WI instead of the Robentrop-Molotov Pact, Germany secretly negotiates with Poland the return of the territories lost after WWI in the East to the newly created country? In exchange Germany would allow and support the Polish annexation of Lithuania (Poland and some territorial claims on Lithuania at the time). This way Poland would be compensated for the territories returned to Germany on its Western border and obtain a much more secure exit to the Baltic Sea.
So let’s assume that on the 23.08.1939, instead of OTL MR-Pact, it is signed in Warsaw an agreement between Germany and Poland containing the following main bullets:
- Return of Danzig, the corridor, and the more heavily german-etnic populated areas of West Prussia and Posen to Germany;
- A population exchange program on the swapped territories (Germans in Polish territory to settle on the German side of the border and vice versa);
- German acquiescence and support (diplomatic mostly) to the Polish annexation of Lithuania (As compensation for the territories lost to Germany);
- Polish entrance to the Axis – thus military alliance with Germany;
- German acceptance of moving the Eastern Polish border further to the East following a successful war against the SU (As compensation for Polish entrance to the Axis and participation in the invasion of the SU).
- Several economical e military cooperation measures, specially aiming to update the Polish military and, thus, preparing it for the future conflict against the SU.
On the 24.08.1939 Poland issues an ultimatum to Lithuania to deliver the claimed territories (Vilnius area mainly) and starts mobilizing its military.
Thoughts? What kind of POD could make this feasible? What reaction would come from the WA? And from the SU?