Poland partitioned 100 years early?

During the Deluge Sweden and Russia effectively partitioned Poland between themselves. Fortunately for Poland, the Tsar and King of Sweden couldn't agree on a settlement and ended up going to war with each other, giving Poland time to regroup and kick them both out. So what if the Tsar and King had worked out a partition deal? Replacing either stubborn leader by a sudden case of falling down a flight of stairs is acceptable.

I doubt the rest of Europe would just sit by and let Russia and Sweden gobble up a great power, so what would the reaction be from other rulers? Russia and Sweden aren't the best of friends either, so how long does their alliance of convenience last? A year? A month? A minute and a half after the ink has dried on the treaty? Discuss.


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I honestly doubt Sweden had enough manpower to keep its part of the PLC under control for long period of time without at least some support of the local noblemen. And even after Charles X Gustav was accepted as ruler by part of PLC magnates, noblemen and army, he was loosing their support quickly, mostly because of his refusal to get conformation of his postion by the Sejm and plundering done by Swedish troops. So even with Russian support I think rather sooner than later the Swedish troops would withdraw or be driven away from Poland, especially since Swedish-Russian conflict was, IMHO opinion, unevitable - Russia wanted free access to the Baltic Sea, and the way there led through Swedish or Swedish occupied lands.
So Poland might loose some territories (possibly Gdańsk/ Danzig), suffer even heavier losses but that would be it. Driving away the Russians from Lithuania might be more difficult.
However, PLC would have been able to count on HRE and Tatar support (like IOTL) - nobody wanted Sweden to become too powerful.
 
Sweden keeps the union with Lithuania and Russia takes the Ukraine, while Poland stays as an independent Kingdom. This way there is no allout war and everything settles down after the initial event.
 
Originally posted by Jurgen Wullenwever
Sweden keeps the union with Lithuania and Russia takes the Ukraine, while Poland stays as an independent Kingdom. This way there is no allout war and everything settles down after the initial event.

Very risky for Sweden. Poland woul try to recreate the Commonwealth; at least part of Lithuanian noblemen and magnates would sympathize with Poland - magnates would not enjoy so much power and freedom under Swedish rule as they had in PLC; Russia would not be happy with mega-Sweden keeping them off the Balcic Sea. And HRE generally was not happy with Protestant Sweden anyway.
 
Very risky for Sweden.
Considering that the Swedes' attempt to take Poland as well ended in disaster, Lithuania only should be better. And Poland is weakened by the Russian attack in the southeast.

We could see something similar to the Scanian war in the 1670s, but here as the Lithuanian war, where the war was undecided but France kept Sweden undiminished in the peace. Charles XI creates his army and welds Lithuania firmly to Sweden. The reduction of noble estates causes some uproar that leads to the Great Northern War in 1700. This war is still between the same countries (Denmark/Saxony/Russia against Sweden, but the territorial changes make some differences. Sweden without Scania but with Lithuania has a more eastern outlook, and Denmark is less belligerent due to only having 1645 to renege. (No butterflies here. :eek: )
 
The Habsburgs may have designs with Poland and Silesia from the getgo, from what I read they planned to attach Cieszyn with Lesser Poland on the US of Greater Austria, the Habsburgs might recreate Poland with parts of Silesia in it, we might see Poland go west if the Habsburgs get it.
 
The Habsburgs may have designs with Poland and Silesia from the getgo, from what I read they planned to attach Cieszyn with Lesser Poland on the US of Greater Austria, the Habsburgs might recreate Poland with parts of Silesia in it, we might see Poland go west if the Habsburgs get it.

Do the Hapsburg have the capability to stake such a claim at this point in time? They seemed willing to back the polish government against Sweden IOTL but not much more than that.
 
This would have given Russia a flying start when it comes to getting control over Balkan. Maybe Brandenburg-Prussia or some other state would try to grab the Swedish part? Depending on the outcome, it could lead history in various directions. Russia and Austria would clearly come in conflict, to the joy of the Ottomans. Lots of interesting butterfliies...
 
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