Polish Monarchs in the German Empire!

The other day I was working on a Central Powers map - because I have no life:D - and the thought came to me: what if, after WWI, a victorious Germany in addition to the pressure brought to bear by the Socialists for Constitutional Reform, the Poles living in the eastern parts of Germany began to clamor for greater representation?

In OTL, the Prussian Province of Posen was originally the Grand Duchy of Poznan. I thought: might it not be possible for the Emperor to reconstitute the Grand Duchy to appease some of the ethnic discontent? Wilhelm II would absolutely NEVER do this, so let's say he dies by 1922 at the latest. Wilhelm III was definitely a more sensitive soul - he was genuinely appalled by the Verdun Campaign and strategy of trying to murder the French army. So, perhaps he offers some Imperial condescension.

Were there any Polish nobles that might be considered for the Grand Ducal throne? Other possibilities I suppose would be Habsburg cadets: the sons of Franz Ferdinand are floating around somewhere.
 
Are you assuming that the Polish state promised by the CP's does not come into existence, or that it is transformed into this instead? The main problem I see with that is that they were going to use Congress Poland rather than any actual German territory. The initial candidate for the throne was the Habsburg Duke of Teschen.

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
I know that Karl Stefan was slated to be installed as King of Poland, yet the Germans continued to defer the matter, using it as a carrot and stick approach to keep the Austrian Empire in the War. At least from what I have read, Berlin vacillated between the Habsburgs and the Wettins (the Saxon Royal House, who also had claims on Poland).

In any case, I am thinking in particular of those Polish people who are already subjects of Germany within the Kingdom of Prussia: I think there would need to be a tremendous upheaval of the establishment for the Government in Berlin to say goodbye to any part of their eastern provinces or borders. With that in mind I was wondering about the possibility of re establishing the GD of Posen, keeping in mind the promised 'kingdom' of Poland.

Note: from what I have read of the German plans for that State, it was always envisaged that it would merely be a vassal and source of raw materials and cheap labor with little actual self government, leaving aside the more hysterical (later) Polish assertions that Germany wanted to culturally annihilate Poland and kill off millions of Poles through a famine.
 
I know that Karl Stefan was slated to be installed as King of Poland, yet the Germans continued to defer the matter, using it as a carrot and stick approach to keep the Austrian Empire in the War. At least from what I have read, Berlin vacillated between the Habsburgs and the Wettins (the Saxon Royal House, who also had claims on Poland).

In any case, I am thinking in particular of those Polish people who are already subjects of Germany within the Kingdom of Prussia: I think there would need to be a tremendous upheaval of the establishment for the Government in Berlin to say goodbye to any part of their eastern provinces or borders. With that in mind I was wondering about the possibility of re establishing the GD of Posen, keeping in mind the promised 'kingdom' of Poland.

Note: from what I have read of the German plans for that State, it was always envisaged that it would merely be a vassal and source of raw materials and cheap labor with little actual self government, leaving aside the more hysterical (later) Polish assertions that Germany wanted to culturally annihilate Poland and kill off millions of Poles through a famine.

Aside from the problem that victorious Germany likely wouldn't be that benevolent to its own minorities, the problem is that Prussia would have to give up territory for a new state under a different ruling house. Where's the benefit for Prussia or the Hohenzollern?

Aside from stability and possibly happier Poles, of course...:rolleyes:

As long as the monarchs have a saying, territorial reform - even though it would be reasonable - won't happen.
 
Aside from the problem that victorious Germany likely wouldn't be that benevolent to its own minorities, the problem is that Prussia would have to give up territory for a new state under a different ruling house. Where's the benefit for Prussia or the Hohenzollern?

Aside from stability and possibly happier Poles, of course...:rolleyes:

As long as the monarchs have a saying, territorial reform - even though it would be reasonable - won't happen.

Yeah, for my TL, in order to get Posen (minus the German bits) in Poland I had to construct a situation where Germany finds herself undercut by an Austria that feels ignored and so faces either giving Posen to Poland to get some control back over the country, or the possibility of an angry, revanchist Poland that they have no ties to. It's also a stalemate peace.
 
Aside from stability and possibly happier Poles, of course...:rolleyes:

As long as the monarchs have a saying, territorial reform - even though it would be reasonable - won't happen.[/QUOTE]

Even in a situation where the domestic scene is in near chaos? Even in a late - victory scenario, I don't see automatic peace, prosperity, and happiness for the German Empire. What I could easily see happen is a lot of pissed off socialists if the Emperor and the High Command do not make immediate concessions. Remember, their support was essential for the German war effort, and Constitutional reform will be the expected dividend.

