Polish-Lithuanian union in 1919

I have recently found out that Poland attempted to launch a coup in Lithuania in 1919 but failed once this plot was uncovered and enough of this plot's activists were arrested:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1919_Polish_coup_d'état_attempt_in_Lithuania

Anyway, what if this coup attempt would have succeeded and Poland would have thus unified with Lithuania in 1919?
History rejoins OTL come September 1939. Such a union will not be strong enough to defend against Germany and the USSR, does nothing to butterfly either, and strife with Lithuanians in rebellion against the Polish only strengthens the Russian and German propaganda that the Poles are "bad" (along with Russian and Hollywood promotion of "Polish jokes"). In reality it could actually HELP Hitler, in that Soviet and German dismemberment of what they would inevitably label as the "evil Polish Empire" could cause France and Britain to look the other way as they did with much more democratic and peaceful Czechoslovakia. We might see the "Phony War" period just not even be declared war on paper even. Suddenly Germany has more breathing and who knows what Hitler does with that time.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
First of all, how does Poland develop in the interwar period in this TL?

History rejoins OTL come September 1939. Such a union will not be strong enough to defend against Germany and the USSR, does nothing to butterfly either, and strife with Lithuanians in rebellion against the Polish only strengthens the Russian and German propaganda that the Poles are "bad" (along with Russian and Hollywood promotion of "Polish jokes"). In reality it could actually HELP Hitler, in that Soviet and German dismemberment of what they would inevitably label as the "evil Polish Empire" could cause France and Britain to look the other way as they did with much more democratic and peaceful Czechoslovakia. We might see the "Phony War" period just not even be declared war on paper even.

Agreed that Britain and France might not guarantee Poland in this TL if Poland has a negative reputation in this TL as a result of its empire-building. However, this could cause Poland to seek an accommodation with Hitler--which might very well mean a joint Nazi-Polish attack on the Soviet Union.

Suddenly Germany has more breathing and who knows what Hitler does with that time.

Invade the Soviet Union a year earlier?
 
I have recently found out that Poland attempted to launch a coup in Lithuania in 1919 but failed once this plot was uncovered and enough of this plot's activists were arrested:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1919_Polish_coup_d'état_attempt_in_Lithuania

Anyway, what if this coup attempt would have succeeded and Poland would have thus unified with Lithuania in 1919?
Not a chance. I could go on explaining why the POW coup attempt couldn't have been successful, and even if they somehow overthrew the government, they would have been kicked out immediately, but I think the Wikipedia page does a good job at explaining that for me:

The planned coup was criticized by historians as unrealistic for the following reasons. Piłsudski's plan was based on false assumptions and faulty intelligence, which incorrectly indicated that the Sleževičius government was deeply unpopular, and that the general Lithuanian population was relatively friendly to Poland.[33] No notable ethnic Lithuanian politicians declared support for the plan; the plan relied on support from General Žukauskas, but his support was never confirmed (adding to this myself, I'd say that his support was impossible, he was a Lithuanian nationalist and even supported the 1926 nationalist coup); Narutowicz, who was to head the civilian government, was a Pole; the PMO was weak and incapable of taking control if the coup met any significant resistance; and intervention of the Polish army would have led to bloodshed and undermined the idea of a voluntary union or alliance with Poland.[20] The only group that supported the coup was the Polish minority in Lithuania, increasingly alienated by Lithuanian government policies.[34] However, according to the Lithuanian census of 1923, the minority constituted 3.2% of the population outside the Vilnius Region.[35] On the ground, the uprising was doomed by poor communication and the overeagerness of some of the PMO activists.

There are possible ways how to create Poland-Lithuania after WW1, but this ain't one of them, and you likely need a lot earlier POD to accomplish that.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Not a chance. I could go on explaining why the POW coup attempt couldn't have been successful, and even if they somehow overthrew the government, they would have been kicked out immediately, but I think the Wikipedia page does a good job at explaining that for me:

There are possible ways how to create Poland-Lithuania after WW1, but this ain't one of them, and you likely need a lot earlier POD to accomplish that.
Thanks for pointing out all of this information, Augenis! :)

Also, I presume that a Polish conquest of Lithuania would be unrealistic since the Western Powers would condemn it as a violation of national self-determination and thus refuse to support Poland, correct?

