Scenario- France and Britain fed up with Russia's handling of Polish affairs declare their support for the rebels and send machinery and resources. Russia now hopeless sues for peace making Poland and Lithuania independent. Would the countries take up Republic or Monarchy?If monarchy who would be elected King?How would history of Europe change?
Poland-Lithuania become independant in 1864
- Thread starter filipdomanski
- Start date
That is a very abstract solution to an uprising which was, ultimately, extremely unlikely to get anywhere. It was already the less organized, less prepared and less successful of the two major Polish uprisings against the Russian empire in the 19th century (and the 1830 uprising was already severely weighed to the Russian side, Russians had more than double the strength on the field, etc.). Machinery and resources alone can't change that, and Russia had already gone to war with these two powers not long ago, so there was only so much they could intervene with.
France and Britain did make diplomatic notes to Russia requesting them to cease hostilities and negotiate with the rebels but that amounted to jack.
It'd just be a single country, only some members of the radical wing of the Czerwoni in Lithuania contemplated a separate Lithuanian state, though demands for autonomy for Lithuania was fairly universal among Lithuanian members of the uprising.
Frankly I can't imagine Poland not turning out as a republic in the end, there was no monarch or obvious monarchical line to restore to the throne and many of the Polish revolutionaries were quite radical. Really depends on which party comes out on top, though, since the leadership of the uprising was changing hands constantly. Though, if Britain and France are responsible for Polish independence through direct intervention then a British prince or even a Bonaparte could be alluring to maintain that relationship.
Poland will likely get ripped apart by the three great powers surrounding it, none of whom want it to continue existing, so Poland dies quickly anyway, but not before taking any balance of power and stability in Europe with it.
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This would make for an interesting timeline. Mainly because this is going to cause conniption fits amongst the Prussians and Austrians who ae going to see increased Polish agitation in their hown holdings in Poznan, Danzig and Galicia (one could see a scenerio where the Austrians might be mollified by the restored Kingdom being ruled by a cadet branch of the Habsburgs, but this will only go so far). This also likely solidifies Russia's position in the Prussian camp - and possibly Ausria too, once the wars of German Unification wrap up.
Of course, one of the problems you're going to run into is just how to get the French and British to support the Poles in the first place and, once that has been done, how they are going to practically help them - I suppose the Royal navy showing up in the Baltic is doable, but that's likely going to cause a much larger war in the process.
Desite this, it would be interesting to see what form Poland takes in this ATL - the Positivists didn't rise to prominence until the wake of the failed Warsaw rising, and so we're dealing cheifly with Romantic Polish nationalism here. Also, the Warsaw rebels actually went out of their way to include the city's Jewish population in the revolt, and this could well play a large part in post-war Polish-Jewish relations as well. Including Lithuania into the mix must be a bit much - I'm unsure how deep support for a renewed Commonwealth was in Lithuania at the time, outside of the gentry (certainly, as late as WW1, there were hopes to include Lithuania into the new Polish state - especially by leaders such as Pilsudski, but these efforts recieved a less than warm reception from the Lithuanian people themselves. Thoughthe situation could conceivably have been different 50 years prior)
Of course, one of the problems you're going to run into is just how to get the French and British to support the Poles in the first place and, once that has been done, how they are going to practically help them - I suppose the Royal navy showing up in the Baltic is doable, but that's likely going to cause a much larger war in the process.
Desite this, it would be interesting to see what form Poland takes in this ATL - the Positivists didn't rise to prominence until the wake of the failed Warsaw rising, and so we're dealing cheifly with Romantic Polish nationalism here. Also, the Warsaw rebels actually went out of their way to include the city's Jewish population in the revolt, and this could well play a large part in post-war Polish-Jewish relations as well. Including Lithuania into the mix must be a bit much - I'm unsure how deep support for a renewed Commonwealth was in Lithuania at the time, outside of the gentry (certainly, as late as WW1, there were hopes to include Lithuania into the new Polish state - especially by leaders such as Pilsudski, but these efforts recieved a less than warm reception from the Lithuanian people themselves. Thoughthe situation could conceivably have been different 50 years prior)
This Anglo-French campaign on behalf of Poland would be part of a general European war, almost by definition.
What will Prussia and Austria do, given their shares of partitioned Poland?
What will Prussia and Austria do, given their shares of partitioned Poland?
I really don't see any possibility for this to happen.
