Poland war

Mrstrategy

Banned
When would be the best time for Poland to attack Germany because they are not going to let hitler attack them
 
I'm not sure if the Poles would be up for that. They could see war on the horizon and were prepping their military as best they could, but they didn't have a death wish. Also, they just weren't as aggressive as the Nazis were.
 
The problem is that any Polish war with Germany, either offensive or defensive, gives Stalin an opportunity to attack. As OTL showed, neither a nonagression pact nor an alliance with other major powers guarantee safety from a Soviet stab in the back.
 
It was possible for Poland to pull off a victory against Germany at any point from 1922-1934

In fact Pilsudski asked France if they would support Poland if they invaded in 1934, France Said no. If France had said yes, that was probably the best shot they were going to get.
 
1934, if they could get Italy and Austria in on it. But I really don't see Poland going through with it without French support.
 
The problem is that any Polish war with Germany, either offensive or defensive, gives Stalin an opportunity to attack. As OTL showed, neither a nonagression pact nor an alliance with other major powers guarantee safety from a Soviet stab in the back.

Without MR-pact, Stalin probably would not dare to make any backstabs.
 

yourworstnightmare

Banned
Donor
Without MR-pact, Stalin probably would not dare to make any backstabs.
He disliked the Poles enough. And it's not like Germany will say no to some help even if they wouldn't need it. It will be done faster.

Edit: the key ponts are
a) they need their back secure from Stalin, French support might be enough
b) French support
 
He disliked the Poles enough. And it's not like Germany will say no to some help even if they wouldn't need it. It will be done faster.

Edit: the key ponts are
a) they need their back secure from Stalin, French support might be enough
b) French support

He disliked everyone USSR had a border with, but until he got BFF with Adolf, did not openly attack anyone... well, almost, there was China...
Of course, Poles would not know that for sure, so your points stand.
 

Cook

Banned
In fact Pilsudski asked France if they would support Poland if they invaded in 1934, France Said no.

I'm afraid that seems to be just a long-lived myth, with no substance to back it up.

Pilsudski never had any reason to propose such a thing anyway; for Poland, Hitler came as a welcome improvement in relations over his predecessors; his very first foreign policy act as Chancellor was to end an extremely damaging (for Poland, not for Germany) Customs and Tariffs war with the Polish Republic, and negotiate the German-Polish Non-Aggression Pact that was signed in January of 1934. Hitler frequently praised Marshal Pilsudski, both publicly and in private and from 1934 until after Munich, Poland was seen internationally as the nation with the closest relationship with Nazi Germany; one of the outcomes of Munich was that Czechoslovakia was forced to surrender the Zaolzie region to Poland.

there was China...

Japan actually.
 
It was possible for Poland to pull off a victory against Germany at any point from 1922-1934

In fact Pilsudski asked France if they would support Poland if they invaded in 1934, France Said no. If France had said yes, that was probably the best shot they were going to get.

I'm afraid that seems to be just a long-lived myth, with no substance to back it up.

Pilsudski never had any reason to propose such a thing anyway; for Poland, Hitler came as a welcome improvement in relations over his predecessors; his very first foreign policy act as Chancellor was to end an extremely damaging (for Poland, not for Germany) Customs and Tariffs war with the Polish Republic, and negotiate the German-Polish Non-Aggression Pact that was signed in January of 1934. Hitler frequently praised Marshal Pilsudski, both publicly and in private and from 1934 until after Munich, Poland was seen internationally as the nation with the closest relationship with Nazi Germany; one of the outcomes of Munich was that Czechoslovakia was forced to surrender the Zaolzie region to Poland.

AFAIK Piłsudski did not explicitly propose a pre-emptive war, but he did send a fact-finding mission to enquire how France would react if Germany attacked Poland in 1933. At the time there were rumors of a possible Polish-German conflict, so maybe this could have been considered as an implied proposal of a pre-emptive war, but I don't know enough about 1930s diplomatic protocol to tell if this is a valid interpretation. It was determined that France was unwilling to react adequately if Poland were attacked. This led to the decision to normalize relations with Germany, Polish-German talks in late 1933 and the nonaggression pact in early 1934.
 
Last edited:

NoMommsen

Donor
About the situation 1933/34 :
One BIG reason for Poland to ... accept the Nazi offers ('private' intervention by Göring) was, the quite public diplomatic hassle around the 4-power-pact or "Mussolini"-pact in June 1933.
Even though it never came into power (noone ratified it) Poland feared, that France as well as the rest of the 'wallies' might sell poland for appeasement.
 

oberdada

Gone Fishin'
I don't see a reason for Poland to attack.
But..

A Polish-German war in the spring of 1934 could be an interesting TL. The Reichswehr (not yet Wehrmacht) wasn't yet much stronger than during Weimar times 100 000, so the 3.5 million strong SA would be the mayor force on the German side.
 
When would be the best time for Poland to attack Germany because they are not going to let hitler attack them
After consuming massive amounts of LSD?

Seriously???? Poland attack Germany?
Right. Let's throw away all possible support from any international powers and provide good rationale for another partition of Poland and extinction of the country for another few centuries.
 

Cook

Banned
It was determined that France was unwilling to react adequately if Poland were attacked.

That schism occurred in 1925 with the signing of the Locarno Pact; the French saw fit to sign the pact, which guaranteed the permanence of the Franco - German border, but did not insist on similar undertakings by Germany to France's ally Poland and article 2 of the Pact had "Germany and France, mutually undertake that they will in no case attack or invade each other or resort to war against each other."

