Polish Eagle Over Moscow: Poland Joins Operation Barbarossa ATL

CalBear

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Okay, time for a gentle nudge.

This T/L is NOT ASB. It is low probability, maybe even very low probability, but it is NOT something that requires divine intervention.

If you have made comments and those comments have been acknowledged, but the author chooses to continue his vision of the events, please do not continue to hammer on the point(s). Either continue reading with a suspension of disbelief on the element(s) that you dislike, or walk away from the thread if it isn't shaping up to your hopes. Sort of like a book, don't like it anymore, leave it on the shelf.
 
Okay, time for a gentle nudge.

This T/L is NOT ASB. It is low probability, maybe even very low probability, but it is NOT something that requires divine intervention.

If you have made comments and those comments have been acknowledged, but the author chooses to continue his vision of the events, please do not continue to hammer on the point(s). Either continue reading with a suspension of disbelief on the element(s) that you dislike, or walk away from the thread if it isn't shaping up to your hopes. Sort of like a book, don't like it anymore, leave it on the shelf.

+1

If you don't like someone else's timeline ObsessedNuker, make your points and remain quiet. It's not necessary to try to shove down your historical perspective down the OP's throat in his TL.
 

Deleted member 1487

+1

If you don't like someone else's timeline ObsessedNuker, make your points and remain quiet. It's not necessary to try to shove down your historical perspective down the OP's throat in his TL.
Juan are you also on Axis History Forum?
 
there were some PRETTY low probability events before and during WWII?

my scenario is always that Germany does not invade Poland so was reading this TL with interest.

(although, IMO, Poland would have behaved more like Finland than Slovak Republic or Romania, is there such a term as "fleet-in-being" for a country?)
 
Moscow is a flooded and wrecked city,right?

Then the logistical, transportation, communication and rail hub that was Moscow will only slow down Stalin's attempt at launching his surviving armed forces against the Wehrmacht until Moscow is de-flooded and the rail system is rebuilt ...
 
Moscow is a flooded and wrecked city,right?

Then the logistical, transportation, communication and rail hub that was Moscow will only slow down Stalin's attempt at launching his surviving armed forces against the Wehrmacht until Moscow is de-flooded and the rail system is rebuilt ...

More likely it is bypassed further East. However, Russia's economy has taken a huge hit. I really wonder withut the ability to move reserves around and industrial goods, how do they hold out in the Caucusus? Perhaps Murmanks holds out and the Russians are still a good deal west of the Urals, but not by much.

We do need a realistic estimate of Axis losses in the campaign. Though Barca speculates that fuel expended is roughly similar to Poland OTL (let's say it is worse, but OTL Germany wanted to attack France in Nov 1939 so they must have had some gas left in the tank), this would mean that losses probably would not be debilitating given the ATL collapse of the Red Army.

The German Luftwaffe by default would have taken a hit (the Red airforce is still better than the Polish airforce of OTL) so France is not going to be an easy nut to crack. However, with Russia defeated and Ukraine in the mix, the blockade is less damaging.

However, I do not see how the Germans have the fuel to attack France and press claims in the Caucasus simultaneously. Just how many men do the Germans have to leave in Russia to garrison anyhow? 1 million like in 1918? If so, they can attack France but they won't get far. Their better combined arms tactics would mean they probably peter out roughly where they did in 1914, which ironically would deny France much of their industry and put the Germans on a slow course for eventual victory...

Plus, how many men are garrisoning the East in total? 1 million Germans, 1 million Poles, 500,000 Romanians, 200-300,000 Ukrainians? How many Russians would be opposing them in the reconstituted Red Army? Probably 3,000,000 million (though they would not be that mobile nor well trained).

For fun in this timeline, are the Poles a significant portion of any active fighting in the Caucasus? Do they become the Italy of ATL?
 
Okay, time for a gentle nudge.

This T/L is NOT ASB. It is low probability, maybe even very low probability, but it is NOT something that requires divine intervention.

If you have made comments and those comments have been acknowledged, but the author chooses to continue his vision of the events, please do not continue to hammer on the point(s). Either continue reading with a suspension of disbelief on the element(s) that you dislike, or walk away from the thread if it isn't shaping up to your hopes. Sort of like a book, don't like it anymore, leave it on the shelf.

