Polish-Lithuanian Uprising during the Crimean War

[Polish Eagle]

What if the Poles and Lithuanians under Russian rule rose up against the Tsar during the Crimean War, and gained the support of the British and French in doing so? Could this have opened the way to an expanded Baltic Theater of the war, with British and French ships and even troops supporting the rebellion? Could the Russian defeat have been more complete, and a restored Polish Kingdom or Republic set up in the part occupied by Russia?

Or would this have drawn Prussia and Austria-Hungary into the war on Russia's side?

 

[RGB]

Good question. Russia had a lot of troops in reserve mostly facing the Austrians, so they'd be able to respond, but at the cost of weakening their position somewhere. Would Austria be interested in taking advantage of that? Dunno.

 

[Axeman]

The thing about any Polish rebellion (and to a lesser extent Lithuanian Rebellion) was that both Prussia and Austria had no desire to see a resurgence of any Polish state.

 

[profxyz]

What if the Poles and Lithuanians under Russian rule rose up against the Tsar during the Crimean War, and gained the support of the British and French in doing so?

I doubt the British and French would have supported the Polish Rebellion beyond words, because that would definitely drive Prussia (which was already turning a blind eye to Russian arms imports) and maybe Austria into Russian arms. Besides, how are the British and French going to secure even an autonomous Congress Poland without attempting to defeat the bulk of the Russian army (which they absolutely had no desire to do)?

If the British and French want to liberate the Poles, they are going to have to do much more than sink the Black Sea Fleet and threaten to set fire to St. Petersburg.

 

[TFSmith121]

The British didn't have any troops to spare and

What if the Poles and Lithuanians under Russian rule rose up against the Tsar during the Crimean War, and gained the support of the British and French in doing so? Could this have opened the way to an expanded Baltic Theater of the war, with British and French ships and even troops supporting the rebellion? Could the Russian defeat have been more complete, and a restored Polish Kingdom or Republic set up in the part occupied by Russia?

Or would this have drawn Prussia and Austria-Hungary into the war on Russia's side?

The British didn't have any troops to spare and the French had all of one infantry division for the Baltic Campaign; there's a reason the only Allied army smaller than the British force in the Black Sea were the Sardinians.

Best,

 

[Circonflexe]

What if the Poles and Lithuanians under Russian rule rose up against the Tsar during the Crimean War, and gained the support of the British and French in doing so? Could this have opened the way to an expanded Baltic Theater of the war, with British and French ships and even troops supporting the rebellion? Could the Russian defeat have been more complete, and a restored Polish Kingdom or Republic set up in the part occupied by Russia?

Or would this have drawn Prussia and Austria-Hungary into the war on Russia's side?

If this prompts an Austro-Hungarian reaction, then it would likely be on the Allied side, not the Russian one... (Polish Galicia was Austrian at the time, the Habsburgs toying with being proclaimed Kings of Poland, and the Poles being much better treated in Austrian Poland than in the Prussian or Russian parts. Moreover, Austria has everything to win from an intervention and everything to lose by letting the Russians control the mouth of the Danube!). However, it would be likely that Prussia would do everything it could (probably short of actual war) to prevent such an Austrian intervention, not wanting to encourage unrest in its own share of Poland.

 

[Dathi THorfinnsson]

Sweden was wavering on whether to come in on the Allied side, IIRC.

I could see a P-L revolt being an excuse for them to join in. Possibly Sweden uses the distraction of the revolt to seize Latvia and Estonia, say, while aiding the Poles and Lithuanians to their freedom.

Maybe?