Polish Constitution of 1791: Opportunity for an East European Meiji?

Maur

Banned
I agree with most of your points, but I think this part ignores butterflies or rather necessary consequences of knocking Russia out of the French Revolutionary Wars: no Suvorov in Italy for one, and in OTL Napoleon's rise to power was a pretty unlikely set of affairs. You can argue that it was inevitable that Robespierre's terror must eventually suffer a Thermidor, you can argue more tenuously that the resulting state must be as corrupt as the OTL Directory and as vulnerable to being unseated by a successful general as strongman, but even then there are several other candidates beside Napoleon (e.g. Hoche) and the flap of the butterfly's wings makes it rather likely that Napoleon would have been killed or captured in ignominy on his Egyptian expedition, as he nearly was many times.
I'm not sure if Russia's early involvement in French matters changes anything of real significance. Napoleon rise wasn't dependent on it, neither France internal revolutionary developments... of course, we could discuss the possibilities there, but that's rather besides the point. And i'm not sure if lack of Napoleon and instead Bernadotte or Jourdan leading France changes that much - it's not like revolutionary France lacked good leaders, Davout, Soult, etc. French wars weren't due to the Napoleon either, as they were mostly defensive, and caused by revolution and not Bonaparte.

I'm not sure a reformed PLC would necessarily see radical France as a natural ally, given the important place of nobility in Polish and Lithuanian society and France's appetite with the guillotine. For a comparison, Britain was probably the most "enlightened" country in the region politically speaking before the Revolution, and yet only a minority of British progressives saw Revolutionary France as part of their ideological agenda rather than an extremist enemy of it.
Well, neither do I. On the one hand, the PLC was torn anyway with conservative nobles still having a lot of power. OTOH, the progressive part of nobility that pushed for OTL constitution was under heavy influence of Enlightement which automatically makes them sort of Francophiles. OTOH, they still were totally different from Jacobines. OTOH, alliances are more of convenience than ideology and we have two rather important common enemies there (Prussia&Austria, at least as long the later holds Galicia).

Weren't British viewing France that way because of their traditional rivalry and balance of power thing?

So, it all depends on the timeline. How fast can Russia try to reassert it's power over PLC, compared to how fast Rev. France destroys Prussia and Austria, and tries to set up continental system in place, thus bringing Russia and PLC into their sphere of interest. And how fast PLC reforms.

(that said, continental system is hardly in PLC interest... its being potential exporter of things UK likes to import... but it wasn't even in France's interest)

So, imagine we have year 1800, with Austria and to less extent (still intact) Prussia's attention focused on the west and Russia getting it act back together after whatever internal turmoil prevented it from crushing the reform movement in the newly strenghtened yet probably still weak PLC.

Uh, this era has so many possibilities... What happens next?
 

Thande

Donor
Weren't British viewing France that way because of their traditional rivalry and balance of power thing?
In part, but there were other factors. Edmund Burke (a reformist Parliamentarian who was Irish) surprised the political scene with his Reflections on the Revolution in France, which broadly speaking lambasted the Revolution for committing such acts of tyranny and terror no matter how noble its ultimate goals.

So, imagine we have year 1800, with Austria and to less extent (still intact) Prussia's attention focused on the west and Russia getting it act back together after whatever internal turmoil prevented it from crushing the reform movement in the newly strenghtened yet probably still weak PLC.

Uh, this era has so many possibilities... What happens next?

In all likelihood it seems as though the Russians would still probably crush the PLC. But even if there was just a brief decade of enlightened rule in Poland, it makes a big difference: it might make Poland a romantic cause in the West (see Captain Nemo's original origin, multiply by a hundred) similar to that of Greece during the war of independence there, meaning that if a conflict like the Crimean War happens later, Britain and any at least vaguely progressive nineteenth century France would demand the restoration of the PLC at the peace.
 
This has reminded me of Rousseau's comments on Poland: he said rather presciently, among other things,

Jean-Jacques Rousseau said:
No matter what is done, before Poland has been placed in a position to resist her enemies, she will be overwhelmed by them a hundred times. The virtue of her citizens, their patriotic zeal, the particular way in which national institutions may be able to form their souls, this is the only rampart which will always stand ready to defend her, and which no army will ever be able to breach. If you see to it that no Pole can ever become a Russian, I guarantee that Russia will not subjugate Poland.