The Vistula Province (former Kingdom of Poland) had no sea border and was suurounded only by Prussia, Austria and Russia. Lithuania had a very short costline and no real seaport.
Prussia OTL supported Russia's suppression of the Poles in 1863 when the Chancellor Otto von Bismarck signed the Alvensleben Convention. That agreement, needless to say, did not please the West (and Russia itself minimized this agreement).
Austria (which had bad relations with Russia during that time) on the other hand actually did join France and Britain in giving diplomatic support to the Poles OTL, though they likewise ended up not giving military support. @सार्थक (Sārthākā) can probably provide more details as to why, but IIRC, one of the reasons for Austria not going to war with Russia during that time was that Italy was at the same time making preparations to go to war with Austria to take Trieste, South Tyrol, and Venice.
This will be, basically, an unorthodox mid-19th century world war. The fate of Poland would be a notable theme, but only one of many.
Which “machinery” (the only “machinery” available at that time were steam engines) and how exactly are they going to “send” it? By air? The same question goes for the “resources” in general. So this part is a pure ASB-style fantasy.
Then, for Russia to get “hopeless” in 1864 it would take much more than sending some weapons: the theater was substantially different than during the CW and so was the regional geopolitical situation. Well, and not to be forgotten, there were some trifles like a reasonably weak support among the Polish peasantry: Russian government just emancipated the serfs in the Polish-Lithuanian territories creating a conflict of interests between the nobility and “the masses”. Or the fact that neither Prussia nor Austria were interested in creation of the Polish national state (bad example for their own Poles).
To make the ling story short, this was a non-starter. BTW, Little Nappy, with all incoherent noises he was making, did not insist on creation of the independent Polish state, just on some arrangement within the Russian Empire: he, rather naively, kept counting on support of AII in his European adventures.
The solution in myhopinion, is for the Polish independent govern to anticipate some of the decisions they took too late; The key is Prussian neutrality; if they have it, Russian Baltic fleet is no match for English and French Navy;
What incentives do the Prussians have for that, especially since a restored Poland would claim the Prussian Partition territories?
And how exactly this British-French fleet is going to operate inland?
The upraising was nowhere close to the coast and after experience of the CW neither Britain nor France was looking at the next major military confrontation with Russia, especially in the situation much less favorable for them. Anyway, even during the CW record of the allied naval operations on the Baltic was not very impressive: a single isolated unfinished fort.
Polish government hardly could “anticipate” certain decisions because emancipation of the serfs on better conditions than those offered by the Tsarist government would alienate the nobility, which was a driving force of the uprising and, anyway, untrained peasants are not an army and there was no “grace period” for training them.
They are going to take a port near enought and nobility can be convinced if the right arguments are taken; untrained peasants are not an army but the can still fight little wars.
Free hand with Denmark and a promise guaranteeing Prussian lands against future Polish claims.
A pure fantasy on all accounts. You may start with a simple fact that on the Baltic theater the Russians (unlike Sevastopol) would have overwhelming numeric odds, their weapons already had been upgraded and the more or less significant ports tended to be fortified. Not sure which point would be "near enough" and to what exactly should it be "near" to provide an uninterrupted flow of weapons and ammunition in a serious volume. Convincing the Polish nobility to act against its own interests is an interesting idea (and I can sell you a very nice bridge if you believe in its practicality) and the "little" war could not be won in Poland/Lithuania, especially if the peasants were going to get more from Tsarist government without any fighting: it probably escaped you attention that the whole uprising was heavily relying upon the nobility and educated classes because an ongoing military reform was directly hitting nobility's interests (most of them not would just have to serve in the military but to serve as the soldiers due to the absence of the special military or university education) but the peasants did not have their situation changing significantly and were not too much into an "abstract patriotism" of the upper classes. Stefan Żeromski described their attitude as neutral to hostile to the uprising.
But all this is irrelevant because France was not going to be military involved and Britain could do little to nothing on the land. Aka, the whole premise is simply unrealistic.
We already had this very discussion, I did not think you were right back then, I don't agree with you today.
That's the answer pure fantasy, no chance in hell unless Russia is fully defeated, ASB in pure order.
Well, it seems I have to disagree with you too.That's the answer pure fantasy, no chance in hell unless Russia is fully defeated, ASB in pure order.
Like Thanos; I don't even know you.Well, it seems I have to disagree with you too.