Poland's Future in a successful Tsarist Empire

What would be the outcome for Poland if the Russians had concentrated the bulk of their forces on Germany in 1914 and won the war?? Grand Duke Nikolai's manifesto statement ("unite in an autonomous state under the sceptre of the Russian tsar…free in faith, language and self-rule") seems very vague but also very much a break with traditional Russian policy to that point. We know Foreign Minister Sazonov was a loud voice for this, desiring a Slavic common front.

Would this have been an independent Polish state as a satellite to Russia, perhaps in a customs union and defence pact, or would this just be a measure of devolution still under the semi-direct rule of the Tsar?? Of course this envisions the incorporation of Galicia, Upper Silesia, Posen, and parts of West Prussia.
 
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marathag

Banned
If the War is over quickly, expect more Russification.
Stolypin had reforms, but not for the Poles. That kept really going til he was killed.
His successor, Maklakov, didn't spend much effort in rolling them back, either
 
Well, Russia had already been on the verge of collapse since the Russo-Japanese war. The taking of that much land would exacerbate the issue- and considering the fuckers wanted to take Constantinople and Kurdistan from the Ottomans, Russia wasn't going to make it another ten years after after the war.
 
Well, Russia had already been on the verge of collapse since the Russo-Japanese war. The taking of that much land would exacerbate the issue- and considering the fuckers wanted to take Constantinople and Kurdistan from the Ottomans, Russia wasn't going to make it another ten years after after the war.

You think they collapse within ten years even if they win the war?
 
Yup. Already a foregone conclusion from 1905 onwards.

And what precipitates it I wonder? Has to be a strong enough force to make insufficient any reforming responses from Petrograd. We know the Tsar prepared a letter of abdication during the 1905 revolution, but they managed to weather the storm with reforms.
 
And what precipitates it I wonder? Has to be a strong enough force to make insufficient any reforming responses from Petrograd. We know the Tsar prepared a letter of abdication during the 1905 revolution, but they managed to weather the storm with reforms.
I imagine an ethnic revolt. Probably in Poland, funnily enough- though it could be in any number of pies the Russians had their fingers in. Maybe another Russo-Japanese war (basically going to happen with the Tsar still in power)?
 
I imagine an ethnic revolt. Probably in Poland, funnily enough- though it could be in any number of pies the Russians had their fingers in. Maybe another Russo-Japanese war (basically going to happen with the Tsar still in power)?

hence the importance of this question then; what arrangement did the Russians have in store for Poland following a victory circa 1915
 
I imagine an ethnic revolt. Probably in Poland, funnily enough- though it could be in any number of pies the Russians had their fingers in. Maybe another Russo-Japanese war (basically going to happen with the Tsar still in power)?

if you’re a Pole, what do you think of being an independent country in a customs union with Russia, and constitutional provision made for pan-Slavic defence obligations, and probably some loose affiliation (whether personal union between King of Poland and the Tsar, or otherwise) with the Tsar?
 
if you’re a Pole, what do you think of being an independent country in a customs union with Russia, and constitutional provision made for pan-Slavic defence obligations, and probably some loose affiliation (whether personal union between King of Poland and the Tsar, or otherwise) with the Tsar?

Plus it would always go down that Russia’s military is what makes the expansion of this free Poland — into Galicia, Silesia, Posen and West Prussia — possible.
 
if you’re a Pole, what do you think of being an independent country in a customs union with Russia, and constitutional provision made for pan-Slavic defence obligations, and probably some loose affiliation (whether personal union between King of Poland and the Tsar, or otherwise) with the Tsar?
I'm not Polish, but I do know the Poles are fairly unhappy with the Russians. That's one of the main reasons there never was any real panslavic movement in Poland, the Russians were the main drivers of that idea (along with the Serbs), so the Poles just saw it as another way fro the Russian jackboot to press down on their neck.
 

BigBlueBox

Banned
I imagine an ethnic revolt. Probably in Poland, funnily enough- though it could be in any number of pies the Russians had their fingers in. Maybe another Russo-Japanese war (basically going to happen with the Tsar still in power)?
You severely underestimate the craftiness of Tsarist planners. Stalin's Oder-Neisse line was originally a Tsarist idea - ensure that Poland would be eternally dependent on Russia for protection from Germany.
 