In a way he was right: even though the Commonwealth was dismembered and occupied for well over a century, it didn't exactly extinguish the Poles' national self-awareness. Perhaps, in the end, that's the best way to maintain a Poland: maintain a Polish identity.
 
After the first partition of Poland in 1772, and its status as a Russian protectorate between 1773 and 1789, it was clear to all involved that major reforms were needed to maintain Poland as an independent state. The Constitution of 1792 was a major improvement, greatly increasing centralization and modernizing archaic and useless institutions like the Sejm. Historically, this attempt at modernization was stopped by a Russian invasion and another partition, but what if it hadn't? Suppose Russia suffers a major defeat in the war it was fighting against the Ottomans at the time, and its attention is distracted from Poland, buying time for the new administration to be fully established. Poland was by this point long past its golden age where it maintained hegemony over Eastern Europe, but a strong Polish state in the 1772 borders might still be a major player in Eastern Europe, and a serious check to the OTL ambitions of the various ussians. What might be the effects of a successfully implemented Polish constitution?

it was not Polish Constitution ....http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Constitution_of_May_3,_1791
 
The problem with Polish Constitution was it was too progressive. Poland-Lithuania at that time was surrounded by absolute monarchies (Prussia, Russia, Austria) and those monarchs were terrified by French Revolution and a possibility of similar situation in their own backyard. And here it was, suddenly Poles created a constitution. And if Prussians or Austrians tried to do the same? It was unacceptable to those monarchs who really belived their power had been sanctioned by God.
Also, Prussia, Russia and Austria were really worried about PLC recovering. Russia didn't want to loose its puppet, Austria and Prussia were affraid that stronger PLC would want to get back the lands lost after the first partition in 1772. Russia had taken a part of PLC too, but it was a borderland, easy to dismiss, while Prussia had taken rich East Pomerania and Austria big chunk of Galicia with Lemburg (Lvov).
Therefore I do not see a chance for Prussia actually backing PLC against Russia - not on their own. Besides, Russia was too big, and PLC still too weak as an ally.
Jospeh II was rather progressive his own self, to the point that it was his undoing. But Austria didn't have the strength to fend off either the Russians or the Prussians.

I'm trying something similar to this in my timeline at the moment (/shameless plug).

I've avoided the French Revolution, so there's less fear of revolution among the autocrats and the Polish Constitution is less radical. Prussia gets support for war from its British ally, so the two of them are willing to join Poland against Russia. Austria is concerned elsewhere. And Poland goes for a OTL-French-style levée en masse to bolster its armies.

Even with the deck stacked in its favour, it's still going to take a fair bit of luck to come out on top. After all, Prussia isn't defending Poland for fun, they just want to turn it from a Russian protectorate to a Prussian one.
I've toyed with ideas similar to this in the past (one of my favorite eras, but i'm very rusty on it), and i feel the best way for Poland to survive in this era is for the French Revolution to be avoided. This is because the French were very friendly to the Poles. Keep the French in the game, and chances are that the Austrians would side with the Poles as well, or at least wouldn't side against them.


Okay, Polish-Lithuanian Constitution. And?
 

Maur

Banned
In all likelihood it seems as though the Russians would still probably crush the PLC.
Yes, seems so.

Lets move forward (although it's stretching these Russia's internal troubles a lot) to few months after Jena. We have destroyed Prussia and Austria is weakened. I can't imagine PLC not jumping into French war against them to regain lands lost in 1st partition - although the more important question is, if these anti-French war would happen with such situation at all. That's interesting question on its own, actually.

These 5 years make significant difference it seems.


I've toyed with ideas similar to this in the past (one of my favorite eras, but i'm very rusty on it), and i feel the best way for Poland to survive in this era is for the French Revolution to be avoided. This is because the French were very friendly to the Poles. Keep the French in the game, and chances are that the Austrians would side with the Poles as well, or at least wouldn't side against them.
I doubt it personally. France didn't have that much political influence in eastern Europe, it was Russia's playground (and Prussia and Austria to lesser extent). Certainly didn't help with 1st partition. Add to that that the France is declining (relatelively) due to demographics, while Russia and Prussia are gaining fast, and industrial revolution is going against it, too... 1800 are last years of French dominance, and even that's only due to revolution.
 
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