Poland and Czechoslovakia vs. Germany, 1938

How Soviets react to military Alliance of Poland-Czech ?
Will Soviet see them more threat than Germany?

This is the real problem I see with this Alliance. First off, the Soviets and the Polish were at odds. Without Poland giving up a large swath of her Eastern territory, they cannot be reconciled and the Soviets won't be willing to support or help them.

Czechoslovakians, on the other hand, were quite cozy with the Soviets. Their cooperation with the Polish would probably be quite heavily influenced by this.
 
THE Border to Austria was not fortified to a great extent, so there was an alley of attack for Germany into Czechoslovakia.

It might not be a lightning war as 1939 against Poland, but Germany has the larger industrial and population base - in the long run. With some good diplomacy Germany could get the Slovaks dropping out of the war.

France probably would want to jump in, but it would do nothing without British consent. The Brits in OTL had reeasoned that the German demands against Czechoslovakia were somewhat justified (Sudetenland was German populated/mostly) - this same spirit would probably prevent them from wanting to go to fight about something that is a limited conflict (even otl first the Sudetenland was annexed too). While Germany can be seen as aggressor versus the Czechs, Poland would be seen as agressor vs. Germany - as in 1938 the German Polish non agression treaty was still in force. So France woulod have a hard time to make the British act.
This brings up an interesting and somewhat troubling point: the popular perception of the situation abroad would be very different if German agression was checked so early, before its armies had the change to wreak utter havoc accross Europe. They say history is written by the victors but if Germany loses this war, it might well be seen as a victimized nation pushed to desperation rather than the aggressive power that it truly was, at least in the view of some nations.
 
This brings up an interesting and somewhat troubling point: the popular perception of the situation abroad would be very different if German agression was checked so early, before its armies had the change to wreak utter havoc accross Europe. They say history is written by the victors but if Germany loses this war, it might well be seen as a victimized nation pushed to desperation rather than the aggressive power that it truly was, at least in the view of some nations.


In particular, he hasn't claimed any territory not inhabited by Germans, and while he is being nasty to the Jews, he isn't exterminating them - and if he falls in 1938, no one will ever know that he was going to. Expect him to be seen as a basically sympathetic figure, even if wrongheaded on some matters.
 
Originally posted by Richter of Manthofen
While Germany can be seen as aggressor versus the Czechs, Poland would be seen as agressor vs. Germany - as in 1938 the German Polish non agression treaty was still in force. So France woulod have a hard time to make the British act.

Well, if Poland declares earlier that in case of German aggression against Czechoslovakia Polish Army will help the Czechs and the non-aggression pact will be considered invalid, I do not think Poland will be seen as an aggressor. After all, the Poles did warn the Germans who didn't have to attack Czechoslovakia. However I agree that it will be hard to make Britain take part in the war. I have my doubts if France will be initially interested in actual fighting, besides selling weapons and other supplies to Polish-Czechoslovakian alliance (possibly with discount;)). If the Poles and Czechs resist long enough and Germans start having very serious problems with their economy then I think there might be an anti-Nazi coup or French intervention against seriously weakened Germany.
 
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