Maur
Banned
I'm not sure if Russia's early involvement in French matters changes anything of real significance. Napoleon rise wasn't dependent on it, neither France internal revolutionary developments... of course, we could discuss the possibilities there, but that's rather besides the point. And i'm not sure if lack of Napoleon and instead Bernadotte or Jourdan leading France changes that much - it's not like revolutionary France lacked good leaders, Davout, Soult, etc. French wars weren't due to the Napoleon either, as they were mostly defensive, and caused by revolution and not Bonaparte.I agree with most of your points, but I think this part ignores butterflies or rather necessary consequences of knocking Russia out of the French Revolutionary Wars: no Suvorov in Italy for one, and in OTL Napoleon's rise to power was a pretty unlikely set of affairs. You can argue that it was inevitable that Robespierre's terror must eventually suffer a Thermidor, you can argue more tenuously that the resulting state must be as corrupt as the OTL Directory and as vulnerable to being unseated by a successful general as strongman, but even then there are several other candidates beside Napoleon (e.g. Hoche) and the flap of the butterfly's wings makes it rather likely that Napoleon would have been killed or captured in ignominy on his Egyptian expedition, as he nearly was many times.
Well, neither do I. On the one hand, the PLC was torn anyway with conservative nobles still having a lot of power. OTOH, the progressive part of nobility that pushed for OTL constitution was under heavy influence of Enlightement which automatically makes them sort of Francophiles. OTOH, they still were totally different from Jacobines. OTOH, alliances are more of convenience than ideology and we have two rather important common enemies there (Prussia&Austria, at least as long the later holds Galicia).I'm not sure a reformed PLC would necessarily see radical France as a natural ally, given the important place of nobility in Polish and Lithuanian society and France's appetite with the guillotine. For a comparison, Britain was probably the most "enlightened" country in the region politically speaking before the Revolution, and yet only a minority of British progressives saw Revolutionary France as part of their ideological agenda rather than an extremist enemy of it.
Weren't British viewing France that way because of their traditional rivalry and balance of power thing?
So, it all depends on the timeline. How fast can Russia try to reassert it's power over PLC, compared to how fast Rev. France destroys Prussia and Austria, and tries to set up continental system in place, thus bringing Russia and PLC into their sphere of interest. And how fast PLC reforms.
(that said, continental system is hardly in PLC interest... its being potential exporter of things UK likes to import... but it wasn't even in France's interest)
So, imagine we have year 1800, with Austria and to less extent (still intact) Prussia's attention focused on the west and Russia getting it act back together after whatever internal turmoil prevented it from crushing the reform movement in the newly strenghtened yet probably still weak PLC.
Uh, this era has so many possibilities... What happens next?