Poland Invaded: The UK does Nothing

Geon

Donor
Does poland just give in to german demands without british and french support. Give up a corridor thru the corridor and danzig. A fight to the death means total defeat.

They don't have any allies at this point. The only reason the Poles fought in the first place was that they believed Britain and France would be coming to their aid any day. Unfortunately with the Ribbentrop/Molotov pact Poland knows it has no chance barring a miracle of stopping Germany. A deal of some kind would be its only (slim) hope for survival.
 
It might be quite sensible for the UK and France to not declare war, whilst at the same time making it very clear to Hitler that if he goes West, he'll have a problem. Either Hitler does not go to war, or he attacks Stalin, the two evil dictators are far too busy fighting each other to attack anyone else, and Britain and France can sell weapons to both sides and stab Hitler in the back if he is clearly losing. The end result of that is yes, Eastern Europe still falls to Stalin, but all the Jewish people west, north and south of Germany are safe, France is not occupied, and the UK doesn't grow hugely weak and owe lots of money to America. There are two dangers to that though-one, Hitler gets nukes first (unlikely due to his anti-semetism ) or two, Hitler beats the USSR and still has enough troops to come West in a case of victory disease. But assuming the USA still makes nukes in 1945 even Hitler would not be mad enough to get his Reich nuked, and perhaps a Cold War ensues-that or Hitler goes West and gets nuked.
 
The issue to me seems to be that even if the USSR surrenders there will still be massive insurrectionary movements. Hitler could have his hands full for some time pacifying eastern Russia.
 
They don't have any allies at this point. The only reason the Poles fought in the first place was that they believed Britain and France would be coming to their aid any day. Unfortunately with the Ribbentrop/Molotov pact Poland knows it has no chance barring a miracle of stopping Germany. A deal of some kind would be its only (slim) hope for survival.

Poland is signing a treaty that leaves economically dependent on a nation that has systematically ripped up every agreement they have signed. Its a choice of dying on your feet or dying on your knees.
 

Geon

Donor
It might be quite sensible for the UK and France to not declare war, whilst at the same time making it very clear to Hitler that if he goes West, he'll have a problem. Either Hitler does not go to war, or he attacks Stalin, the two evil dictators are far too busy fighting each other to attack anyone else, and Britain and France can sell weapons to both sides and stab Hitler in the back if he is clearly losing. The end result of that is yes, Eastern Europe still falls to Stalin, but all the Jewish people west, north and south of Germany are safe, France is not occupied, and the UK doesn't grow hugely weak and owe lots of money to America. There are two dangers to that though-one, Hitler gets nukes first (unlikely due to his anti-semetism ) or two, Hitler beats the USSR and still has enough troops to come West in a case of victory disease. But assuming the USA still makes nukes in 1945 even Hitler would not be mad enough to get his Reich nuked, and perhaps a Cold War ensues-that or Hitler goes West and gets nuked.

Hitler is no fool. He will be fully aware of who the Allies are selling weapons to. And I could fully see him preparing an attack against the Allies, but only after he has dealt with Russia.

Eastern Europe for the most part will fall to Hitler either by coup, agreement, or if necessary invasion. Hitler will need the resources, especially Romanian oil for Operation Barbarossa. Once Hitler starts his war with Stalin, and I would expect it to start in May, 1940 rather then 1941, I suspect it will be a long and bloody slog but ultimately I believe Germany would win. If Hitler attacks in 1940 the Russians are still recovering from the Winter War. In OTL Hitler gave the Soviets over a year to rebuild and repair. When Hitler attacked in 1941 Stalin was still not ready for war. Stalin was willing in June 1941 to do whatever it took to appease Hitler because he knew he wasn't ready for war at the time. Stalin was no fool either. He knew war would come with Germany sooner or later, but he needed it to be later to better prepare the Soviet Union. Some other factors to consider, the Luftwaffe has not been exhausted by a recent Battle of Britain, Hitler has successfully faced down the two other major powers in Western Europe twice-his popularity with the German people has to be going through the roof.

Also, consider Italy is not going to be in the war. Mussolini may send some "volunteer" units to help with guarding rear areas but if he is smart he will stay out of the war and act as a middle man when possible.

I believe the real fun will start once Hitler nears Moscow. Stalin will likely grit his teeth and beg the Allies for help. The Allies will join the war forcing Hitler to fight on two fronts How this would develop I leave to further discussion.
 
Meanwhile in Germany without large-scale war German economy goes down. People begin to be frustrated with Nazi government.

Now, the question is: Will the discontent in the populace over the dire economic circumstances grow quick enough to oust the Nazis before their planned invasion of the Soviet Union, possibly even preventing WWII altogether and eventually reintegrating Germany into the Western world again? Of course, Hitler is unlikely to give up his grip on power, but if something "happened" to him, there could be a lot of infighting among his potential successors.

With these two points coming together, could a conservative/militarist coup like the one we saw IOTL on 20 July 1944 against this new, weak Nazi leadership actually succeed?
 
One thing I see as certain, eventually Nazi Germany WILL invade the USSR. One of Hitler's main goals , if not THE main goal, was to secure "Living Space" in the East and wiping out "Jewish Bolshevism" and he can't do either with the Heer kicking its heels in Poland.
 
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