It already happened in OTL in the years 1440-1444 and 1492-1501 that Poland and Lithuania had separate monarchs from the same dynasty, but such situation had not lasted long. So POD is Jogaila had three instead of two surviving sons with Sonka (they already had 3, one just died as infant)-Vladislaus, Casimir and Alexander (born 1424, 1426, 1427). Vladislaus dies in Varna like IOTL, Casimir takes Lithuanian throne in 1440, Alexander is destined to join clergy, but after death of Vladislaus, he had better perspectives. OTL interregnum lasting 3 years would not happen IOTL with two Jagiellon candidates available, say Casimir can't reach agreement with Lithuanian magnates and bishop of Cracow, thus Alexander is elected, Poland and Lithuania once again are ruled by two brothers. Such situation could stick for decades, and maybe even continue in next generations with two separate lines of House of Jagiellon. How would situation develop? With monarch residing in Lithuania, could Grand Duke keep more power? Could Lithuania survive wars with Moscow hands without extensive Polish help? Poland would not be affected as much, initially at least-Lithuania did not participated in war against Teutonic Order, although question of election could be interesting without personal union of hereditary GDL and elective Kingdom of Poland, still, as long as there are royal sons around, election should be pure formality.
Poland and Lithuania in dynastic union
- Thread starter Jan Olbracht
- Start date
-
- Tags
- jagiellons lithuania poland
Depends on a variety of factors, but not many changes immediately. In OTL, following Casimir's agreements with the Lithuanian nobility upon taking the throne of Poland, Lithuania and Poland only shared a monarch and were completely autonomous otherwise - they did not help in each other's wars and only tenuously cooperated together, even less than normal, non-PU allies were expected to cooperate.
Absolutely. With every single Grand Duke of Lithuania from 1440 to 1795 "ruling" it from Krakow or Warsaw, only visiting it once every few years and leaving the rest of the domestic and foreign policy matters to the local institutions, Lithuania was effectively an oligarchy run by a few select families of magnates through the Council of Lords. The Grand Duke being constantly present in Vilnius eliminates this development from ever happening.
It's hard to say how Lithuania would develop in such a scenario, given that its entire early modern era was completely defined by oligarchic Council of Lords rule - it could turn into Russian type despotism or it could be a bog standard feudal monarchy, and maybe shift into European absolutism if it lives until that far. Really depends on what monarchs independent Lithuania will get. A series of weaker Grand Dukes would lead it towards Western style rule, a series of tougher dukes or the takeover of an Orthodox dynasty could lead it towards Russian type government.
Help? What help? When Poland demands a a Union of Lublin just to start giving help, that's the question you've got to raise...
If anything, being in a personal union with Poland (pre-1569) was actually a hindrance to the Lithuanian war effort rather than a boon - and it came down to Alexander Jagiellon. His decision to leave Lithuania to assume the throne of Poland in the middle of a war with Moscow, and, just to make it worse, take the duchy's treasury with him, was a death knell for Lithuania in the 1500-1502 war with Moscow - without a monarch and without a treasury, Lithuania suffered its worst defeat in its history up until that point, losing a good chunk of their territory, and they never recovered from that loss, leading to the Union of Lublin a few generations later.
Without Lithuanian grand dukes leaving the country for self-serving magnates, practically decapitating it as a result, it would be much more competent in domestic and in military affairs, so it's likely that the Muscovite-Lithuanian Wars would be a much closer ordeal than they were in OTL. Of course, sooner or later, Moscow would gain the advantage - Lithuania being raided by Crimean Tatars + Russia can easily expand east while Lithuania is bottled + a naturally higher population + higher centralization with Oprichnina and similar reforms = a bad time for Lithuanians once these advantages start accumulating. However, if something similar to the Time of Troubles still happens, and Sweden still rises to become a rival to Russia, then I could definitely see Lithuania survive to the 17th century and onward.
It is true Alexander betrayed his allies in the middle of war, although for him, gaining Polish throne was crucial in long term, his brother Sigismund frequently used Polish troops and resources during his wars with Moscow (OTOH he himself was largely responsible for these troubles-pissing off Mikhail Glinsky was bad idea).
