Poland Bzura 39 and Russian non invasion

Hi all! This has probably been done to death but anyways. Split in two parts:

1) Battle of Bzura. Supposig Poland had wom that had defeated the 8th Army is there any way in which the tide maybe could have been turned in the whole strategic picture v Germany..of course the Soviet invasion made it a done deal which means...

2) Supposing Poland had chased the German 8th Army away and beaten them in Sept 1939. Soviets may then get edgy and not invade especially considering 1920 Poland Soviet war.

So my question is three hold. Could Poland have won Battle of Bzura, could it have changed the whole strategic picture and might the Soviets have hesitated.

Assuming the Soviets did how far could Poland have pushed Germans back?
 
No way. Not unless they mobilized well in advance of German invasion and had adverse weather set in and had a lot of luck. In short, no.
 
The 8th army was quite important strategically but I suppose German air superiority gave them a huge advantage. Still had they achieved all objectives the invasion would have been disrupted to say the least I imagine.
 
Poles might have a chance to defeat the 8th Army, if their attack was better coordinated, if there was a single commander of Polish forces in the area and with some luck. However, that wouldn't have changed the end of the campaign that much. At the time of the battle Army "Poznań" was the last more or less intact Polish army. All other Polish armies were pushed back, suffered very heavy losses or were effectively destroyed. With 8th Army defeated (and it was the weakest of the German armies, with only 4 infantry divisions), Germans still had 4th Army coming from north and 10th Army in south, finishing army "Prusy", with part of its forces already at Warsaw's gates. 10th Army had 2 armoured, 3 light and 2 motorized divisions - bloodied (especially armoured divisions) and spread over relatively large area, but still much faster than Polish units so German, with their good communication, would have been able to quickly organize first defence and then counterattack.
The best end Poles might have counted for, IMHO, was to get most of Polish forces (Army "Poznań", remains of armies "Pomorze" and"Łódź") across the Vistula river and to Warsaw and Modlin. That would make Poles resist longer and Germans suffering higher losses, but, eventually, they would win. Any successful counteroffensive would have been, IMHO, impossible.
 
Yes getting back to Warsaw in decent shape may well have been the ultimate aim, certainly by the turning of the tide in Bzura it was for sure the best case scenario. 8th Army though was very important strategically speaking or rather important at least. It covered the left flank of the 10th army after all so defence and preventing a Polish triumph at Bzura seemed potentially quite important.
 
It would have bloodied the Germans and probably dragged out the Polish campaign longer, but there it won't stop the Germans from ultimately beating them. So no, it does not change the strategic picture.
 
It completely changes the the pan-European strategy.

Poland cannot defeat Germany on her own, however, Poland could, absent Soviet intervention, realistically delay the Germans long enough for their Franco-British allies to start hammering Germany down.

The Germans absolutely needed to win quickly in Poland. Even if they manage to eventually defeat Poland on their own and turn to focus the Franco-British front, the costs of a longer German-Polish fight are enough to leave them crippled against Western Allies that would be stronger than they were when OTL's battle of France began. Given how close OTL's battle of France was, I think Germany can only prolong the pain here, she cannot realistically win.

Of course, this would look disturbingly like WW1 to the Germans, and the Germans really didn't want to repeat WW1 - very likely Hitler faces a significant risk of overthrow in this scenario.

Also, whether Stalin continues to stay out of the war, even as Britain and France slowly ground down the Germans, is a whole 'nother question.

fasquardon
 
Kind of agree with fasquardon on this. Yeah Germany is much bigger than Poland but it could have taken a major toll on Germany, could have given the Soviets pause for thought and may have changed the whole thing. I did wonder when I first made this thread if there was a way Poland could have won at Bzura and then shot through, gaining ground gradually advancing through Poland.
 
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