of Pilsudski, so I'm honestly going off Wikipedia here, which frequently describes the two as friendly).

As to what broader effect this has on Polish politics, not murdering the President is always a plus. But I think it's worth noting that a lot of the early Presidents were Pilsudski's colleagues; Wojciechowski was his co-founder of the socialist party; Witos was another of his supporters. Ultimately, unless Narutowicz is some kind of political and economic genius who can avoid the instability of the mid-1920s, I think Pilsudski will still return to politics in a coup.

But if Poland does avoid Sanationism...honestly, I'm not sure it would look much nicer than IOTL. Possibly worse, if the National Radical Camp comes to power.

As to Pilsudski's "socialism," in many respects he was just joining up with the most militant anti-Tsarist agitators he knew (remember that the whole reason he ended up in Siberia was remote involvement with Narodnaya Volya, despite his intense dislike of all facets of Muscovite culture)--in his own words, he identified as a socialist purely because, as a schoolboy, he had been asked whether he thought the strong should be able to lord it over the weak, and upon saying no, was told that made him a socialist.

 

[ImperialxWarlord]

So if he doesn’t get killed what long term effects would this have and would it change how Poland faired in WW2?

 

[Vinization]

Ultimately, unless Narutowicz is some kind of political and economic genius who can avoid the instability of the mid-1920s, I think Pilsudski will still return to politics in a coup.

Was there anything he could do to at least mitigate that? It'd be a very tall order, if the composition of the Sejm is any indication.

So if he doesn’t get killed what long term effects would this have and would it change how Poland faired in WW2?

I'm wondering that myself, especially if Poland doesn't become a military dictatorship. Could the border dispute with Czechoslovakia be solved peacefully?

 

[Polish Eagle]

Was there anything he could do to at least mitigate that? It'd be a very tall order, if the composition of the Sejm is any indication.

I'm wondering that myself, especially if Poland doesn't become a military dictatorship. Could the border dispute with Czechoslovakia be solved peacefully?

Re: The Czechoslovak border dispute. Since that was settled militarily by Czechoslovakia while Poland was in an existential fight against the Soviets, there's really no settlement that Poland would be open to unless the Czechs agree to another plebiscite in the area. And I don't think the Czechs will because Benes' attitude toward Poland was pretty much a mirror of the attitude that Pilsudski's colonels held toward Czechoslovakia--that it's an artificial state maintained entirely on French goodwill. A democratic Poland is going to have similar, if weaker, revanchist tendencies on the subject of Zaolzie than the OTL government had, but the Czechoslovak side of the problem also requires big changes.

 

[Seandineen]

I wonder if Poland Czechoslovakia, and Hungary, could form that inner ring of moderate buffers between the Russians and Germans.

 

[PolishMagnet]

I wonder if Poland Czechoslovakia, and Hungary, could form that inner ring of moderate buffers between the Russians and Germans.

No chance. Hungary was uber-revanchist, and I cannot see them in a million years aligning with Czechoslovakia.

 

[Seandineen]

Horthy is a smart man. With No authoritarian Reich, they will need another ally.