This is a very important statement. No events in ATL happened so the value of a TL is entertainment or enlightenment. They don't have to be killed if one disagree with the probability of events and many "self-proclaimed experts" fail to acknowledge that the future is largely unpredictable. So is an ATL when it unfolds.
 
Because he is right. The Nazis entirely changing around their conduct of the campaign and loving their poor Slavic brothers isn't something that will happen just because the Poles showed up on their side. Furthermore it gets a bit hard to be civil when every time somebody tells you why your timeline is impossible, you just brush it off and go post what you think would happen, regardless of its plausibility of not, to your own justifications. Napoleon IV re-wrote an entire section of his "Imperious Chairman" timeline when the replies indicated that there was a consensus that a portion of it was unfeasible; here you are getting replies from somebody who clearly has studied the Eastern Front in great detail and several others and simply brushing them aside when they demonstrate that what you have written isn't plausible. Instead you just come up with an inane response and put one of your emoticons and brush it asides.

There are a few instances where there is a POD one considers unlikely from the onset (eg. Hitler would never put aside anti-slav sentiments to save Gemany from certain doom - even through he tried in OTL:rolleyes:).
But then, with Poland as an important strategic ally, it is increasingly more probable that the Germans would have to postpone anti-Slav sentiments.
I understand the wish to see if the TL can be taken on the path intended,
even if some other improbable events will have to be introduced. ANd they do happen. Also those that are completely insane,
And one should always be civil.
 
Yeah, it would be nice to see it start up again.

I'm a little burned out on this TL. I'm probably going to start a new ATL on a different topic, in a few weeks. I would however like to discuss the conclusion, ill throw out a few ideas.

Summer 1940: German Invasion of Low Countries and France. Main attack of German Army is through Belgium. French are pushed back, but regroup and halt the Germans at the Somme River. Attritional WWI style warfare sets in.

Spring 1941: German conquest of Hungary and Yugoslavia. Guerrilla warfare ensues.

Summer/Fall 1941: Axis finishes operations west of the Urals. Caucasus and Marmunsk are captured, partisan warfare prevalent.

Winter 1941: Japan attacks Pearl Harbor, Germany soon after declares war on United States.

Summer 1942: Germany withdrawals a large number of troops from the Eastern front and prepares for a "war winning" offensive in the west. The attack fails just short of Paris. The Allies, reinforced by American forces, steadily push the Germans back.

Fall 1942: German position on the Eastern Front begins to worsen due to renewed efforts by the Red Army and partisan attacks. Poland and Romania begin to doubt Axis victory. Rydz-Śmigły begins secret negotiations with the Western Allies. Hitler discovers this and launches Operation Panzerfaust to overthrow the Polish government. Poland, Romania, Ukraine and Belarus declare war on Germany. Polish Army, in Poland, is largely crushed and Warsaw is occupied. Rydz-Śmigły flees to Romania.

Spring 1943: Germany begins to collapse on all fronts. Hitler is assassinated by a group of German officers. Western Allies move into Germany and occupy Berlin. German troops withdraw from Eastern Europe.

Summer 1943: Polish forces liberate Warsaw and occupy Baltic States. Rydz-Śmigły establishes an Intermarium Federation of European States. In addition to this a new Russian government in Smolensk, under Andrey Vlasov, is established to counter resurgent Communist Forces. Western Allies back Poland.

Eastern Europe is dominated by Poland ends up looking like: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/c9/Mapka_miedzymorza.png or
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/9b/Międzymorze_(Intermarum)_1921-1935.png

Long Live Poland:p
 
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If you really want to Poland-wank it, you would need Germany not to fold so quickly. Perhaps a later US entry so that German relies more and more on Poland and Romania to defend the East, as they have to throw everything and the kitchen counter at the Wallies. Perhaps German wins a surprise victory in late 1943 due to superior tanks, local air superiority, and much of their industry greatly subsidized by the East in which it cannot be bombed.

Perhaps, 1944 is a bloody stalemate where US interest is waning, Germany is running out of men and employing Ukrainian mercenaries in increasing numbers, and France loses the will to continue fighting. Perhaps, in a diplomatic coup, the Wallies get Romania and Poland to switch sides in early 1945 to bring a swifter end to the war.