In addition to this, could Poland try launching a land grab and annexing some (additional) areas of Lithuania with a large ethnic Polish population? :

49ffdb5548399cccd36aad894f32cb0e.jpg
 
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Yeah, I researched the topic some years ago and the idea of union without military conquest was not going to happen. That being said, the military option is entirelly doable provided Poland is not distracted elsewhere, which it would be in all likelihood.

Still, aside from Vilnius there aren't that much lands it would be beneficial for Poland to take. Poland can take and hold Kaunas, but Kaunas by itself doesn't offer much.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Yeah, I researched the topic some years ago and the idea of union without military conquest was not going to happen. That being said, the military option is entirelly doable provided Poland is not distracted elsewhere, which it would be in all likelihood.

As per my post above, the military option might be problematic for Poland because it might very well cost it its Western allies. Indeed, Poland almost certainly wouldn't want to lose favor in the West considering that it is located in between a hostile Germany and a hostile Soviet Union.

Still, aside from Vilnius there aren't that much lands it would be beneficial for Poland to take. Poland can take and hold Kaunas, but Kaunas by itself doesn't offer much.

If Lithuania already hates you, though, why not maximize the number of ethnic Poles under your rule?
 
Thanks for pointing out all of this information, Augenis! :)

Also, I presume that a Polish conquest of Lithuania would be unrealistic since the Western Powers would condemn it as a violation of national self-determination and thus refuse to support Poland, correct?

In addition to this, could Poland try launching a land grab and annexing some (additional) areas of Lithuania with a large ethnic Polish population? :

49ffdb5548399cccd36aad894f32cb0e.jpg
The problem is that the majority of Poles outside of Vilnius Region that you see in this map fled Lithuania during the period of 1919-1921. After the Independence Wars, the 1923 census only counted a 3% Polish minority in Lithuania (excluding Vilnius Region, of course). As such, Poland would lack an ethnic Polish backbone to rule with.

Not to mention that most Poles in Lithuania (outside of Vilnius Region) were either aristocrats or middle class, so even if they didn't flee, they would make for a poor backbone for Polish rule, because you'd still have a near-absolute majority of peasants and lower middle class who are ethnic patriotic Lithuanians. That's not counting the fact that a large percent of Polish-speaking people in Lithuania, especially aristocrats, considered themselves Lithuanian, just Polish-speaking (like the Krajovci movement), and some were even opposed to joining forces with Poland.

As I said, it is possible to make Poland-Lithuania a thing, but you need an earlier POD. At most, you need to somehow destroy the Lithuanian National Revival and attach Lithuanian national identity to Polish language, but that was hardly possible under the Russian Empire, which passively promoted the Lithuanian nationalists to weaken Poland.
 
Indeed, Poland almost certainly wouldn't want to lose favor in the West considering that it is located in between a hostile Germany and a hostile Soviet Union.
True, but Poland was willing to risk taking Vilnius/Central Lithuania, so if the assault doesn't shatter Lithuania entirelly and Poland isn't forced to spend it's diplomatic influence elsewhere I think it's doable.
If Lithuania already hates you, though, why not maximize the number of ethnic Poles under your rule?
Well, if the land you're taking has more Lithuanians than Poles on it then the majority is being diluted.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
The problem is that the majority of Poles outside of Vilnius Region that you see in this map fled Lithuania during the period of 1919-1921. After the Independence Wars, the 1923 census only counted a 3% Polish minority in Lithuania (excluding Vilnius Region, of course). As such, Poland would lack an ethnic Polish backbone to rule with.

Not to mention that most Poles in Lithuania (outside of Vilnius Region) were either aristocrats or middle class, so even if they didn't flee, they would make for a poor backbone for Polish rule, because you'd still have a near-absolute majority of peasants and lower middle class who are ethnic patriotic Lithuanians. That's not counting the fact that a large percent of Polish-speaking people in Lithuania, especially aristocrats, considered themselves Lithuanian, just Polish-speaking (like the Krajovci movement), and some were even opposed to joining forces with Poland.

As I said, it is possible to make Poland-Lithuania a thing, but you need an earlier POD. At most, you need to somehow destroy the Lithuanian National Revival and attach Lithuanian national identity to Polish language, but that was hardly possible under the Russian Empire, which passively promoted the Lithuanian nationalists to weaken Poland.
OK; understood.

Also, could Poland-Lithuania have become a thing had Germany won WWI and then decided, for whatever reason, to create one kingdom out of Poland and Lithuania?

True, but Poland was willing to risk taking Vilnius/Central Lithuania, so if the assault doesn't shatter Lithuania entirelly and Poland isn't forced to spend it's diplomatic influence elsewhere I think it's doable.