While the Pact did allow the exception of "Action in pursuance of Article 16 of the Covenant of the League of Nations", the wording of article 16 itself fell well short of the automatic military response that the 1921 Franco - Polish alliance had stipulated. In fact, article 16 of the Covenant didn't require military action at all; only asking other states to subject an aggressive nation to "the severance of all trade or financial relations, the prohibition of all intercourse between their nationals and the nationals of the covenant-breaking State, and the prevention of all financial, commercial or personal intercourse." Even that was only after a vote in favour by the League.

This led to the decision to normalize relations with Germany, Polish-German talks in late 1933 and the nonaggression pact in early 1934.

The overtures to establish diplomatic ties, end the tariff war and sign the non-aggression pact were made by Hitler; doubtless to secure his back in the event of any French action, and also in the hope of drawing the Poles into a formal alliance later.
 
That schism occurred in 1925 with the signing of the Locarno Pact; the French saw fit to sign the pact, which guaranteed the permanence of the Franco - German border, but did not insist on similar undertakings by Germany to France's ally Poland and article 2 of the Pact had "Germany and France, mutually undertake that they will in no case attack or invade each other or resort to war against each other."

While the Pact did allow the exception of "Action in pursuance of Article 16 of the Covenant of the League of Nations", the wording of article 16 itself fell well short of the automatic military response that the 1921 Franco - Polish alliance had stipulated. In fact, article 16 of the Covenant didn't require military action at all; only asking other states to subject an aggressive nation to "the severance of all trade or financial relations, the prohibition of all intercourse between their nationals and the nationals of the covenant-breaking State, and the prevention of all financial, commercial or personal intercourse." Even that was only after a vote in favour by the League.

If the Locarno Treaties could override the Franco-Polish treaty, then a theoretical new Franco-Polish treaty could override Locarno in the same way.

The overtures to establish diplomatic ties, end the tariff war and sign the non-aggression pact were made by Hitler; doubtless to secure his back in the event of any French action, and also in the hope of drawing the Poles into a formal alliance later.

I was referring to Poland's motives for accepting the offer. Germany's motives were evidently as you stated.
 
I don't see a reason for Poland to attack.
But..

A Polish-German war in the spring of 1934 could be an interesting TL. The Reichswehr (not yet Wehrmacht) wasn't yet much stronger than during Weimar times 100 000, so the 3.5 million strong SA would be the mayor force on the German side.
The polish army wasn't a joke in 33/34 .. Hell it wasn't a joke in 39.

If Poland felt threatened and invaded Germany in some pretext of treaty violation, they just might win. I don't think France or England are coming to the aid of the Germans.

As others have said though, the wild card is the ussr, does Stalin pick the moment to get back at Poland?

If they were quick about it, it might be a quick war. The SA were over rated thugs. Not a real army.

It also would settle the Danzig question and corridor issue
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
Donor
Monthly Donor

I'm not sure if your response was serious or in jest, but I will work with it.

Preemptive attack in 1924 by Poland-

Possible advantages compared to any other year:

1) Poland's has had about five years to become a country and some time to recover and reorganize from the war with the Soviets.

2) France may not be out of the Ruhr yet

3) The Reichswher is down to its treaty size, and the experience of most German WWI vets is probably getting rusty. Rearmament and next-generation training has barely begun.

4) The Soviet Union is dealing with Lenin's death and succession, and is in the middle of NEP and basic reconstruction.

5) If it is still contemporaneous with the Ruhr occupation, Poland may gain some respect and positive notoriety in French military circles.

6) I suppose its better than any year in the 1930s or even the later 1920s, because some covert rearmament and reform happened in the later Weimar years.

Disadvantage of doing it that year:

7) Britain and US very peeved, thinking "wtf?." They will disapprove as heartily as they disapproved of the Ruhr occupation.

What war aims could the Poles hope to achieve by starting a war against Germany at this time?

a) Territories (which ones- Danzig, Upper Silesia, East Prussia, more?)

b) A "demilitarization" of Germany east of the Oder-Neisse?

The benefits seem rather sketchy & speculative.

Perhaps in the best case for Poland, it gains an "Eastern Locarno" and Britain and Italy are forced to pledge to the status quo in order to get the fighting to stop. It could probably only gain this from the Weimar Republic, and countries like Italy and Britain, if they retrocede conquered territories.

If Polish luck holds, France and Britain feel honor-bound to guarantee Polish and Czechoslovakian frontiers and continue to feel that way into the 1930s. Or even if Britain slinks back into unreliability, France remains firmly committed to alliance, remembering the Poles reliability against the Germans, in contrast to the British.

In the worst case for Poland, despite any short-term gains and diplomatic pledges by various powers to get the fighting to stop, there's a general feeling in Britain that Poland has a war of revenge coming, and its not a Europe-wide problem. France fatalistically goes along. Germany is rearmed enough to go to war with Poland and win in the early to mid-1930s, and there is no western aid forthcoming. Significant Polish majority lands are won by the Germans, and its inhabitants suffer under the the yoke of Germanization for a half-decade or more without a broader European war coming to their (eventual) rescue. Poland would probably have worse PR problems in Europe the more ethnic German majority territory they take in the war of '24 and have to deal with more insurgency in that case.
 
Top