At this point, Germany has a mere half-million men garrisoning in the East, supported by 250,000 ethnic volunteers. They barely can fight the partisans stretching from the Urals. Romania's standing army is over 1.5 million men, and Poland's 3 million. When the tables are turned, the German reserves simply are not enough to stop 2 million Poles and Romanians, with a small Ukrainian contingent joining in on the fly in the Crimean Peninsula, from disarming the Germans in the East, while 1.5 million Poles quickly cut off German reserves situated close to the Polish border (which have almost no heavy equipment, the vast majority of which are defending German soil in the west.) Germany's reserve army could at best prevent Berlin from falling on the march, but little else. A general collapse occurs where the Germans are pushed to the Rhine and the have lost all of East Prussia. Within 4 months, the Poles take Berlin, Romania reaches Vienna, and western forces begin meeting their new eastern allies.

The result is Poland annexes East Prussia and German occupied territories in Russia. Romania gets to keep Hungary and Yugoslavia, as well as parts of Ukraine they were already given (i.e. Odessa. Sevestapol is made an open city to be shared between Romania and Poland.)

Germany is then split up into four different zones of occupation (Poland, US, France, and Britain) while Berlin is split into five (including Romania.)

___

Germany was a tough nut to crack OTL with the USSR. Without the USSR, it can easily become a massive bloodbath to the west of WW1 proportions, so with the right luck and strategy perhaps they can force the Wallies to either give up, or in a diplomatic coup, get Germany's allies to switch sides.

At least this way the Polish flag flies over both Moscow and Berlin :D
 
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True, though I wonder if it is more fun if they get dragged into the war or not. Maybe if Germany has a good 1941 against France Italy goes in thinking that they can press claims in Africa. I sort of like this simply because it increases the chances that the Wallies are stretched thin and thereby seek separate peaces with Poland and Romania, who otherwise are uninvolved in the war in the west.
 
True, though I wonder if it is more fun if they get dragged into the war or not. Maybe if Germany has a good 1941 against France Italy goes in thinking that they can press claims in Africa. I sort of like this simply because it increases the chances that the Wallies are stretched thin and thereby seek separate peaces with Poland and Romania, who otherwise are uninvolved in the war in the west.

Would Germany be able to deploy the Afrika Korps in this ATL? It seems like they will be stretched pretty thin. If not then the Allies will be rolling into Italy earlier.
 
Would Germany be able to deploy the Afrika Korps in this ATL? It seems like they will be stretched pretty thin. If not then the Allies will be rolling into Italy earlier.

Definitely. Before the US joins, the Germans are "winning" the war. Fighting in Africa would be mostly defensive for logisitical reasons (they wouldn't be able to send enough material to fight the British and the French.)

However, this is not WW1. Even if Germany gets repulsed, they probably seized the northern coast of France by the end of 1941. Warfare is mobile. Italy perhaps joins in shooting their bolt to early, not expecting the French to repulse the Germans at Paris in 1941 (which is not an open city, the fighting is house to house.) Even then, Paris still falls in 1942, and much of the fighting is against French COlonial troops, British, and whatever is left of the France as they retreat south. Perhaps Axis start being much more aggressive against French West Africa hoping to isolate France and their means of being resupplied through Toulon and such port cities in the south.

However, once the US enters, it becomes an attritional war. The Germans simply do not have enough to kick the Wallies off the continent and out of French West Africa. By the end of 1943, the Axis is kicked out of Africa entirely, though they likely have a strong performance on the continent with new tanks, aircraft, and still mostly green US troops.

So, by 1944, things are back in forth, but they are nasty for the Allies. Maybe they liberate Paris and land in Normandy and Sicily, knocking Italy out of the war and putting the pressure of the Germans. However, the losses will be horrendous. France probably was at the end of their manpower by 1942, while Britain would follow soon after in 1943. Now it is mostly a US war, and the US does not want to stomach the millions of dead that will take to force an unconditional surrender. Night bombing of German cities has stiffened German resolve to keep the Wallies out. Hence, if FDR dies early or something, we might have a realistic scenario where bringing Poland and Romania in, in exchange of them being the superpowers of Eastern Europe.
 
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