Towards the end of the War, Germany experienced a political crisis that would not be easily solved even with a victory. To my mind, it is not totally beyond the pale to suspect OTL street battles with socialists and communists on the one hand and veterans on the other. Wilhelm II and Luddendorf would, I think, fight tooth and nail to maintain the 1914 social order - even though four years of war has destroyed this.

What may eventually happen - again, to my mind, anyway - is that Wilhelm II might be forced to abdicate if he cannot accomodate himself to the force of change shaping Berlin and the rest of the Reich. With his father out of the picture, is it not possible that in addition to giving the Socialists at least some political favors, Wilhelm III also restores the Grand Duchy? Perhaps it ends up being kept in personal union with Prussia (as was one of the plans for the Baltic Duchy)
 
Dunno, given how much effort was spend in 19th century trying to Germanize Poznan, such a sudden change in policy seems unlikely. Looking at some of the turn-of-the century maps, you even get the feeling that Upper Silesia and Masuria where more Polish than Poznan back then.
I also seriously doubt that local Polish population would be really satisfied with autonomy - in late 19th century vehemently anti-German National Democrats replaced the more moderate and conciliatory conservative aristocratic faction as a dominant political force then.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
Yeah, for my TL, in order to get Posen (minus the German bits) in Poland I had to construct a situation where Germany finds herself undercut by an Austria that feels ignored and so faces either giving Posen to Poland to get some control back over the country, or the possibility of an angry, revanchist Poland that they have no ties to. It's also a stalemate peace.

In my TL, I reach the conclusion that in order to get the Hapsburg on the new throne of Poland, both A-H and the new King of Poland had to agree that Posen would remain in Germany and the Krakow area would remain in A-H. Germany is not giving up Posen in a win, nor is Prussia creating a new Duke of Posen.

If you want a autonomous Duchy of Posen, it would have to be in a negotiated peace. So for example, Handwavium, in mid 1916, all major powers decide to make peace. Russia agrees to create a 3rd crown of the Tsar (Congress of Poland) and that Kaiser agrees to the Duchy of Posen. The Tsar also agrees that Russia shall have no Polish units nor forces in Poland. And make Lithuania the 4th Tsar Kingdom, so Germany and Russia don't share a border. So the Congress of Poland is now neutral like Belgium, but the Tsar retains at least limited symbolic control. It is not this is terribly realistic. I am more trying to point out that Prussia would have to get something for the lost lands, and it would have to be a cold peace or a German loss resulting an negotiated peace.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
Even in a situation where the domestic scene is in near chaos? Even in a late - victory scenario, I don't see automatic peace, prosperity, and happiness for the German Empire. What I could easily see happen is a lot of pissed off socialists if the Emperor and the High Command do not make immediate concessions. Remember, their support was essential for the German war effort, and Constitutional reform will be the expected dividend.

Towards the end of the War, Germany experienced a political crisis that would not be easily solved even with a victory. To my mind, it is not totally beyond the pale to suspect OTL street battles with socialists and communists on the one hand and veterans on the other. Wilhelm II and Luddendorf would, I think, fight tooth and nail to maintain the 1914 social order - even though four years of war has destroyed this.

What may eventually happen - again, to my mind, anyway - is that Wilhelm II might be forced to abdicate if he cannot accomodate himself to the force of change shaping Berlin and the rest of the Reich. With his father out of the picture, is it not possible that in addition to giving the Socialists at least some political favors, Wilhelm III also restores the Grand Duchy? Perhaps it ends up being kept in personal union with Prussia (as was one of the plans for the Baltic Duchy)

The reichstag will want control of the chancellery and Prussian electoral reform far more than the symbolic Kingdom of Posen. Even fairly late in the war, Germany was thinking of the Polish borders strip, so a Posen is a bridge too far. Now in a loss or cold peace, sure, it could happen.
 

Adler

Banned
The most like person in such a Grand Duchy would be Fürst Ferdinand von Radziwill: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ferdynand_Radziwiłł

To be honest, though, there would be the need of such a step. And I can't see this step, unless it is forced. Perhaps when Poland becomes an ally of Germany- or, much more likely, an enemy, so that the German Poles were bound more to Germany.