I wonder if ITTL Casimir, Grand Duke of Lithuania would be able to join his brother, Alexander King of Poland in war against the Teutonic Order? IOTL Grand Duchy of Lithuania, run by magnates, was closer to joining war on TO side against Poland, only Samogitians fought on Polish side, blocking movement of TO troops from Livonia to Prussia. If Casimir has real power in GDL, he should be able to do it, although he'll risk assassination by enraged magnates propably.
Casimir being a real Grand Duke of Lithuania does not resolve the main reason why Lithuania did not join that war in the first place - because of the Polish-Lithuanian conflict over Podolia.
It depends on what Casimir's opinion on the Podolia conflict and the Thirteen Years' War is - since in this scenario, until in OTL, he would have no personal interest in having Poland help Lithuania (as he would not be King of Poland), his stance may be very different.
Alexander would rather not start war against TO without ensuring at least Lithuanian neutrality, IOTL Casimir IV made compromise first, renouncing Polish claims to Volhynia before going to war. ITTL either something like this would happen (mother of Alexander and Casimir should still be alive, could mediate between them) or there would be no war.
What about another option-John Albert and Alexander, sons of Casimir IV, live longer and have surviving sons-so13 Years War is already over and magnates of GDL grew in power during reign of Cas IV, how would situation develop? Alexander continue war against Moscow, his friend Glinski has no reason to rebel and flee to Moscow, like he did during Sigismund's reign, meanwhile John Albert , who died during preparations to another war with TO, beats Grand Master and enforce again homage of Prussia..
That's also a possibility, though I believe there wouldn't be too many differences from the original scenario long-term.
I'll return to "three sons of Jogaila" scenario, but with some modifications: there are still 3 Jagiellon brothers (Władysław, Kazimierz, Aleksander) but oldest one dies before he left to Buda in 1440 and never became Władysław of Varna. Remaining brothers are busy in Cracow and Vilnius. Kazimierz is elected King of Poland, then Žygimantas Kęstutaitis is assassinated in Vilnius, brothers go to Lithuania, after long negotiations with elites of GDL Kazimierz agrees to make Aleksander Grand Duke, keeping title of Supreme Duke. In meantime Lazar Branković (who was main candidate to Hungarian throne alongside Władysław before Ladislsus the Posthumous was born) gets the throne of Hungary (and he is the one, that need to fight civil war against supporters of Elizabeth of Luxembourg and her son).
Thus King of Poland would not waste resources fighting in Hungary, would not ruin Royal treasure and would not pass Crown owned lands to nobles as lien, not needing cash in hurry (that in the long run reduced King's income). That would make significant difference in 1454...
Thus King of Poland would not waste resources fighting in Hungary, would not ruin Royal treasure and would not pass Crown owned lands to nobles as lien, not needing cash in hurry (that in the long run reduced King's income). That would make significant difference in 1454...
Is retaining the Supreme Duke title purely symbolic or is Alexander truly subject to Kazimierz? Will the two countries support each other more or less than OTL?
ITTL brothers trust each other enough to make it work like during time of Jogaila and Vytautas. Poland would not receive help from GDL during war with Teutonic Order , like IOTL, but having money to hire mercenaries, Kazimierz would not need to mobilize nobles of Greatet Poland during harvest ,and would not need to pay them with priviledges, but that is not the most important thing-having better troops he'd win ATL Battle of Chojnice, finishing Teutonic Order quickly. At the time of Chojnice Teutonic Order controlled only 3 castles, all other were captured or destroyed by rebelels and through Chojnice mercenaries and volunteers from HRE came to Prussia, other roads were blocked (including sea).
I'm afraid that the picture was reverse. The Tatars were more often acting against Tsardom, even burned Moscow during the reign of Ivan IV and Oprichnina was a "reform" that resulted in a serious destruction of Russian economy (the Oprichniks had been routinely and systematically looting a countryside and the cities as well), considerable human losses (Sack of Novgorod was just a single big "project" but Ivan's reign resulted in a loss of something like 20% of a population) and weakening of its military power (execution of the experienced military leaders, financial destruction of a big part of the non-oprichnina nobility). As you may notice, the Livonian wars saw increasing deployment of the low-quality nomadic troops (Kasimov Tatars, etc.).
Sweden was an early rival not as much to Russia but to Lithuanian: early Swedish-PLC wars had been mostly about the Livonian territories held by Lithuania. IIRC, Lithuania was getting a minimal help from the King which echoes what you wrote about similar earlier situations.