Russian Empire was going face another revolution no matter how WW1 ends. Authocratic system was falling apart at some point. Victory of 1915/1916 would give perhaps another decade lifetime for absolutism. Then monarchy is either enforced reform as actual constitutional monarchy or total aboliition of monarchy and transfer to republic either actual democratic system, fascist or socialist.

Poland (and Finland too) would face further russfication attempt and there is going to be much of resistance. Poland might see even Fourth Uprising. When some form of revolution occurs in 1920's Poland and Finland probably gets more autonomy or even full independence but it totally depends details.
 
Russian Empire was going face another revolution no matter how WW1 ends. Authocratic system was falling apart at some point. Victory of 1915/1916 would give perhaps another decade lifetime for absolutism. Then monarchy is either enforced reform as actual constitutional monarchy or total aboliition of monarchy and transfer to republic either actual democratic system, fascist or socialist.

Poland (and Finland too) would face further russfication attempt and there is going to be much of resistance. Poland might see even Fourth Uprising. When some form of revolution occurs in 1920's Poland and Finland probably gets more autonomy or even full independence but it totally depends details.
Perhaps, but what solution to Poland do you think the Russians settle on in that scenario, even notwithstanding whether the Tsarist government eventually falls later (I would argue reform into a constitutional monarchy is just as likely, but alas)?
 
Russian Empire was going face another revolution no matter how WW1 ends. Authocratic system was falling apart at some point. Victory of 1915/1916 would give perhaps another decade lifetime for absolutism. Then monarchy is either enforced reform as actual constitutional monarchy or total aboliition of monarchy and transfer to republic either actual democratic system, fascist or socialist.

Poland (and Finland too) would face further russfication attempt and there is going to be much of resistance. Poland might see even Fourth Uprising. When some form of revolution occurs in 1920's Poland and Finland probably gets more autonomy or even full independence but it totally depends details.
At the bare minimum it looks like the opposite of russification is to be attempted, unless the words are completely hollow, but with the Foreign ministry backing them I kinda doubt it
 
Assuming Tsar Nicholas is kicked off the throne in favour of a more liberal relative, then I can see Poland resembling Finland. Before Tsar Nicholas implemented his policy of Russification which effectively stripped away Finland's autonomy, Finland had it's own army, postal service, currency and police. That's a lot of autonomy to give to what can only be called a client state, if not a autonomous province of Russia.
 
Assuming Tsar Nicholas is kicked off the throne in favour of a more liberal relative, then I can see Poland resembling Finland. Before Tsar Nicholas implemented his policy of Russification which effectively stripped away Finland's autonomy, Finland had it's own army, postal service, currency and police. That's a lot of autonomy to give to what can only be called a client state, if not a autonomous province of Russia.
and you think this strategy will be viable in the context of expanding Poland’s borders to include the affluent areas of Prussian and Austrian-held Poland?
 
and you think this strategy will be viable in the context of expanding Poland’s borders to include the affluent areas of Prussian and Austrian-held Poland?

Well, Franz Josef was loved by the Polish subjects of his empire because he passed laws which protected their cultural rights, so as long as the Tsar, whoever that may be, maintains those same protections, I think Poles in other countries would want to join Russia.
 
Most likely Poland would receive some degree of autonomy. Maximum something in line with old Polish Constitution of 1815 and almost equal to status of Finland in the empire (but without customs border, own currency and exemption from conscription).

But there was also another option. Actually Russian Imperial government was working on administrative reform which would bring some level of decentralization to the empire since 1915. This was done specifically in order to downgrade future Polish autonomy. Prime Minister Boris Stürmer proposed to split Russia into a dozen of oblast. Each oblast would consist of several gubernia (governorates), have its own representative assembly/local parliament which would have certain autonomy in local matters. All of Russian Poland according to this plan would constitute one oblast. So Poland would have lower autonomy than Finland. This plan was actually approved by Nicholas II and special law was to be drafted, but they didn't make it in time before the revolution.

In case Russian Empire would win WWI and annex parts of Austria-Hungary and Germany, most likely these parts would be united with Russian Poland in order to increase number of non-Poles there (and making it possible for central government to play ethnic minorities card against the Poles).
 
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