Polish-Romanian Alliance activated in September 1939

What if in September 1939, Poland had activated the Polish-Romanian Alliance. As part of that activation, Romanian troops moved into the area of the Romanian Bridgehead to insure a flow of men and materials to the Polish army. This would be done in cooperation with the Polish army.

What impact would this have on the German invasion? Also, would the Soviet Union have still invaded Poland?

If this has already been discussed, please let me know what timelines to look at.

Regards

Stubear1012
 
I'm not sure the Romanians would dare to do much more than OTL, since it would put them on the bad side of both Germany and the USSR. Certainly, Germany had more to offer as a potential ally than Poland. And movements in this direction might only accelerate the OTL Iron Guard coup.
 
A lot depends if the Allies are able to quickly transfer units from the Middle East to south-eastern Poland prior to the Russian entry. If they do, it will complicate Stalin's situation greatly.

I'm not sure the Romanians would dare to do much more than OTL,
Basically, that decision is 100% in the hands of the King, Carol II.

since it would put them on the bad side of both Germany and the USSR. Certainly, Germany had more to offer as a potential ally than Poland.
Soviet intentions were not entirely known at the time (prior to them entering Poland), and France+Britain was still viewed by many, certainly in Romania, to be the stronger military force.


And movements in this direction might only accelerate the OTL Iron Guard coup.
Said coup was only possible after Carol II, after centralizing in his hands anything that could be centralized, gave half the country away without firing a single shot, which sorta had a minor effect on his support among both the population and the institutions.

If there's a war going on, any ATL Iron Guard attempt will likely end like the last one from OTL, namely with a lot of their members hanged in public squares.
 
It all depends on whether the alliance is activated before or after the Russians attack. If afterwards, it's not likely to change anything and therefore the Romanians will probably only help passively.
 
wonder if Germany might stop on Vistula if Romanian intentions known? (original planned dividing line)

launch into Romania with what little help Hungary can provide?
 
launch into Romania with what little help Hungary can provide?

If Germany goes for a full-blown Romanian campaign in autumn-winter of 1939, then given the distance they will have to travel over dirt roads through rains and mud and snow and freezing temperatures will ensure that the panzerwaffe will suffer greatly from wear and tear, even if the Romanians don't fire a single shot, enough to kill any chance of successfully driving through France 2-3 months later.

But the Romanians will fight back, and their entry into south-eastern Poland (aka Romanian bridgehead) ahead of the Russians will give a pretty good chance to a lot of Polish units to escape and regroup. Romania's access to the Black Sea will also give the Allies the means to send supplies and reinforcements over, further complicating Germany's plans. Not to mention the fact that Germany was incredibly low on ammunition after smashing Poland and needed time to restock (one of the main arguments that got Hitler to postpone his attack on France until the next year)

There's no question about the fact that a determined German push will eventually overwhelm Romania, although the whole thing could drag on as late as April 1940 given the weather and terrain. However, such an endeavor will come at a cost, and that cost will be defeat in France.
 
And movements in this direction might only accelerate the OTL Iron Guard coup.

The Iron Guard was not unconditionally pro-German. In OTL, they wanted to refuse the Second Vienna Award and fight Hungary and Germany. As soon as Hungary gets involved in this scenario, the Iron Guard will fall in line behind the royal government. They will probably be neither able nor willing to carry out any coups.
 
The Iron Guard was not unconditionally pro-German. In OTL, they wanted to refuse the Second Vienna Award and fight Hungary and Germany. As soon as Hungary gets involved in this scenario, the Iron Guard will fall in line behind the royal government. They will probably be neither able nor willing to carry out any coups.

Well, my logic here is that if Stalin would invade Poland anyways, at which point Hitler may just offer him Bessarabia and North Bukovina to give Stalin a stake in helping him put down the Romanians. At that point, Romania would be facing two foreign invaders, and it would be pretty clear by then that British/French help isn't forthcoming. If the Iron Guard's breakthrough IOTL concerned the King giving up territory without a fight, I just figured his provoking Romania's neighbors into attacking it might have a similar effect. Desperate measures being necessary to save the country from being partitioned, and all that.
 
Well, my logic here is that if Stalin would invade Poland anyways, at which point Hitler may just offer him Bessarabia and North Bukovina to give Stalin a stake in helping him put down the Romanians. At that point, Romania would be facing two foreign invaders, and it would be pretty clear by then that British/French help isn't forthcoming. If the Iron Guard's breakthrough IOTL concerned the King giving up territory without a fight, I just figured his provoking Romania's neighbors into attacking it might have a similar effect. Desperate measures being necessary to save the country from being partitioned, and all that.

There's a logic to that, but I'm not sure it will be seen that way. If Hungary (and the USSR) has gotten involved, then Romania's future in Axis-dominated Europe is extremely bleak, coup or no coup. At that point, it may be seen as the only viable choice for Romania to throw its lot in fully with the Allies and hope for the best. But I guess that's a matter of different interpretation rather than outright disagreement.
 
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