Adler
 
Only chance it may happen-Russia start playing polish card against Germany, autonomy of Congress Poland is restored ( no January uprisnig could be good POD)., to counterbalance russian influence on prussian Poles, Prussia do the same in Posen.
 
In my TL, I reach the conclusion that in order to get the Hapsburg on the new throne of Poland, both A-H and the new King of Poland had to agree that Posen would remain in Germany and the Krakow area would remain in A-H. Germany is not giving up Posen in a win, nor is Prussia creating a new Duke of Posen.

If you want a autonomous Duchy of Posen, it would have to be in a negotiated peace. So for example, Handwavium, in mid 1916, all major powers decide to make peace. Russia agrees to create a 3rd crown of the Tsar (Congress of Poland) and that Kaiser agrees to the Duchy of Posen. The Tsar also agrees that Russia shall have no Polish units nor forces in Poland. And make Lithuania the 4th Tsar Kingdom, so Germany and Russia don't share a border. So the Congress of Poland is now neutral like Belgium, but the Tsar retains at least limited symbolic control. It is not this is terribly realistic. I am more trying to point out that Prussia would have to get something for the lost lands, and it would have to be a cold peace or a German loss resulting an negotiated peace.

Essentially I went for a stalemate and late negotiated peace with German gains in the east swapped for a plebiscite on A-L (heavily rigged by both sides leading to a rougth split of Alsace to Germany and Lorraine to France) and the colonies. A-H is starting to get unsteady, the Hungarians are making noises and as Germany is still planning to create a nominally independent Kingdom of Poland, it basically becomes 'if we want to be an equal partner, we need to take the first step'. Essentially Austrian occupied Poland gets fastracked to 'Austrian influenced Kingdom of Poland', 'selling' Krakow for strong influence and unloading one minority to make things more managable. Berlin at first attempts to call the bluff, then sees her own puppet government getting out of control, then is forced to backpedal wildly to even maintain parity within Poland due to fears of Austrian collapse=completely independent Poland. It was either that or just annex the entire lot and most people in charge didn't want that many Poles.

When Posen does get sold for influence though, it's not the whole Province, losing Bromberg and large parts of the North and West.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
Essentially I went for a stalemate and late negotiated peace with German gains in the east swapped for a plebiscite on A-L (heavily rigged by both sides leading to a rougth split of Alsace to Germany and Lorraine to France) and the colonies. A-H is starting to get unsteady, the Hungarians are making noises and as Germany is still planning to create a nominally independent Kingdom of Poland, it basically becomes 'if we want to be an equal partner, we need to take the first step'. Essentially Austrian occupied Poland gets fastracked to 'Austrian influenced Kingdom of Poland', 'selling' Krakow for strong influence and unloading one minority to make things more managable. Berlin at first attempts to call the bluff, then sees her own puppet government getting out of control, then is forced to backpedal wildly to even maintain parity within Poland due to fears of Austrian collapse=completely independent Poland. It was either that or just annex the entire lot and most people in charge didn't want that many Poles.

When Posen does get sold for influence though, it's not the whole Province, losing Bromberg and large parts of the North and West.

I can see that working.

A lot of the issue of Poland relates to having to sideline the Kaiser and a large portion of the Prussian General staff, and get more moderates influencing the decision.

My was just a series of butterflies, I did not care that much about Poland either way. The UK used the Gallipoli forces in Belgium, so the Germans need to send about 1 full extra army west (12-16 divisions) in late 1915. Italy also did not enter the war, so the A-H had about an extra army available by this time frame. So Poland became garrisonned by A-H, and a decided Austria was calling the shots. It is a bit odd, but in my TL, Germany is the weakest link in 1915 because everyone does a Germany first strategy. Then I had to look at how the Kaiser would react to Austria-Hungary plan for Posen and Western Galicia to become a part of Poland. With the Central Powers winning, I decided their was no realistic way to give up part of Posen. Too much pride, too many had died, too many internal German issues. If Posen was 100% Polish it would be one thing, but a roughly 50/50 split area is another.

It is from the analysis of the positions of the parties that I concluded Posen has to stay in German, basically unchanged, in a CP win. In a loss, it can be given up, and to some extent IOTL, the Germans had accepted it would be lost. But you have to both have a loss and have the Prussian generals discredited. A negotiated peace is a bit different, because if the concessions are right, Prussia might deal, especially if it is only some degree of autonomy. Many things become more important than the new Duke of Posen - France's industrial regions, the return of colonies, just getting a deal done, Belgium.
 
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