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During the Deluge Sweden and Russia effectively partitioned Poland between themselves. Fortunately for Poland, the Tsar and King of Sweden couldn't agree on a settlement and ended up going to war with each other, giving Poland time to regroup and kick them both out. So what if the Tsar and King had worked out a partition deal? Replacing either stubborn leader by a sudden case of falling down a flight of stairs is acceptable.
I doubt the rest of Europe would just sit by and let Russia and Sweden gobble up a great power, so what would the reaction be from other rulers? Russia and Sweden aren't the best of friends either, so how long does their alliance of convenience last? A year? A month? A minute and a half after the ink has dried on the treaty? Discuss.