Perhaps; however, one still has to deal with Augenis's points above.

Well, if the land you're taking has more Lithuanians than Poles on it then the majority is being diluted.

Well, yeah--the Polish majority in Poland will certainly get smaller percentage-wise.
 
In reality it could actually HELP Hitler, in that Soviet and German dismemberment of what they would inevitably label as the "evil Polish Empire" could cause France and Britain to look the other way as they did with much more democratic and peaceful Czechoslovakia.

I very much doubt it - the British already thought very poorly of the Poles in the immediate aftermath of WW1 and only really changed their opinion when the German threat became clear after the destruction of Czechoslovakia. The French, while having a more positive view of Poland, never wanted to be dragged into Poland's wars even as they hoped to forge enough of a relationship that Poland might be dragged into a new Franco-German war (and over the course of the 1930s they progressively lost interest even in that). The West simply didn't care about Poland very much.

Indeed, Poland almost certainly wouldn't want to lose favor in the West considering that it is located in between a hostile Germany and a hostile Soviet Union.

But Britain and France (for understandable reasons) didn't favour Poland because the Soviets and Germans were hostile. The fragility of the Polish state while directly bordered by two hostile great powers with a history of partitioning Poland gave both Western powers pause and the British foreign office tended to view Poland (like Lithuania and the other Baltic states) as a temporary aberration that would inevitably be annihilated by the recovery of German and Russian power. Being weak was a greater cause for foreign powers to give Poland the cold shoulder than being unpleasant was.

Certainly what the Poles were doing to the Ukrainians did not impede the Anglo-French guarantee in OTL, though Polish treatment of Ukraine and Ukrainians made all the major Western governments unhappy (though the self-proclaimed champions of the Ukrainians such as the OUN were a very long way from innocent parties in that sad story, the Poles caught more flack because they defeated the Ukrainians in the independence wars).

I don't see why people would be more upset by Poland invading and conquering Lithuania in 1919 than they were by anything else that was happening in Eastern Europe at the time. Nor are the Western powers going to be able to influence what was happening unless they are willing to commit troops on the ground.

I do think this would have more repercussions than people seem to think on history beyond 1945.

For a start, as noted, the coup can't succeed on its own, the Poles would need to send Polish troops to back up their coup. Where do these troops come from? Does this weaken the Polish fight against the Ukrainians (too late I think) or the Bolsheviks (much more likely)? Does this mean that the Soviets win the Polish-Soviet war? And are the Soviets then greeted as liberators of Lithuania?

What if Poland remains independent, but the Bolsheviks manage to hold onto a Lithuania when they finally make peace with Poland?

Or what if Poland survives and history outside Poland follows a similar path, meaning that Lithuania is liberated by either the Soviets or the Nazis when the pair partition Poland-Lithuania between them? That could lead to some different historical perspectives.

fasquardon
 

Deleted member 9338

I was thinking the Union could butterfly away the crises over the Polish Corridor
 
Corridor was not random strip of land given to Poland to provide it with seacoast. If Poland ITTL was able to take Lithuania it surely get Corridor first.
well maybe they do and maybe they don't. but even if they do get the corridor, doesn't mean it sticks, especially danizg, obviously the rurual areas are more polish, but the city was german.

also I think memel was still mainly german as well. a greater Poland/Lithuania would be good for stability in the region and for the areas of Belarus. however its all for naught unless this somehow butterflys away hitler or the soviet union. a united Poland Lithuania can not fight both at the same time.

last issue is that by this time Poland will be the senior member of this union, this might not make the orthodox balts and slavs all too happy.

have the union and then they defeat the soviets and gain more of Belarusian lands as buffer territory would be helpful, but alas again their isn't much in the way of natural obstacles to stop anyone from invading.
 
No. It was given to Poland because German census from 1910 showed Polish speaking majority there. For the same reason city of Danzig, which was circa 90% German was not given to Poland.
One can argue against that point regarding what a majority is, majority over majority of the land? No. Absolute majority (over 50% of the population of the entire corridor)? Yes, about 528,000 Poles to 385,000 Germans (1910). The real reason, as first established by President Wilson in his 14 points, in which the 13th point states Poland "should be assured a free and secure access to the sea" and worded in a way that seems to imply that regardless of Polish majority lands, Poland is getting a corridor to the sea and Danzig isn't going to be Germany's.
 

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